NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[KentBrockman]

... My guess is that if a TO is to happen[always no guarantees] it will be completed before end of march....

It seems to me that there is a likelyhood of NZO attempting to do a takeover on the cheap. This may not be a smart move. A takeover offer needs to be outright convincing, a low ball opportunistic offer runs the risk of not being successful.

Have a look at Cooper's recent takeover attempt of Incremental. They tried an opportunistic low ball offer and are now stuck with a quarter of Incremental, without control and without having access to Incremental's cash flow.

[fish]

It seems to me that there is a likelyhood of NZO attempting to do a takeover on the cheap. This may not be a smart move. A takeover offer needs to be outright convincing, a low ball opportunistic offer runs the risk of not being successful.

Have a look at Cooper's recent takeover attempt of Incremental. They tried an opportunistic low ball offer and are now stuck with a quarter of Incremental, without control and without having access to Incremental's cash flow.

My thoughts about this takeover reflect a very limited experience of nz takeovers-eg TTP and Shell/Fletcher energy -and I could easily be wrong in this situation.

NZO might now has control of the actions of ppp through this 15 % stake and that held by its directors-?havnt some been buying big stakes recently . That might be sufficient for its purposes at the moment .

If I compare it to the TTP takeover of minority shareholders all that needs to be done is for PPP to pay no dividends ,spend ppp cash on overseas assets-and the rest of the shares could come cheaply !
Of course I could be completely wrong and they could do a shell-make a big offer that wont be refused !

[digger]

My thoughts about this takeover reflect a very limited experience of nz takeovers-eg TTP and Shell/Fletcher energy -and I could easily be wrong in this situation.

NZO might now has control of the actions of ppp through this 15 % stake and that held by its directors-?havnt some been buying big stakes recently . That might be sufficient for its purposes at the moment .

If I compare it to the TTP takeover of minority shareholders all that needs to be done is for PPP to pay no dividends ,spend ppp cash on overseas assets-and the rest of the shares could come cheaply !
Of course I could be completely wrong and they could do a shell-make a big offer that wont be refused !

The hole in this arguement is that PPP directors have a large stake in the company,so why would they engineer it to destroy market preceived value to get taken out cheaply.It would make since if directors had no stake in the company.Also NZO needs all of the company to have the assets of the company---the cash in the bank and the acreage in place and future assets.
Digger

[sideline]

The hole in this arguement is that PPP directors have a large stake in the company,so why would they engineer it to destroy market preceived value to get taken out cheaply.It would make since if directors had no stake in the company.Also NZO needs all of the company to have the assets of the company---the cash in the bank and the acreage in place and future assets.
Digger

Maybe the main aim for the moment is to get control between NZO and the friendly PPP directors
above 50.1% - that's enough to control the company and prevent any other predators on getting their
hands on PPPs cash on the cheap.

I remember a NZO AGM years back where TR was asked why NZO was still holding PPP shares and
he answered along the lines: NZO's interest in TUI was only 12.5% and together with PPP's 10% it made
a more meaningful stake. He said the cross holding was important to block any cheap takeovers of PPP ..

[fish]

The hole in this arguement is that PPP directors have a large stake in the company,so why would they engineer it to destroy market preceived value to get taken out cheaply.It would make since if directors had no stake in the company.Also NZO needs all of the company to have the assets of the company---the cash in the bank and the acreage in place and future assets.
Digger

Hi Digger ,
All I know is that companies can play all sorts of games when they have control of a company-SEA /TTP was in a similar position of majority control,lots cash in the bank-which they spent in Hong kong- and managed to get the minority shareholders out cheaply-well under NTA -the game took many years to play out .
Once nzo have control of PPP they dont need to make a complete takeover-just wait long enough and more of the shares can be bought cheaply . In a few years time they take out the few remaining minorities-including the director shares at a much greater price-if i remember ttp took out a lot of the minorities at 44 cents or less and then the remaining shareholders were offered more a year or two later (a few of us got more through arbitration-which TTP appealed against and lost )

[777]

Oil back up to $40 pb.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/com...rgyprices.html

[Lion]

Oil back up to $40 pb.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/com...rgyprices.html

That WTI price shows a 23.7 % increase overnight!! This is huge, even in the current volatility.

Here's another interesting figure . . .
"World oil demand will average 86.6 million barrels in the first quarter of 2009, down 0.2% from a year earlier, before recovering to unchanged in the second quarter, the International Energy Agency said in a December 11 forecast."

So this is demand destruction?? Down just 0.2% then unchanged!

Well my opinion (and I'm sure it's no worse than many so-called experts and commentators) is there's a big rebound coming in the oil price, and quite soon.

Happy New Year everyone.

[Balance]

Oil drops from US$145/barrel to under US$100/barrel.

Along the way down, many keep on screaming -'It will reverse soon. Buying opportunity.'

Any bounce, however small, is greeted with - 'Told you so! It's reversing!'

Meanwhile, oil continued its drop - to under US$40/barrel.

Be careful. Be very careful

Heard the same thing back in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

.

[Nitaa]

Oil drops from US$145/barrel to under US$100/barrel.

Along the way down, many keep on screaming -'It will reverse soon. Buying opportunity.'

Any bounce, however small, is greeted with - 'Told you so! It's reversing!'

Meanwhile, oil continued its drop - to under US$40/barrel.

Be careful. Be very careful

Heard the same thing back in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

.

Balance. Seems like a little scaremongering and perhaps you are looking for another entry into this fairly solid stock.

Most of what you have said above have to a small degree already caught out the ones who thought prices have rebounded etc. In saying that without looking at raw data i beleive nzo has gained sometrhing like 10% this year. What makes this stock so attractive is the BALANCE (no pun intended) SHEET along with Kupe and future prodution and potention of tui permit. Pike has likely been overstated and most will know and expect next year coking coal prices to take a savage beating. All in all i think investors will need to be more careful of other investments or stocks rather than their holdings of nzo. Just my opinion of course.

Happy New Year to all

[Crypto Crude]

boy, some of these oilers are absolutely amazing, even at $40US per barrel...
Prime time picking...
oil has discounted these stocks to amazing lows that wont be held...
oil futures through the roof...
NZO is as good as it gets...
get positioned for oil in 2010 (now), and a full 2009 program for the likes of NZO...
top 5 pick here...

.^sc