NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[boysy]

dont get me wrong but tui is nzo major asset at present. Pike is medium term and pike longer term. Due to discounting the major value at present comes a from the cash then tui then pike and finally Kupe. Hence it should be valued accordingly. 1nzo-5ppp isnt right every one could see how undervalued ppp was its just some people chose to look the other way i mean ppp cash backing per share was greater than the market cap in essence TUI was valued at nothing which was crazy then. TUI is the money maker for both companies yet it was valued into nzo share price though not into ppp. i would say 1nzo-3ppp the current shareprice of nzo isnt reflective of its value but this shouldnt detract from the fact that nzo will have to pay a price for ppp that values it at its true worth i did some calculations today and came up with a conservative figue for ppp a A$220 million or A$0.37 a share time will show what nzo will do i am somewhat biased in the fact i only hold ppp.

[shasta]

.

If PPP hold out for say 60c, NZO may well go all script & at today's price that equates to every PPP being worth 0.465 a NZO share.

.

The share price does not reflect fair and reasonable value for a share-you need independent valuatiions of both simultaneously and using the same methodology.[/quote]

How many oilers on the ASX are currently at "fair value"?

I'd say most companies are well below full valuation (incl NZO)

What makes PPP so special to demand such an outrageous premium?

NZO arent going to pay more than $1 for each $1 PPP has in cash, & as has been mentioned, only NZO's interest has sparked the PPP SP to where it is now.

Boo hoo my figures all you like, they are food for thought & with no solid valuation methodology behind them. (I'm sure PPP holders have factored in lower oil prices into there NPV calc's )

If PPP is worth so much more, you should be directing that very question to PPP's management & asking for a share buyback.

Let's see what they "value" there own shares at & are prepared to pay.

Might be a better option than PPP trying to hold a gun to NZO's head.

I'm sure even NZO would like to double there money on there PPP shares, if indeed PPP's mgmt value there shares above $NZ0.60c

[the machine]

kan tan iv is coming to aust/nz

PetroleumNews.net + Kan Tan IV rig on way to Australia, New Zealand 28 Jan 2009 ... AUSTRALIAN Drilling Associates has confirmed it is bringing the Kan Tan IV semi- submersible rig to Australia and New Zealand for a ...
http://www.petroleumnews.net/storyvi...storyid=560996 - 8 hours ago - Similar pages


M

[Thumpa]

PPP holders are in it for the pure oil play and low risk cash flow with Tui continuing for some time. This is of course what NZO wants as well.

A NZO script offer may not be that enticing. If you want exposure to dirty old coal in a deteriating global market for that stuff then they would have just gone and brought PRC or NZO.
Any script offer to PPP holders could result of a dumping in NZO as soon as it comes through and there's the dilution as well.

A juicy cash premium offer is the only way.

Would get interesting if a third party comes in with a blocking stake (ACC / Kiwisaver fund etc)

[the machine]

dont get me wrong but tui is nzo major asset at present. Pike is medium term and pike longer term. Due to discounting the major value at present comes a from the cash then tui then pike and finally Kupe. Hence it should be valued accordingly. 1nzo-5ppp isnt right every one could see how undervalued ppp was its just some people chose to look the other way i mean ppp cash backing per share was greater than the market cap in essence TUI was valued at nothing which was crazy then. TUI is the money maker for both companies yet it was valued into nzo share price though not into ppp. i would say 1nzo-3ppp the current shareprice of nzo isnt reflective of its value but this shouldnt detract from the fact that nzo will have to pay a price for ppp that values it at its true worth i did some calculations today and came up with a conservative figue for ppp a A$220 million or A$0.37 a share time will show what nzo will do i am somewhat biased in the fact i only hold ppp.

ppp's cash and assets would surely exceed a$220 at present.

add on tui drilling in 2009 [yes kan tan iv is signed up for awe/others] and expected rising POO, equates to a very high knockout t/o in nzo what to succeed first time up.

bring it on.

M

[the machine]

.

The share price does not reflect fair and reasonable value for a share-you need independent valuatiions of both simultaneously and using the same methodology.

How many oilers on the ASX are currently at "fair value"?

I'd say most companies are well below full valuation (incl NZO)

What makes PPP so special to demand such an outrageous premium?

