NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[notie]

Surprising comments, does the analyst not put any weight on the value of earnings from coal (PRC) and gas(Kupe)?

How many years do you have to serve your apprenticeship for to lose the label of newcomer? I think NZOG started exploring in the early 80's

The value of the gas from Kupe has been factored in on the value of the NZOG shares by most research units for a while now. Coal prices have dived following the drop off in iron and steel smelting in China.

NZOG have been around for a while so newcomer isn't quite right.

[KentBrockman]

given that some people are floating the idea that NZOG is going to make an offer for PPP which would blow ~100 million of their precious war chest then I guess he might think this talk is unhelpful:o

you mean NZO would pay 17c/s for PPP plus some NZO scrip?

Pull the other one. NZO was unlikely to ever gain control of PPP with their cheapish approach half a year ago, and it is even less likely now (unless the Vietnam thingy falters and no further oil is found around TUI (and if that was so, why would they want PPP anyway)).

I think we can well and truly say that NZO's attempt at PPP has failed. The best outcome for NZO's foray into PPP will now be to hope for a positive outcome of the Vietnam drilling and then sell their stake while having (probably more than-) doubled their money.

[fish]

Surprising comments, does the analyst not put any weight on the value of earnings from coal (PRC) and gas(Kupe)?

How many years do you have to serve your apprenticeship for to lose the label of newcomer? I think NZOG started exploring in the early 80's

A friend of mine has suggested Aspect Huntley might be trying to manipulate the market for the benefit of their own clients .
He notes that they put out a valuation in march at the same price -1.65 and recommended accumulate . Despite the gain in value of ppp and prc and increase in oil prices plus improved market sentiment and general increase in resource stock valuations they now give a less optimistic outlook-to their own clients a couple of weeks before releasing to the press .

In my opinion the abn ambro craigs valuation a few weeks ago could (given the rapid increase in price oil) be upgraded beyond the $1.95 they suggest .
If we get the 12c dividend ? plus ?tax credits they forcast in august/sept this could propel the sp above $2

[notie]

you mean NZO would pay 17c/s for PPP plus some NZO scrip?

Pull the other one. NZO was unlikely to ever gain control of PPP with their cheapish approach half a year ago, and it is even less likely now (unless the Vietnam thingy falters and no further oil is found around TUI (and if that was so, why would they want PPP anyway)).

I think we can well and truly say that NZO's attempt at PPP has failed. The best outcome for NZO's foray into PPP will now be to hope for a positive outcome of the Vietnam drilling and then sell their stake while having (probably more than-) doubled their money.

I'm in agreement with you there Kent. Far too late for nzo to mount a takeover now. the 100 million figure was based on nzo buying another 35% at current market rate so they cross the 50% threshold (I assumed they held 15% already).

It is a very unlikely outcome now given that PPP share price has risen and any interest shown by nzo in buying more shares would precipitate a run on the PPP shares. NZO should have moved when they had the chance back at christmas

[notie]

that would be the same abn ambro craig that valued a dog called austral pacific at $6.40 in 2006. http://http://www.austral-pacific.co...apx2707.06.pdf

last time I looked these guys were in receivership and weren't trading anymore.

[boysy]

looks as though nzo has missed the bus. In there defence they had no idea this vietnam exploration could play out in the way it has. If there is a commercial find and flow rates are good and ppp get farm in approval i would expect ppp market cap to approach if not overtake nzo current market cap. The train is leaving the station and i dont think nzo is running after this one.

[digger]

looks as though nzo has missed the bus. In there defence they had no idea this vietnam exploration could play out in the way it has. If there is a commercial find and flow rates are good and ppp get farm in approval i would expect ppp market cap to approach if not overtake nzo current market cap. The train is leaving the station and i dont think nzo is running after this one.

We are of coa-rse dealing in hindsight here. We all somewhat missed the train not only NZO. So hands up who bought in at say 26 before the NZO move. Not me. Who rebought in at 35 where it was for a long time B4 the PPPV venture. I bought another 120,000 then but with hindsight should have emptied the bank. NZO shows a good profit so far and yes it could have been better as yours could have been too.
Really we have to accept that PPP is different especially if PPPV is successful.The drill could end up a company maker.

[Casa del Energia]

looks as though nzo has missed the bus. In there defence they had no idea this vietnam exploration could play out in the way it has. If there is a commercial find and flow rates are good and ppp get farm in approval i would expect ppp market cap to approach if not overtake nzo current market cap. The train is leaving the station and i dont think nzo is running after this one.

I would be concerned if NZO did go running after this train - it would imply that they are market speculators not production developers and explorers. Too many fail by not sticking to thier knitting.

[fish]

[QUOTE=notie;261584]that would be the same abn ambro craig that valued a dog called austral pacific at $6.40 in 2006. http://http://www.austral-pacific.co...apx2707.06.pdf


I doubt it -would imagine their team has changed and certainly i find they make a lot of sense .
In contrast anyone who cant see the reasons for an increase in valuation for nzo between march and june could have their head burried in the sand or could be trying to mislead the market

[neopoleII]

the simple fact is NZO is cheap at this price, but mr market is comprised of traders and speculators at the moment, and the long term investors are already in and moms and pops are clutching the last of their dollars.
Until kupe comes on line, or a divi anouncment is made or a drill is in progress, the sp will languish/drift along with the price of poo.

PPP has the same investor problem........ there arent many, just speculators and traders.
if/when veitnam becomes hard fact, a direction will become visable, then things will really happen.

moms and pops are looking for "green shoots" too, but with little info and not much more knowledge of future direction from both NZO and PPP, only the experienced investor is going to enter.
sooner or later, both companies will become transparent to the ordinary investor, when that happens, sp should rise, by that time the traders have cleaned up and moved on.

I myself know the potential of both co's and have held for many years, but am still reluctant to take a bigger bite, for the simple reason of extending too much.
so moms and pops are even more risk averse...........

ALL of my friends think im crazy being in the sharemarket at this particular time, ...... that just shows me the risk aversion out there, which is demonstrated in the low sp of shinning companies like NZO.