Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
Just wondering how big their profit will be on this base?

2.5% of previous revenue (probably an optimistic guess)
70 to 80% of previous expenses (again - probably optimistic)

What possibly can go wrong?
Revenue drop will not be as severe as that – even during the Level 3 and Level 4 lockdown there were still modest numbers of international and domestic flights and they charge airlines for the privilege of parking on the tarmac. Then there's the rental income from the domestic properties (about 12% of total revenues in the last half year) and a very small amount of revenue from the hotels and retail within the airport (I assume these have not gone all the way to zero). For the current reporting period, there were also the few months before it all went pear-shaped and there may be a small pick up in domestic travel at the end.

Regardless, it would be astonishing if the current half year earnings and cash flow statements didn't include a lot of red ink and numbers in parentheses.

IMHO the current share price assumes a rapid return to something not too far short of the old normal as far as revenue is concerned. I can see a case for a no-quarantine trans-Tasman bubble, similar arrangements with some of the Pacific Islands and possibly travel corridors with places which have very limited local infection rates + a robust testing regime but even the optimist in me sees that as being months away (at best). A return to something approaching the old normal is a long way off (IMHO).