NZO arent going to pay more than $1 for each $1 PPP has in cash, & as has been mentioned, only NZO's interest has sparked the PPP SP to where it is now.

Boo hoo my figures all you like, they are food for thought & with no solid valuation methodology behind them. (I'm sure PPP holders have factored in lower oil prices into there NPV calc's )

If PPP is worth so much more, you should be directing that very question to PPP's management & asking for a share buyback.

Let's see what they "value" there own shares at & are prepared to pay.

Might be a better option than PPP trying to hold a gun to NZO's head.

I'm sure even NZO would like to double there money on there PPP shares, if indeed PPP's mgmt value there shares above $NZ0.60c [/QUOTE]


a few years ago tap oil tried to take our arc energy in a friendly merger - think arc started at about 25c au and tap sold out their 5% stake at about 50c au after arc told them no.

Arc subsequently went over $2 and since merged with AWE - at a price well north of what TAP oil sold out at.

bet you TAP oil would have preferred to not give up in hindsight.

sure a different setting and a few years back.

the point is if nzo want ppp then they have to make it a knockout bid that exceeds the valuation ppp's independant party comes up with.

since cash is king then nzo will want to prerserve the cash, hednce by including script that will come at an additional premium - 10 - 20% over a cash bid - whatever.

anyway, its all falling into place with the kan tan iv now coming, brings greater tui into play as part of any bid.

nzo should be worth a lot more than present sp, so any dilution will not impact much.

M

[the machine]

Exactly! Before NZO started to acquire PPP shares the price was around 24c. The only reason it trades
now higher is NZO's interest. Valued on a same for same basis, I calculate about 5 ppp for 1 nzo.
Maybe a bit of premium on that for PPP's value being mostly cash while NZO's is is more made up of
future production in Kupe and PRC interest, so more risky.

Some of the numbers in previous posts are just pipedreams.....

trust you bought a lot of ppp at below 24c, since cash position exceeded sp

M

[temptation]

There is a lot of synergy between the 2 companys, and a takeover/merger should be in everyones interests.
From an NZO perspective this a chance to increase their exposure to Tui whilst the market is undervaluing these assets.
From a PPP perspective this is a chance to get into a bigger and more liquid share with a better diversified portfolio.
At 2 NZO shares per 5 PPP shares scrip, the PPP holders would be getting au40c if the share prices stayed constant. As an NZO holder I would be happy, but as a PPP holder I would be disappointed to be left waiting for a long term benefit.

As a PPP holder I would like to be given my au26c out of the PPP kitty plus 1 NZO share for every 5 PPP held. At current NZO sp, that puts a value on PPP's 10% Tui at about AU$118,000,000 which may be a bit low, but it's a lot better than the market currently implies, and with NZO sp at AU$1.00 gives a value to PPP shares of au46c which is a decent premium on PPP's best share price to date.

Everyone should be happy!

[the machine]

be mindful that nzo have scoured many and oil/gas "target" and settled on ppp as first move - 15% so far.

sure that 15% was below asset cost and a very good buy by nzo.

to take holding beyond 15% will require a very substantial offer, well above valuation of ppp and in the mix is greater tui drilling laterthis year as awehavesecured kan tan iv - this alone should do wonders for nzo/ppp sp

M

[manxman]

kan tan iv is coming to aust/nz

PetroleumNews.net + Kan Tan IV rig on way to Australia, New Zealand 28 Jan 2009 ... AUSTRALIAN Drilling Associates has confirmed it is bringing the Kan Tan IV semi- submersible rig to Australia and New Zealand for a ...
http://www.petroleumnews.net/storyvi...storyid=560996 - 8 hours ago - Similar pages


M

Somehow http://www.energycurrent.com/index.p...&storyid=14838 slipped under the radar.

The Kan Tan IV consortium drilling program already has a total duration of 534 days to drill 12 wells in Australia and New Zealand, commencing in Australia's Bass Strait late Q3, 2008.

This would put any TUI area drillng towards the end of the year or even 2010.
NZO could either firm up a bid for PPP or exit during the excitement that spudding a new well seems to bring. Just parking the spare cash in PPP seems to be paying off a lot better than keeping it under the mattress.

Interesting times