NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[shasta]

If people belive in the TUI story why invest in NZO. PPP and AWE have greater leverage to success and both have just as much exploration diversity both are cashed up. I belive like you all of the JV partners are still undervalued but this is unlikely to change and nzo is not the only o&g company that are well below valuations. I guess the uncertainty over oil and gas prices are the main determinant of this.

Because Boysy, what we are trying to say on this thread is that there is more to NZO than just Tui!

Whilst PPP are hoping Vietnam is a commercial success, NZO have the Kupe project just around the corner, & AWE have other projects to bring into production.

Remember AWE is well covered by analysts in Australia due to it's size, whereas NZO is not & kinda flys under the radar, despite being in the NZX50.

PPP has had a great run of late, & perhaps is not undervalued anymore!

As you can see from the NZO valuations on there website the "Sum-of-the-Parts" equals more than the current SP, which i doubt factors in much of Kupe anyway, nor the prospective nearby exploration targets.

I agree there are other O&G companies that are undervalued, i also consider BPT & OEL in that category that's why i hold them + NZO.

The markets like certainty, & Kupe has to be up & running problem free to generate any "re-rating" of NZO.

I'm sure should the NZO SP continue to remain too far below "fair value", especially in the eyes of the Board, then they surely have to consider a share buyback scheme.

Mgmt's performance KPI's will be tiered to SP gains, so they have EVERY incentive to do what's best for all shareholders.

[winner69]

Jeez Shasta ... I haven't ever seen you so passionate about a company as you are now with NZO ... no never ever before

Good stuff .... passion (and self belief) goes a long way

[shasta]

Jeez Shasta ... I haven't ever seen you so passionate about a company as you are now with NZO ... no never ever before

Good stuff .... passion (and self belief) goes a long way

I'm all for alternative points of view, Notie is clearly trying to bait everyone (although could well be from the O&G industry?), & Boysy (among others) favour PPP over NZO, thats all good.

But im always happy to point out the facts, especially when some choose to overlook them to suit there own agenda!

Yup i'm a passionate fella & have plenty of self belief

NZO has been in production just a tad over 2 years, people seem to forget that, you gotta learn to crawl & walk before you run!

[winner69]

Nifty return calulator on their website .... you can calculate your returns from any date to any date ... with and without dividends ... and with dividends reinvested

I did it for the last 12 months and came up with -16%

They also have an interactive chart for the last 12 months where the news items pop up as you drag the cursor along .... nifty

That chart also allows you to compare NZO with the NZX50 .... what surprised me was that NZO has performed pretty much in line with the NZX50 over the last 12 months (the NZX50 is a bit hard to see though)

Different story over 2 years and longer periods though

Bored today

[winner69]

As one who hasn't gone to the NZO website for some time I was surprised to see that in Analyst coverage section no mention of Mcdouall Stuart valuation

Proudly display the 7 analyst valuations they have come across

Seeing how optimistic analysts are and that generally shares trade at least 20% below their valuations I thought the valuations shown ranging from 161 to 193 with an average of 176 didn't seem to tie in with the thoughts of posters on this thread

Believe these analysts and not much upside from the NZO price of 157 yesterday

But where has Mcdoull Stuart gone

[winner69]

Slide 5 of this NZO preso has a chart showing that the shareprice correlation with the price of oil was broken in October 2008
http://www.nzog.com/f50,142686/14268...April_2009.pdf

Don't know the context in what this presented but my immediate thought was if there 'normally' is a correlation than the NZO shareprice should be a lot less than it is today .... converse to the argument on the BPT thread which says BPT is cheap because the shareprice is not rsing as the price of oil rises

Suppose there was a good reason to talk about this correlation being broken

[shasta]

As one who hasn't gone to the NZO website for some time I was surprised to see that in Analyst coverage section no mention of Mcdouall Stuart valuation

Proudly display the 7 analyst valuations they have come across

Seeing how optimistic analysts are and that generally shares trade at least 20% below their valuations I thought the valuations shown ranging from 161 to 193 with an average of 176 didn't seem to tie in with the thoughts of posters on this thread

Believe these analysts and not much upside from the NZO price of 157 yesterday

But where has Mcdoull Stuart gone

NZO has probably outgrown them & don't need them in there back pocket anymore, especially now NZO is in the NZX50, institutions have to buy them & will form there own valuations.

[winner69]

A philosophical point shasta ..... isn't it sad that instos NEED to buy companies on the NZX50 whether they like them or not ..... even if the fund manager valued NZO at 120 he would still buy some .... maybe be active and just be under NZO weighting in the index .... probably wouldn't have any though

Conversely if the same manager that NZO was worth $3 he would be just over the the weighting but not much more.

Big difference in realty but little difference in the managers portfolio

No wonder the funds management business is stuffed eh

Maybe thats why NZO shareprice has performed in line with the NZX over the last year

[oldowl]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10582725
OO

[winner69]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10582725
OO

Give the investor relations guy his due .... probably listening to your chat and thought he better do a bit of PR stuff explaining why .... good stuff