NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[KS]

Daily ShareChat: New Zealand Oil & Gas

By Jenny Ruth

Friday 6th November 2009

First NZ Capital analyst Jason Familton says he has reluctantly lowered his expectations of New Zealand Oil & Gas because of the strong share price performance ahead of planned well drilling.

"We recognise the risk of significant outperformance of the share if, in paricular, either the Albacore or Hoki exploration wells are successful, Familton says.

The company is drilling four wells over the next six months with drilling of the Albacore well starting in November followed by the Hoki well and then two wells near the company's existing Tui field.

"We view the Tui near-field drilling (scheduled for late in the first quarter of 2010) as providing a nearer-term driver of earnings, given the ability for it to be tied back rapidly into the already producing Tui development," Familton says.

"However, given their relative size, the Albacore and Hoki exploration wells, if successful, are likely to have a greater positive impact on the share than the Tui near-field drilling, despite its higher chance of success," he says.

Familton has cut his 2010 forecast net profit by 29.4% to $16.2 million from $22.9 million to reflect lower earnings from 29.5%-owned Pike River Coal and interest costs. He has also cut his valuation from $1.53 to $1.41 to reflect higher capital costs at the Kupe development, expected to be commissioned late this year, and the falling value of the company's US cash holdings.

[Snapper]

"Familton has cut his 2010 forecast net profit by 29.4% to $16.2 million from $22.9 million to reflect lower earnings from 29.5%-owned Pike River Coal and interest costs. He has also cut his valuation from $1.53 to $1.41 to reflect higher capital costs at the Kupe development, expected to be commissioned late this year, and the falling value of the company's US cash holdings."

I understood net profit to be $53.2 million for 09, is he talking about the half-year? Any relation to Relda?

[sideline]

"Familton..........and the falling value of the company's US cash holdings."

The value of those US cash holdings has actually been rising lately - amazing how
those analysts are always behind the curve. Personally I rate First NZ Capital and their
advice as underperform.

[fabs]

Or are they just trying to give the brokers main clients, the Speculators and Traders a leg up to get in as low as pos. to get a quick 10-25% or more profit, when the fun starts?

[Nevl]

Certainly puts NZOG in perspective

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...659615,00.html

Peak oil not as close as we think.

[friedegg]

[QUOTE=Nevl;280766]Certainly puts NZOG in perspective

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...659615,00.html

Peak oil not as close as we think.[/QUOTE
your talking iraq,id much rather have 80m barrells from taranaki than try to get 800m from iraq,i dont believe in peak oil myself because the likes of canada have vast amounts alone in tar sands etc but cheap oil is at its peak about now i think

[digger]

Certainly puts NZOG in perspective

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...659615,00.html

Peak oil not as close as we think.

Nevl,thanks for that article. It really has nothing new in it except desperation. Iraq has been known for decades to have a lot of untaped oil and the cost of getting it out should be cheap by world standards to extract---except for the every on going human factor.Of all resources the human resource is the largest by a country mile. All the oil majors know this and until very recently factored out Iraq because of this matter. The fact that they are signing up now to what was just recently unthinkable shows the desperate state of the world oil supply.
The Iraq fractions are locked into prepertical warfare that will go on all our life time. As more oil that becomes available it will just inflame more fighting.It is too ingrained into there culture.What is needed in Iraq is a new way of thinking and that is just not going to happen.From this article i read war and proof of Peak Oil.

[bermuda]

Nevl,thanks for that article. It really has nothing new in it except desperation. Iraq has been known for decades to have a lot of untaped oil and the cost of getting it out should be cheap by world standards to extract---except for the every on going human factor.Of all resources the human resource is the largest by a country mile. All the oil majors know this and until very recently factored out Iraq because of this matter. The fact that they are signing up now to what was just recently unthinkable shows the desperate state of the world oil supply.
The Iraq fractions are locked into prepertical warfare that will go on all our life time. As more oil that becomes available it will just inflame more fighting.It is too ingrained into there culture.What is needed in Iraq is a new way of thinking and that is just not going to happen.From this article i read war and proof of Peak Oil.

Digger,
Ticha has appeared with a very good U Tube on Peak Oil...on another site.( Under Heading...Oil Discussion).

Peak Oil is brought to us by people in the know ( geologists, experienced Enegy Bankers ) whereas the antipeak lads are economists or politicians who have little comparatve experience who have no idea what a crude depeltion of 6.7% per annum can do to the world.

NZOG is entering that 'Thrill and Drill' period again. Let's hope it is better this time. I am pretty sure it will be but the Coal Seam Gas story in Aussie has got me hooked. All the best to followers in the New Year.

Could be a big 2010 for NZOG.

[notie]

"could be a big year for NZOG"

Given their past history I very much doubt it.....
More likely the usual under preformance.

[the machine]

"could be a big year for NZOG"

Given their past history I very much doubt it.....
More likely the usual under preformance.

everyone is entitled to their views and mine differs by about 100%, given bought more nzo recently.

M