NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[sideline]

A friend of mine has suggested Aspect Huntley might be trying to manipulate the market for the benefit of their own clients .
He notes that they put out a valuation in march at the same price -1.65 and recommended accumulate . Despite the gain in value of ppp and prc and increase in oil prices plus improved market sentiment and general increase in resource stock valuations they now give a less optimistic outlook-to their own clients a couple of weeks before releasing to the press .

In my opinion the abn ambro craigs valuation a few weeks ago could (given the rapid increase in price oil) be upgraded beyond the $1.95 they suggest .
If we get the 12c dividend ? plus ?tax credits they forcast in august/sept this could propel the sp above $2

Aspect Huntley are the outfit which usually has buys on the banks and other financial institutions
(at least until the crash) - they just don't understand or aprecciate other industries.

[sideline]

We are of coa-rse dealing in hindsight here. We all somewhat missed the train not only NZO. So hands up who bought in at say 26 before the NZO move. Not me. Who rebought in at 35 where it was for a long time B4 the PPPV venture. I bought another 120,000 then but with hindsight should have emptied the bank. NZO shows a good profit so far and yes it could have been better as yours could have been too.
Really we have to accept that PPP is different especially if PPPV is successful.The drill could end up a company maker.

I never believed that NZO wanted to take over PPP. There was a time when PPP was seriously
undervalued during the course of the crash - I think the share price might at times have been below
cash backing. So NZO supported the share price to prevent a predatory takeover and sit now on a tidy
paper profit for that. Remember the companies are somewhat connected personnel-wise.

[upside_umop]

Blah blah blah!

I dont mean to be rude or anything, but would some of you mind showing what methodology you would use to get your 'valuations' that these brokers cant seem to do?!

Brokers have a standardized method that they will use, and will also state their assumptions - aspect huntley say a sum of parts and discounted cashflows. So before you go on about saying that the value they give is wrong, how about look into what their assumptions actually were. Ie, potential production, oil prices etc. They usually dont make up 'pie' in the sky estimates that get flunked around internet threads!

I'm afraid using a gut feeling about a potential future rise in oil price doesnt quite cut it!

[shasta]

Blah blah blah!

I dont mean to be rude or anything, but would some of you mind showing what methodology you would use to get your 'valuations' that these brokers cant seem to do?!

Brokers have a standardized method that they will use, and will also state their assumptions - aspect huntley say a sum of parts and discounted cashflows. So before you go on about saying that the value they give is wrong, how about look into what their assumptions actually were. Ie, potential production, oil prices etc. They usually dont make up 'pie' in the sky estimates that get flunked around internet threads!

I'm afraid using a gut feeling about a potential future rise in oil price doesnt quite cut it!

You're quite right UU

Although some of the bigger broking firms can be quite lazy & value prize assets as merely nominal values.

I've seen this done so many times, i usually dont bother with them anymore!

I guess an asset has to be producing cashflows to get a reliable DCF.

Some-of-the-parts is still a bit lax in my book...

Some of the FA analysis i post on ST, i can knock up literally in a few minutes, once i've researched the company...

It's amazing what you can learn in 2 or 3 hours research on any chosen company!

[fish]

Blah blah blah!

I dont mean to be rude or anything, but would some of you mind showing what methodology you would use to get your 'valuations' that these brokers cant seem to do?!

Brokers have a standardized method that they will use, and will also state their assumptions - aspect huntley say a sum of parts and discounted cashflows. So before you go on about saying that the value they give is wrong, how about look into what their assumptions actually were. Ie, potential production, oil prices etc. They usually dont make up 'pie' in the sky estimates that get flunked around internet threads!

I'm afraid using a gut feeling about a potential future rise in oil price doesnt quite cut it!

We are talking about an actual substantial rise in oil price and the sp of ppp and prc plus a further 3 months of revenue between March and june .
How can the valuation be the same .This certainly doesnt add up in my opinion .
I dont subscribe to a-h so cant analyse their valuation .

