Auckland International Airport Limited (AIA)

[Blue Skies]

easy to see another 20% reduction from here in the next couple of weeks. Bad news will keep comng for months though so no hurry to purch

The news is all grim grim grim, anticipating worst case scenario & we're at max uncertainty now.

With each passing month we'll be moving forwards towards more clarity, probably some good news around successful medication & vaccine trials & an eventual return to some normalcy.

That's the way I see it anyway.

[winner69]

Divie cancelled

[Balance]

Divie cancelled

Right thing to do - before stock goes ex.

Saves the airport $132m - will pay the wages & keep the staff there for a few months before international flights resume.

But what if they never*?

I am more worried about being stuck here in Jacindaland forever!

*Just joking.

[BlackPeter]

Right thing to do - before stock goes ex.

Saves the airport $132m - will pay the wages & keep the staff there for a few months before international flights resume.

But what if they never*?

I am more worried about being stuck here in Jacindaland forever!

*Just joking.

If they never come back? Well, I guess in this case AIA can always lease out or sell the runway and allow the government to build some of the planned Kiwi build houses along it ...

But seriously - they do have a lot of real estate which could be marketed.

[Bjauck]

If they never come back? Well, I guess in this case AIA can always lease out or sell the runway and allow the government to build some of the planned Kiwi build houses along it ...

But seriously - they do have a lot of real estate which could be marketed.

Quite a few years ago one of the bases on which my stockbroker recommended Auckland airport was that it was a big landowner and property developer.

I would be surprised if mass air travel did not bounce back as confidence returns. The general population would not be content for air travel to remain but only for an elite. Climate change concerns may see further efficiencies for engines and progress with pollution control..

[macduffy]

True, Bj, but the property won't be so valuable if the recession is prolonged and there is less activity in and around the airport. Okay, that's an extreme situation, but...…..

[Zaphod]

True, Bj, but the property won't be so valuable if the recession is prolonged and there is less activity in and around the airport. Okay, that's an extreme situation, but...…..

I agree, and we should remember that September 11 was viewed as a doomsday for the airline industry, and consequently airports. We recovered eventually, as we will from this. The length of time it will take is however very debatable.

[bull....]

Passenger numbers at Auckland International Airport down 44 per cent

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-...wn-44-per-cent

[trackers]

Passenger numbers at Auckland International Airport down 44 per cent


https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-...wn-44-per-cent

I was there last night at 5pm...rush hour. Dead as a door nail, couldn't believe it.... Although nothing can stop that bloody temporary Koru from always being full

5pm rush hour flight from AKL to CHC was 70% empty

[BlackPeter]

According to the analysts is this share currently starting to look like a bargain: Consensus SP is $7.66 and Buy Recommendation is a strong "HOLD" (5.9/10). But before we get too excited - how good have the analysts been in the past in the art of predicting the future?

In February 2019 the AIA share price peaked at $7.77. At that stage the combined mental power of 9 share market analysts forecasted that over the 12 months to February 2020 the AIA share price will drop by 17% to $6.46 (consensus). Obviously - we could argue that these wise men predicted already the current market crash, and just got the drop a bit early, but in that case did they predict the market crash for AIA already for a long time.

AIA actually peaked in February 2020 at $8.75, i.e. the actual share price was 35% above the consensus and SP moved into the opposite direction from the forecast (rise instead of drop) - i.e. analyst forecast is a clear FAIL.

Looking into the consensus buy recommendation - it was in February 2019 "UNDERPERFORM" (3.9/10) - i.e. analysts said that the share will underperform the NZX. NZX 50 went up by 21% and AIA went up by 13%. That's 8 % lower than the NZX performance and in the contet of this exercise a PASS.

I am doing this exercise as well with other NZX listed stocks - the overview is here:
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...arket-analysts

20 stock forecasts checked so far (checking for each consensus and buy recommendation);
Consensus share price forecasts correct: 4/20; analysts hitrate: 20%
Consensus recommendation vs NZX50 correct: 7/20; analysts hitrate: 35%

Based on this performance it might be questionable whether we want to trust the 'experts' with the current Buy recommendation.