NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[Dr_Who]

Hey RAbbi, you are scaring the living daylights out of them. Stop it! .. LOL

[biker]

Doom and gloom everywhere. EVERY commentator is negative about EVERYTHING. There is not a positive word to be heard in the market place. I think the bottom is approaching.

Doesn't mean to say we wont bounce along the bottom for quite a while however.

Unless of course, we have a paradigm shift, and the capitalist/financial framework of the world as we have know it is on the way out. Now, when have we heard that before?

[Casa del Energia]

Doom and gloom everywhere. EVERY commentator is negative about EVERYTHING. There is not a positive word to be heard in the market place. I think the bottom is approaching.

Doesn't mean to say we wont bounce along the bottom for quite a while however.

Unless of course, we have a paradigm shift, and the capitalist/financial framework of the world as we have know it is on the way out. Now, when have we heard that before?

Agree - it looks like the 'business cycle clock' is at 6 O'clock, doom proclaimed from every parapet, ramparts breached and strewn with the corpses of fallen traders, the apocalypse is upon us and the money traders in the temple have been admonished yet again - - - then chances are that we've hit bottom: MacDunks tide is almost fully out and he's strolling along the beach examining some very nice road kill.
So - we are talking NZO leveling out at 90c and PRC at 80c ? - that would be my guess.

[dsurf]

Agree - it looks like the 'business cycle clock' is at 6 O'clock, doom proclaimed from every parapet, ramparts breached and strewn with the corpses of fallen traders, the apocalypse is upon us and the money traders in the temple have been admonished yet again - - - then chances are that we've hit bottom: MacDunks tide is almost fully out and he's strolling along the beach examining some very nice road kill.
So - we are talking NZO leveling out at 90c and PRC at 80c ? - that would be my guess.

NZO bottomed at around $1.08 last month? Dow etc has retested major bottom overnight & bounced suggesting a possible bottom. Traders are talking oil has hit near bottom. This thread has become overwhelmingly -ve suggesting capitulation. OPEC panicking & will cut supply. Oil investment dropping suggesting tightening supply looking forward. Time to buy not cry

[Casa del Energia]

NZO bottomed at around $1.08 last month? Dow etc has retested major bottom overnight & bounced suggesting a possible bottom. Traders are talking oil has hit near bottom. This thread has become overwhelmingly -ve suggesting capitulation. OPEC panicking & will cut supply. Oil investment dropping suggesting tightening supply looking forward. Time to buy not cry

Personally, not really thinking negatively - just trying to make a little sense of these times. And perhaps a little wishful thinking - have been holding cash back looking for 'the right time' - - which is probably a foolish thing to attempt on my part as there is no predictability in this present world of chaos.

[dsurf]

Personally, not really thinking negatively - just trying to make a little sense of these times. And perhaps a little wishful thinking - have been holding cash back looking for 'the right time' - - which is probably a foolish thing to attempt on my part as there is no predictability in this present world of chaos.

May I suggest you use the VIX as a guide to when the chaos may be settling or moderating. Most economic commentators are suggesting bad news priced fully in however confidence (re buying support) may not appear til the banks etc stop reporting large losses & writedowns. Most are suggesting 1Q09.

[Casa del Energia]

May I suggest you use the VIX as a guide to when the chaos may be settling or moderating. Most economic commentators are suggesting bad news priced fully in however confidence (re buying support) may not appear til the banks etc stop reporting large losses & writedowns. Most are suggesting 1Q09.

I've never paid attention to it - but if you really think it's a useful indicator (for giving an indication of when the 'market' is calming down) I'll give it a go. Cheers.

[Crypto Crude]

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...175#post234175

Sweet revenge eah...

.^sc

[Nitaa]

Maybe some or no one will agree with me here but with the price of oil continuing to fall it is making nzo look better and better. Sure it would have been nice to have another year of $100 plus oil prices but it isnt so. surely what must happen is consolidation where the weak dissapear or get gobbled up by the cash rich companies. The longer or further oil drops the less attractive the spec companies are. Lets not forget the cheaper oil rigs will become..

PRC is likely to get hammered or stay low for at at least 2 years and maybe up to 5 on the basis of lower demand especially if we have a long lasting recession or dare i say it depression. Kupe i think we are quite fortunate because we will have proven revenue that is tied into inflation.

On that basis, nzo has no guarentee short or medium term but if you are willing to hold up to 5 years or longer then i think your investment would be quite fruitful.

Question or views please. What do you think of nzo buying or partnering with the likes of awe, ppp etc into having their own off shore rig? Not sure what the cost is but if its within the reach then it would make a lot of sense especially if they want to make swiss cheese out of the taranaki and canterbury basin. In other words, why not look to buy or have a rig built for such a purpose. NZO if they arent already should look at both up and downstream opportunities.

In saying all that what is DS's vision or nzo's mission statement.

[sideline]

Question or views please. What do you think of nzo buying or partnering with the likes of awe, ppp etc into having their own off shore rig? Not sure what the cost is but if its within the reach then it would make a lot of sense especially if they want to make swiss cheese out of the taranaki and canterbury basin. In other words, why not look to buy or have a rig built for such a purpose. NZO if they arent already should look at both up and downstream opportunities.

If you buy a rig that can do all the jobs around NZ and AU you need to go pretty high spec because of
the deep waters around Barque.
At the same time that would be complete overkill for the shallow waters of Taranaki.
Better to stay nimble and hire rigs as required. Their day rates should come down
considerably with the sharp decline of the oil price from it's peak levels.