NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[shasta]

sorry to be over negative, but the reality is coal prices are still very much lower that when that pr project kicked off.

It will no doubt make an OK profit, but nothing that spectacular which is what an oil exploration company stock can do if they go out and find some decent things to drill then lay off interest to other parties on a free carried basis. Something NZOG isn't doing unfortunately....

Things may change at nzog, but given the board's micro-management of the activities of the company and their well known adversity to risk exposure then I can't see them spending their 200M any time soon. Risk is what exploration is all about and they have a nice little earner going with Tui and Kupe soon, so they have no excuse not to go out and chase some elephants.
I would put a 5% chance on them taking this kind of action

You can rant all you like about coal prices, but you need to remember that the coal prices for the year have already been set!

The current years locked in price is still above the forecast in the prospectus.

Plus Pike's hard coking coal attracts a premium & caters for a slightly different market, than normal thermal coal

[biker]

Daily ShareChat: New Zealand Oil & Gas
By Jenny Ruth

Friday 3rd July 2009
Text too small?

About 40% of New Zealand Oil & Gas's investments are currently "problematic," says Andrew Harvey-Green at Forsyth Barr.

"Holding cash is not an efficient use of shareholder funds, Pike River Coal is a non-core holding and, if NZO is unable to take over Pan Pacific Petroleum, that investment also becomes non-core," he says. The company owns 31% of Pike River and 15% of Pan Pacific.

"The cash balance that looked strategically strong six months ago is no longer so attractive," Harvey-Green says.

"It appears that NZO has missed the bottom of the market as commodity prices have rallied and assets that were previously under stress are no longer under as much stress," he says.

"We fear that NZO may have missed an opportunity of a lifetime and expect investors to increasingly question how much longer NZO should sit on its cash.

He says the company's share price has benefited from a rally in commodity prices in recent months but it is no longer as sensitive to the oil price as it once was with Tui, in which it has a 12.5% interest, having converted 46% of its oil reserves into cash.

"This is one reason why its investment strategy is so important," Harvey-Green says.



BROKER CALL: Forsyth Barr RATE New Zealand Oil & Gas (NZX: NZO ) as accumulate (downgraded from buy).

[digger]

Daily ShareChat: New Zealand Oil & Gas
By Jenny Ruth

Friday 3rd July 2009
Text too small?

About 40% of New Zealand Oil & Gas's investments are currently "problematic," says Andrew Harvey-Green at Forsyth Barr.

"Holding cash is not an efficient use of shareholder funds, Pike River Coal is a non-core holding and, if NZO is unable to take over Pan Pacific Petroleum, that investment also becomes non-core," he says. The company owns 31% of Pike River and 15% of Pan Pacific.

"The cash balance that looked strategically strong six months ago is no longer so attractive," Harvey-Green says.

"It appears that NZO has missed the bottom of the market as commodity prices have rallied and assets that were previously under stress are no longer under as much stress," he says.

"We fear that NZO may have missed an opportunity of a lifetime and expect investors to increasingly question how much longer NZO should sit on its cash.

He says the company's share price has benefited from a rally in commodity prices in recent months but it is no longer as sensitive to the oil price as it once was with Tui, in which it has a 12.5% interest, having converted 46% of its oil reserves into cash.

"This is one reason why its investment strategy is so important," Harvey-Green says.



BROKER CALL: Forsyth Barr RATE New Zealand Oil & Gas (NZX: NZO ) as accumulate (downgraded from buy).

Have finally got my hands on The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and about half finished. He deals a lot with the history of predictions and concludes that our history shows we are unable to meaninly find the future from our best modles. Basically says predicting is so poor it is a waist of time.Our history is littered with predictions that are so wrong that we ignore them rather than face our poor record. Then we turn around and make another prediction.
I too thought about a month ago the world economy was about to turn around and if so NZO missed the bottom. Today it looks like the bottom is some way off with the green shoots looking brownish. So maybe NZO has not missed the boat.Maybe the opportunities are yet to come. The point is that Forsyth Barr were a company that i dealt with for many years and their predictions are no better than what is coming out of NZO.
Where is the bottom and how long is a piece of string are two questions that will always be with the human race and will only be known in hindsite.

