NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[the machine]

just some facts to dispute shastas post .AT and NT have taken minimal directors fees. Same cant be said of TR but he is driving the train. AT bought nzo share stake at around 25c,so should be expecting a reasonable premium. I sold out of nzo at the last option time because I never liked Pike and increased my ppp with a view to a long term hold, 10years, when I expected them to be safely worth $1 plus. I will be qiute happy to sell to nzo at a substantial price but eqally happy if they walk away and leaves us ppp ers to steadily accumulate wealth.By the way I am glad when the original Tui exploration well was drilled that Coaster never completed Plugged and Abandoned when full depth was reached and there was no announcement. Have the feeling it might have jinxed the whole project. Got the feeling there is a lot more oil to come in this area.

think AT bought out nzo's share when price about au35c, which is about where market has finally recovered to.

M

[the machine]

Your scrib offer is a bit rich Machine.Anything like 4 nzo for 5 ppp will make a holder of nzo green with envy. In hindsight it would certainly underline the route to holding NZO shares is by first holding them in PPP. I had thought a 1 nzo share for 2 ppp would probably be about fair,or on current value giving PPP holders 65 cents a share. Your scrib offer values them at 104 which is toooo much.

maybe.

a script offer to preserve cash has to be a lot more than straight cash.

a script offer is a cheap way in to have an nzo share.

see what happens in next few weeks or sooner.

M

[the machine]

the new permit sounds good and will be handy to see a map of it.
gamma was one of the structures identified when nzo had a share of the lapsed permit to the west of kupe, but this new permit is also south of kupe.

since then nzo will have aquired a heap of info through drilling kupe.

be very handy if they can add on the 2d to pacific titan's present task - save a heap of time.

as nzo have 100% of permit one wonders what origin energy think of that.

m

[boysy]

i find it unlikely that nzo would use much cash if an offer comes foward hence the script part of such an offer would have to be advantageous to ppp holders. machines 5ppp:4nzo might be a bit high in saying that time will tell expect a whole lot of info out this week nzo quarterly out friday and id expect ppp and awes to also be out around then.

[temptation]

NZO have 384,067,359 shares issued
PPP have 588,612,110 shares issued
A take out at 4 NZO for every 5 PPP would imply a valuation of PPP greater than the valuation of NZO!

[sideline]

NZO have 384,067,359 shares issued
PPP have 588,612,110 shares issued
A take out at 4 NZO for every 5 PPP would imply a valuation of PPP greater than the valuation of NZO!

Yeah, I think those speculations are wildly irrational exuberance. I personally am
not convinced that any takeover is coming - maybe a decent blocking stake is all
that is desired.

[shasta]

any t/o offer by nzo for ppp has to be a firstup knockout offer

Say au 75c cash or 4 nzo share for every 5 ppp share should do it - the later of course preserving the pile of cash which is all to critical in these opportunistic times.

as a holder of both, we lean towards this type of offer even though it dilutes nzo

M

Whilst PPP holders can expect a "reasonable" premium, NZO will not do it's own shareholders any justice by lining PPP holders pockets, at there own expense, especially as NZO can pick & choose there targets.

I say give PPP holders back there cash backing equivalent* & some script to sweeten the deal (say 1:5) & thats the best they should expect.

That way, they get the same as if PPP were wound up & a capital return made,plus a stake in NZO to get a slice of the action with 22.5% of Tui.

As at todays close NZO was $1.29 & PPP $0.43 (on the NZX), or a ratio of 1 NZO = 3 PPP.

If we say that PPP's cash backing = $0.30*+(1.29 x 1/5*) = ~$0.55

Thats still a 28% premium on PPP's closing SP price of 43c.

If PPP hold out for say 60c, NZO may well go all script & at today's price that equates to every PPP being worth 0.465 a NZO share.

[fish]

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If PPP hold out for say 60c, NZO may well go all script & at today's price that equates to every PPP being worth 0.465 a NZO share.[/QUOTE]
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The share price does not reflect fair and reasonable value for a share-you need independent valuatiions of both simultaneously and using the same methodology.

[boysy]

do holders of nzo honestly believe that nzo would give ppp back its cash backing per share. In these times i think nzo would rather have cash and would be more inclined to offer a slightly more valuable scipt offeras opposed to mainly cash and script as they could use the cash more effectively in this environment. if a offer is forthcoming i expect it to be heavily scipt waited. just my opinion though.

[sideline]

.

If PPP hold out for say 60c, NZO may well go all script & at today's price that equates to every PPP being worth 0.465 a NZO share..

The share price does not reflect fair and reasonable value for a share-you need independent valuatiions of both simultaneously and using the same methodology.

Exactly! Before NZO started to acquire PPP shares the price was around 24c. The only reason it trades
now higher is NZO's interest. Valued on a same for same basis, I calculate about 5 ppp for 1 nzo.
Maybe a bit of premium on that for PPP's value being mostly cash while NZO's is is more made up of
future production in Kupe and PRC interest, so more risky.

Some of the numbers in previous posts are just pipedreams.....