NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[upside_umop]

Waaihoek valued PRC at $120m and Hector/Taranui at $40m = $160m at a low base valuation. Hector/Taranui now = 0m and NZO's PRC stake is valued in the market at $55m.

So it's $105m less or 52.5 cents less per share on his valuation.

Using the high case scenario, PRC was valued at $201m and H/T at $66m = $267m.

So that's $212m less or $1.06 less per share.

Brrrrrr... she's a cold morning, isn't she? Good reality check?

sorry to burst your bubble balance but:

the 40 mill valuation was for kupe satelite fields, mangatoa gas, and five oil prospects.
mangatoa gas was canned a while back and the 5 oil prospects have just come to an end now..

oil price has jumped from his low valuation (used for 1.26 a share) from 35 a barrel to 75 a barrel. hmmm not a bad increase in margin considering opex doesnt increase..

then there was the rerating..

we still have kupe to go, with upside to it.

but yeah, your right about prc, so its worth 55/262.5= 21cents a share.

look into it a bit further mate...

[Sharp737]

$US80 per bbl Tapis = approx $NZ115 (at today's prices)

Lets see.... 47k bbl/day @ $NZ115 = $NZ5.4m per day (gross)
NOG's share @ 12.5% = $NZ675,625 per day = $20.268M per 30day month = $NZ60.8M over 3 months (gross).

Now if 47,000 bbl/day was kept up for even 6 months, that would be gross $NZ121.6M!!!

Ok, there are the running costs etc but my goodness!!

Pan Pacific's share is 10% and they would gross after 6 months $NZ97.2M at today's prices!

This has to be good

[dsurf]

I love tapis at $80 but wonder if that can be kept up for more than a month with the hurricane season ending end of Oct? - Still at current prices would give 4 months at $72ish. Just in time for the AGM announcements & then PE calculations by the anal lisps

[duncan macgregor]

I am inclined to think that fundamentalists are blind to reality. Lets take the numbers and work it all out your way. According to what i read 261,905,658. shares with future profits less administration and exploration costs are what is in the mix.
1, Prc life expectency say thirty years dividends and thats all the money NZO can expect from that [ LETS SAY 8%. Thats not much better than the bank with over thirty years.
2, Oil being sold how long will it last whats the end bottom line?.
3, Where to next will they buy shares back to get the option price further diluting the sp to increase the money at hand?.
$ Are they going to buy into new areas or take over minor companies in those areas.
4,Will they continue on bleeding the gullable to feather their own nest or will they turn into a company that will go and find new fields.
I think at the moment its not worth holding its pass the parcel time coming up. Macdunk

[sideline]

I love tapis at $80 but wonder if that can be kept up for more than a month with the hurricane season ending end of Oct? - Still at current prices would give 4 months at $72ish. Just in time for the AGM announcements & then PE calculations by the anal lisps

there is always Iran & Bush and then the heating season starts in the northern hemisphere and....and ...and..... and the available oil gets less with every barrel pumped.

[Crypto Crude]

I sent BR an email and he said the AGM date and place of the event had not been set... I did ask him a month ago....
Brian, maybe you have an update for us?

.^sc

[boysy]

and opec lets not forget those guys

[Unicorn]

I sent BR an email and he said the AGM date and place of the event had not been set... I did ask him a month ago....
Brian, maybe you have an update for us?

.^sc

The date is Friday 26 October.

Time and venue to be announced (recently they have been at the Crowne Plaza in Auckland, but that is not to say they will always be there).

[arjay]

Bermuda - I'd be keen to sit in on any post-AGM chat-fest with management. I wasn't there last year, but went with Digger to the previous years gathering which was very good. Not a venue for traders though, or people with graphs and stop-gaps. More for the serious investment with a long-term interest in a consolidating company. Who knows wher eth eAGM will be. I recall my first NZO AGM - it was held at a conference centre next to the bridge acrosss the outlet to Orakei basin. That was a while ago.......

[Balance]

Waaihoek valued PRC at $120m and Hector/Taranui at $40m = $160m at a low base valuation. Hector/Taranui now = 0m and NZO's PRC stake is valued in the market at $55m.

So it's $105m less or 52.5 cents less per share on his valuation.

Using the high case scenario, PRC was valued at $201m and H/T at $66m = $267m.

So that's $212m less or $1.06 less per share.

Brrrrrr... she's a cold morning, isn't she? Good reality check?

Got a few of you jumping up and down. Trying to warm up with the cold reality?

How come there was so much use of Waaihoek's valuation when it was all blue skies and unlimited potential but mysteriously, no mention when realities of PRC, Hector etc eventuate?

Not talking chickenfeed here - the valuations are out by a mile!

Let's read about Tui and Kupe being upgraded but where's the beef? Have they increased enough to offset the huge drop in PRC and oil prospects? What about the dilution effect of 80m more shares issued?

Come on, guys - come back with something substantial. Let's get some balance and let's get going. Let's really get into NZO and let's buy, buy or sell, sell.