I really would appreciate seeing a valuation from experienced masters of valuation -like waihoek or unicorn .

[Grimy]

Blah blah blah!

I dont mean to be rude or anything, but would some of you mind showing what methodology you would use to get your 'valuations' that these brokers cant seem to do?!

Brokers have a standardized method that they will use, and will also state their assumptions - aspect huntley say a sum of parts and discounted cashflows. So before you go on about saying that the value they give is wrong, how about look into what their assumptions actually were. Ie, potential production, oil prices etc. They usually dont make up 'pie' in the sky estimates that get flunked around internet threads!

I'm afraid using a gut feeling about a potential future rise in oil price doesnt quite cut it!

I also agree with what you say. Was working up to say something, but having had a couple of wines (hey, it's Friday night!) I'm glad someone else said it (and better than I could).

[boysy]

Are people forgeting NZO is in the middle of 2 projects which are yet to be producing of course pike and kupe still have a level of risk attached to them and therefore discounted as such. NZO has cash but its sole producing asset is declining and kupe has been delayed and pike has been continually delayed and beset by problems.While these problems are working themselves out you can hardly blame the brokers valuations they have every reason to be prudent in there valuations in these turbulant times.

[fish]

[QUOTE=boysy;261624]Are people forgeting NZO is in the middle of 2 projects which are yet to be producing of course pike and kupe still have a level of risk attached to them and therefore discounted as such. NZO has cash but its sole producing asset is declining and kupe has been delayed and pike has been continually delayed and beset by problems.While these problems are working themselves out you can hardly blame the brokers valuations they have every reason to be prudent in there valuations in these turbulant times.[/QUOTE

I would have thought the risk was lower now than 3 months ago or even a year ago-so why a hold rather than buy and why a lower valuation-
a year ago -Stock takes RSS Email Print
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Stock takes: Happy effect
Page 1 of 3 View as a single page 5:00AM Friday Jul 18, 2008
By Adam Bennett
GUSHING OVER OIL

Analysts continue to praise New Zealand Oil and Gas, and with oil and coal prices where they are at present, why wouldn't you?

Aspect Huntley have raised their full year 2009 net profit forecast for the company from $58 million to $102 million based on management's increased estimates of oil reserves from the Tui field. They also raised their full year 2008 npat forecast by 7.3 per cent to $132 million.

Aspect Huntley has also raised its fair value estimate for the company by 10c to $1.83 a share.

Last night, NZ Oil and Gas closed 5c lower at $1.66.

Like other analysts that cover the stock, Aspect Huntley are wondering what the company will do with the $130 million it raised in its recent rights issue. The options they see include "an active exploration programme" or acquisitions.

NZ Oil and Gas has also benefited from the surging fortunes of Pike River Coal, in which it holds a 31 per cent stake.

]

[shasta]

We are talking about an actual substantial rise in oil price and the sp of ppp and prc plus a further 3 months of revenue between March and june .
How can the valuation be the same .This certainly doesnt add up in my opinion .
I dont subscribe to a-h so cant analyse their valuation .

I really would appreciate seeing a valuation from experienced masters of valuation -like waihoek or unicorn .

Fish

Aspect Huntley provide the research & broker valuations on the ASB Sec website.

There HOLD recommendation (@ $1.65) was updated 16/06/09.

With the forecast drop in revenue for 2009/10, they have NZO on a P/E of between 11 - 12, about average i guess...

They have forecast eps @ 14.4c for 2010, so on 385m shares they are forecasting NPAT at roughly $NZ55m.

[777]

We are talking about an actual substantial rise in oil price and the sp of ppp and prc plus a further 3 months of revenue between March and june .
How can the valuation be the same .This certainly doesnt add up in my opinion .
I dont subscribe to a-h so cant analyse their valuation .

I really would appreciate seeing a valuation from experienced masters of valuation -like waihoek or unicorn .

There is a name from the past. Waaihoek hasn't been on this forum for nearly two years. It is a shame to lose the likes of him. There are a few others who have gone awol as well.