NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[boysy]

what sort of discount rate are we using to get the dollar figure then ?

[arjay]

I think it was Digger that earlier said it doesn't make sense giving out dividends now because in effec tthey'd be double-taxed. From an economic point that makes sense, however if NZO says to me, "hey, here's a pot of your money, we can either put the lot (less a little something for the directors Xmas stocking) into the slot machine of exploration at odds of 1:5, or we can use half of it for that purpose, double tax the rest and give you what's left"..... I think I'd take the $ even if it is double taxed.

[Hoop]

Oil price rising slowly in US$, NZ$ has dropped..... NZO price fell 1%, about the average fall of the NZSX for the day.

Another (many) example that NZO shareprice is running on emotion rather than fundamentals.

[bermuda]

Because NZ have a Tall Poppy Syndrome and because NZ dont have a dedicated Energy Reporter the only way for NZO to prove themselves is through financials that are currently being enriched at prices far in excess of those forecast and budgetted.

This is a very good time to buy. Reminds me of the inverse many many years ago when Robt Jones wrote to his shareholders at the very top of the cycle imploring them to keep buying.

Oil prices aint going down.Even the IEA and the Majors are now admitting it.

Sometimes I have to keep repeating myself.

[upside_umop]

Arjay, you have to look at the long run perspective of drilling. It is very attractive on expected returns but is definately risky on stand alone basis. But the more drills done, the amount of risk deviated from the expected return decreases.
You also have to ask yourself how they got to where they are now. They took the risk at Kupe and struck. They have taken risks at Hector, Taranui, but not. Its all risk and return, and in the long run it is in our, the shareholders interests.

Bermuda, what do you think oil will top out at?
Also, were you still so bullish when it dropped below $55 this year before bouncing back? Is there scope for this to happen again?

[bermuda]

Anything can happen in this game but if you want my opinion the USA is stuffed, the $US dollar is struffed, and oil is going higher.

[clips]

"For the options to be in the money in 7ish months time it would probably take a good quarterly cashflow pike producing coal and a sharebuy back. "

- two of those are very possibile, and maybe three......


"A lot will depend on coal oil and gas prices in the months ahead it sure is going to be interesting."

- well they look unlikely to be going down.....

[dsurf]

"For the options to be in the money in 7ish months time it would probably take a good quarterly cashflow pike producing coal and a sharebuy back. "

- two of those are very possibile, and maybe three......


"A lot will depend on coal oil and gas prices in the months ahead it sure is going to be interesting."

- well they look unlikely to be going down.....

1/ A good quarterly cashflow is a given isn't it? This thread has worked it out so many times before.

2/ Pike - The tunnell will be finished and Pike will be reporting production - From an accounting perspective will be interesting to see when in the transport chain revenue gets booked.

3/ Buyback - A sensible option - we will have to wait and see - Could be announced for the next year at any time - would be best after the next qaurterly for the year ahead and large - not only for the shareholders but also so the company doesn't get taken over.

4/ Kupe not mentioned - will get increasing press especially if looming gas shortages are predicted

5/ Takeover? This is a real possibility - NZO is getting substantially de-risked & has a strong revenue profile looking forward

Of course there are a number of things that could make things worse but look at the current position before being drawn into overall market gloom.

[duncan macgregor]

Anything can happen in this game but if you want my opinion the USA is stuffed, the $US dollar is struffed, and oil is going higher.

The real price of the commodoties you mention is measured in american dollars which as you say is stuffed. the price is not going up as much as you seem to think if you take that into consideration. The only thing that is not stuffed is the chinese economy in whose money the prices will be worked out against in the future. America is on a big downtrend even although they havent worked it out as yet. The NZ economy is being stuffed my investments are all on the ASX. Macdunk

[bermuda]

The real price of the commodoties you mention is measured in american dollars which as you say is stuffed. the price is not going up as much as you seem to think if you take that into consideration. The only thing that is not stuffed is the chinese economy in whose money the prices will be worked out against in the future. America is on a big downtrend even although they havent worked it out as yet. The NZ economy is being stuffed my investments are all on the ASX. Macdunk

Duncan,
There is a very good essay on petrodollars on www.petrodollarwarfare.com by William Clark dated 15 January 2007. It is 53 pages so it does take a bit of chewing through but it is well worth the read to get his opinion.

Would like your opinion on his opinion if you get time
Cheers