[biker]

I've always thought Forsyth Barr were in NZO's pocket and if so, you could see this as a willingness by the company to make itself appear less attractive, at this point in time, for whatever reason.

[notie]

Daily ShareChat: New Zealand Oil & Gas
By Jenny Ruth

Friday 3rd July 2009
Text too small?

About 40% of New Zealand Oil & Gas's investments are currently "problematic," says Andrew Harvey-Green at Forsyth Barr.

"Holding cash is not an efficient use of shareholder funds, Pike River Coal is a non-core holding and, if NZO is unable to take over Pan Pacific Petroleum, that investment also becomes non-core," he says. The company owns 31% of Pike River and 15% of Pan Pacific.

"The cash balance that looked strategically strong six months ago is no longer so attractive," Harvey-Green says.

"It appears that NZO has missed the bottom of the market as commodity prices have rallied and assets that were previously under stress are no longer under as much stress," he says.

"We fear that NZO may have missed an opportunity of a lifetime and expect investors to increasingly question how much longer NZO should sit on its cash.

He says the company's share price has benefited from a rally in commodity prices in recent months but it is no longer as sensitive to the oil price as it once was with Tui, in which it has a 12.5% interest, having converted 46% of its oil reserves into cash.

"This is one reason why its investment strategy is so important," Harvey-Green says.



BROKER CALL: Forsyth Barr RATE New Zealand Oil & Gas (NZX: NZO ) as accumulate (downgraded from buy).

So NZO has sat around on its hands with its treasure chest and missed the boat. Surprise surprise.

It isn't just the oilers saying this about nzo now.

Next thing to happen? NZO is likely to throw all its money into a lame duck company or farm in. I

[Chris Roberts]

Does anyone notice all the ESOP announcements. Over the last 6 weeks there have been 5.
14 May, 150000
21 May, 161000
3 June, 100000
15 June, 50000
30 June, 400000

So over 860,000 shares allocated to staff in 6 weeks, and I think there are less than 20 staff. Do the staff not get paid or something.

The ESOP announcements listed above are NOT new allocations. They are notifications that FORMER employees have exercised (ie paid up the full amount) shares that they had partly paid for some years ago.

NZOG will continue to offer partly paid shares to new employees. Here's an example of how it works:
An employee is offered 100,000 shares at the current price plus 20% - say $1.90. The EMPLOYEE pays 1 cent per share now and then cannot touch the shares for 2 years. Once 2 years is up, they can turn the partly paid shares into full shares by paying the remaining $1.89 a share.
The scheme - which is similiar to others used by companies around the world - provides an incentive for an employee to play their part in working to increase shareholder value.

[777]

True Chris but it is also abused by a lot of companies. It is why shareholders distrust so many public companies. We fund the company but some short term employee gets a bundle of options for a cent. I work for a salary so why can't they. You included.

[Mr Tommy]

The ESOP announcements listed above are NOT new allocations. They are notifications that FORMER employees have exercised (ie paid up the full amount) shares that they had partly paid for some years ago.

NZOG will continue to offer partly paid shares to new employees. Here's an example of how it works:
An employee is offered 100,000 shares at the current price plus 20% - say $1.90. The EMPLOYEE pays 1 cent per share now and then cannot touch the shares for 2 years. Once 2 years is up, they can turn the partly paid shares into full shares by paying the remaining $1.89 a share.
The scheme - which is similiar to others used by companies - provides an incentive for an employee to play their part in working to increase shareholder value.

Hi Chris
Ive just looked thru the last couple of annual reports. In 2006 staff were issued 1,535,000 options, in 2007 it was 1,073,500, in 2008 it was 960,000.
How is the number determined, and does this go on forever?

[notie]

Hi Chris
Ive just looked thru the last couple of annual reports. In 2006 staff were issued 1,535,000 options, in 2007 it was 1,073,500, in 2008 it was 960,000.
How is the number determined, and does this go on forever?

it sure does and you will find most of the big packages of options are taken up by the directors.

It is pretty standard practice in most listed companies

[Chris Roberts]

The offer of partly paid shares to directors has an additional requirement - any offer must have the specific approval of shareholders. The partly paid shares currently held by directors were approved by shareholders at past AGMs. Details of those holdings are stated in the Annual Report each year.