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  1. #1306
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Massive volume going through AIA - 7m shares so far.

    Looks like heading back to $10.00
    good a the last lot i brought was at $6 there about
    bull

  2. #1307
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    Climate change immigrants will be the biggest sector in the future. Maybe AIA need to build an international airport in invercargill soon

  3. #1308
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Climate change immigrants will be the biggest sector in the future. Maybe AIA need to build an international airport in invercargill soon
    You must be one of Sir Tim's mate's suggesting that Invercargill have international airport

  4. #1309
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    Nah ,saw him at a Nambassa or Sweetwaters festival entertaining the masses.I like to think about the future and outside the squares,Tim certainly used to do that.

  5. #1310
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    Today's result hasn't been well received by the market - SP down 17c.

    May have been a bit of over-anticipation - or perhaps overlooking the fact that last year's profit was boosted by the sale of the shareholding in Nth Queensland Airports.

  6. #1311
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    Chartists,

    Has a triple top been put in here @ $9.75-ish...?

  7. #1312
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    An unexpected, to me, pat on the back for AIA from Sam Stubbs of Kiwisaver fund Simplicity.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/118...on-the-decline

    Disc: Long time holder.

  8. #1313
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    visitor numbers down

    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/347632

    helping confirm peak tourism has been
    bull

  9. #1314
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    Quote Originally Posted by moimoi View Post
    Chartists,

    Has a triple top been put in here @ $9.75-ish...?
    IMO I don't think there was enough time between those tops to be sure on that one. I see it more as trading in a large range right now and that we are getting to the bottom of that 'box'.

    Just my view.

  10. #1315
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    Just happend to pass by this stock on my (sort of) monthly round - and from where I stand is AIA is now in a confirmed downtrend:

    AIAdown.JPG

    Suspect as well the recent virus hype won't help either - emptier and lesser planes are not good for business if you run an airport.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  11. #1316
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    Hey Pete,

    I agree with you in part, (IMO) we have a short term down trend, or I would call it a pull back from a fairly good bull run.

    Overall, AIA is in a long term up-trend, I'm no expert but it's got to be the easiest long term pick in the country for the next 30yrs and with the Moat and Monopoly, I don't see that changing.

    In terms of charting ( I did say ranging earlier and will have to agree that wasn't quite right) this is how I see it below.

    -Long term weekly we have an up-trend
    -Drill down to the daily and I see a nice pull back (down-trend). MACD is showing a loss of momentum to the downside and you can see price rounding off, If that makes sense. Pull up the MACD and you can see price diverging from the MACD. (not a play in itself)
    -We have also that long term TL below which is valid with multiple confirmations, but now we have spent a lot of time away from it. I suspect the experts will be at least having this in the back of their mind.
    -the $8.40 zone is the one on my alerts, I think the $8.65 has been broken through and that large short selling on the back of the quick pop yesterday had us close below that area.

    Confluence
    - I think have solid divergence, approaching a TL with support at that $8.40 area. For any PA traders I would be looking for a significant Pinbar or Bullish outside bar here. If not then I would be watching what we get when we return to the top TL and break through. I'm not predicting anything here, but the signs are there that a squeeze is on into this area. The fact that it is a great business and makes a ton of money (and will continue to after the noses have stopped running) means to me that a bull case exists in favour of downside.

    Just my 2 cents folks, constructive thoughts welcomed.


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  12. #1317
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    Some welcome analysis, I'll have to keep a closer eye on AIA and think about reentering. I've been out of it nearly 2 years after a period where it seemed to not be doing very much but might want a home for some funds soon.

  13. #1318
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    Quote Originally Posted by mondograss View Post
    Some welcome analysis, I'll have to keep a closer eye on AIA and think about reentering. I've been out of it nearly 2 years after a period where it seemed to not be doing very much but might want a home for some funds soon.
    AIA is no doubt a good company but used to be for a long time too dear (inflated by international funds buying in who see it as a positive alternative to negative interest bonds).

    Clearly can't hurt to keep it in the watchlist (well, it is on mine). Suspect however that there is at this stage no rush to enter, during a downtrend there never is.

    I'd wait for the next handful of months and monitor the international visitors numbers coming in.

    Anyway - just my 2 cents. From history I don't seem to be very good in predicting the short term market trend for super expensive companies, and this is one of them ;

    DYOR;
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  14. #1319
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    Already down 15 cents on the old outstanding order I got hit with that was placed weeks ago. Not worried much about it as it was hard getting some before on the price I was willing to pay then. Maybe the time has really come more. Just following gut feel as always.

  15. #1320
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RGR367 View Post
    Already down 15 cents on the old outstanding order I got hit with that was placed weeks ago. Not worried much about it as it was hard getting some before on the price I was willing to pay then. Maybe the time has really come more. Just following gut feel as always.
    Hmm - my spreadsheet shows fair value around $5.50 ... but - as indicated - there are some companies where Mr. Market disagrees strongly with me on fair value, and this is one of them. Don't let that influence your decisions .

    They say Mr. Market is always right until he is wrong and changing his views (as he frequently likes to do) - and then he is obviously right again.
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 30-01-2020 at 11:03 AM.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

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