NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[Lion]

Given the NZO and AWE SP reaction, it seems that the market's written off Hoki-1. Presumably on the basis of the "not associated with any indications of hydrocarbons" line in the announcement above. Is that a fair assessment?

I'm no geologist, but I would have thought that with more zones of interest below, then at least no hydrocarbons have escaped from them up to the just-intersected North Cape sands. The ann talks of the upper Wainui formation - is there more than one Wainui formation to be drilled - anyone know?

I'm still hopeful for Hoki, then Tui has a much higher chance of success.

[notie]

I'm no geologist, but I would have thought that with more zones of interest below, then at least no hydrocarbons have escaped from them up to the just-intersected North Cape sands. The ann talks of the upper Wainui formation - is there more than one Wainui formation to be drilled - anyone know?

I'm still hopeful for Hoki, then Tui has a much higher chance of success.

If the first zone has no oil then the chances are much reduced that the zone below will have oil.
Hence the market interpreting this well as a dry one.

The two tui wells planned are only going to add some incremental reserves (10-15million) and nothing like the amount that could have been in Hoki (250 million barrels)

[digger]

If the first zone has no oil then the chances are much reduced that the zone below will have oil.
Hence the market interpreting this well as a dry one.

The two tui wells planned are only going to add some incremental reserves (10-15million) and nothing like the amount that could have been in Hoki (250 million barrels)

1000 to one you are probably correct Notie in saying that it is likely a duster. TUI was the exception in that when it was drilled it had 4 zones of interest with all the top three being dry.Then bang along came the f sands at the very bottom and that is how TUI came to life. So it is just not completely true that HOKI will be dry. It is still a long shot but you never know. True oilers keep hope alive even with the odds against them.

[Mr Tommy]

If the first zone has no oil then the chances are much reduced that the zone below will have oil.
Hence the market interpreting this well as a dry one.

The two tui wells planned are only going to add some incremental reserves (10-15million) and nothing like the amount that could have been in Hoki (250 million barrels)

Any idea if North Cape was the main target and Wainui secondary? How was the 250m barrels estimate split over these 2 zones? Doesnt seem to be any info available.

With Tui the main targets were dry but the final lowest zone had the oil, so still some chance with Hoki I guess.

[Paint it Black]

If the first zone has no oil then the chances are much reduced that the zone below will have oil.
Hence the market interpreting this well as a dry one.

The two tui wells planned are only going to add some incremental reserves (10-15million) and nothing like the amount that could have been in Hoki (250 million barrels)

I also think there are a lot of stop orders being triggered and an overreaction based on NZO's fundamentals.

Can you advise where the potential 10-15 million reserves at Tui number comes from? The exploration fields they are soon to drill seem to be the same size as the existing production fields looking at PPP's reports.

[fish]

Like you I think the market has misinterpreted what is happening-the drill isnt yet in the primary target
I would still give 10 to 1 odds that its dry
Anyway i have been buying nzo today on its cheap fundamentals

.
Once that work is completed, the Kan Tan IV will
be transported to New Zealand. The first well to
be drilled in New Zealand is Hoki-1, in which
NZOG has a 10% stake. Hoki is currently
expected to spud in January 2010.
Hoki is a large potentially oil-bearing prospect on
the western margin of the Taranaki basin. The
Hoki-1 well will test both the primary Island
Sandstone reservoir and a secondary target in
the North Cape formation.

[Lion]

. . . . will test both the primary Island
Sandstone reservoir and a secondary target in
the North Cape formation.

Island wasn't mentioned in today's announcement. Then there's Wainui too? Where's some decent info on these targets?
It will be fun if they find oil during the weekend (well fun at any time, but with market closed would be interesting)

[neopoleII]

this page dated 9 july 2009 says the primary is below the secondary target.
so nothing has at yet changed.
http://www.nzog.net/n153.html

[Lion]

I've read a dozen articles on the subject. They all mention North Cape as the upper, secondary target and either Island or Wainui as the primary target, lower down. Island and Wainui must be the same thing.
Hoki was billed as a possible "Saudi of the South" last year.
The 250m barrel target is still possible, my friends.

[fish]

AWE Limited reports that at 0600 hours (NZ Time) today, the Hoki-1 well, located in exploration permit PEP 38401 in the offshore Taranaki Basin, was at a measured depth of 3,428 metres and was drilling ahead. The well intersected the target North Cape Formation sands overnight, but these were not associated with any indications of hydrocarbons.
It is expected that over the next 24 hours the upper part of the Wainui Formation will be intersected.

So when I wake up around 6am tomorrow the primary target will be intersected . Preliminary results of the drill will be known sometime tomorrow .
Is it likely-or possible- that a market announcement will be made over the week-end ?