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  1. #1611
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    Fair comment, tango. I go along with that.

  2. #1612
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    From the paper that gives you Hawkesby and Hoskings here’s Mander’s opinion piece on AIA

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/n...ectid=12366039
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #1613
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    Possible positives for AIA with Aus/NZ bubble would assist recovery if Japan joins as well........ took the opportunity to top up today

    "Japan is planning to remove a ban on overseas travel to China and 11 other countries and regions including Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Vietnam and Malaysia next month while still advising against non-essential travel."

  4. #1614
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    With the share price heading back to 7 bucks can we assume that the short term uptrend from last September has now endth and that the downtrend from June 2019 (about $10) is still in place
    Attached Images Attached Images
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #1615
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    With the share price heading back to 7 bucks can we assume that the short term uptrend from last September has now endth and that the downtrend from June 2019 (about $10) is still in place
    Interesting chart ... and yes, I think a continuation of the downtrend would make a lot of sense from a fundamental perspective. On the other hand - SP does not always follow reason :
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  6. #1616
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    one of the rare times I actually agree with Morningstar.... (see snapshot below)
    other question I keep asking myself is, even after the vaccine rollout, how effective will it be and how long will it be before people will be able to obtain travel insurance again covering them against Covid? if they cant get cover, will this deter people from travelling and further slow recovery? no divis before... 2022? 2023?
    the TP of $6.50 seems completely feasible...

    Recommendation impact (last updated: 20/01/2021). Event analysis: Slow Vaccine Rollout to Delay Sydney and Auckland Airport Recovery, but Long-Term Growth Still Solid

    Vaccines don't end pandemics; vaccinations do. This fact has hampered the recovery expectations of many businesses, perhaps none more so than international travel. Despite the encouraging availability of several COVID-19 vaccines, which have largely tracked our expectations, the slow pace of vaccinations globally has kept the borders of Australia and New Zealand mostly closed to outside tourism. We still think there's pent-up travel demand among consumers, which should result in rapid growth in lucrative international traffic at each airport once borders are open. But with Australia's Health Department suggesting borders could remain closed through the better part of calendar 2021, and New Zealand likely following suit, we've pushed back our expected start to this rebound until late this year versus roughly March 2021 previously. Nonetheless, our fair value estimates for each company remain unchanged, at AUD 6.20 per security for Sydney Airport and NZD 6.50 (AUD 6.00) per share for Auckland, with Sydney screening as the more attractive of the two at present.

    Unsurprisingly, Sydney Airport continued to report international traffic near zero in December. Sydney's overseas passengers were down 77.5% in calendar 2020, to 3.8 million passengers, tracking our expectation. But our later expected rebound means we now forecast only 35% gains in calendar 2021, to 5.1 million passengers, compared with 80% growth to 6.8 million previously, with most of the year-over-year gains in the fourth quarter.

    Similarly, Auckland Airport's first-half fiscal 2021 will likely show sharp drops in its international traffic, with passengers already down 97% year-to-date through November 2020 versus the previous corresponding period, or pcp. Like Sydney, we've reduced our near-term rebound trajectory. We now forecast fiscal 2021 international passengers of only 619,000 versus 3.1 million previously, and fiscal 2022 of just 3.3 million compared with 7.9 million before."

  7. #1617
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    SYD down ~13% from recent highs after Nov 9 vaccine news, AIA only down ~9% over the same time period. still at least another 4% to go. puts it close to your $7 bucks eh winner

  8. #1618
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    "November 2020 Monthly traffic update

    Auckland Airport total passenger volumes decreased by 69.7% in November 2020
    versus last year. International passengers (excl. transits) were down 97.2%,
    transit passengers were down 94.1% and domestic passengers were down by
    38.3%."

    December 2020 Monthly traffic update preview

    Auckland Airport total passenger volumes decreased by 70.3% in December 2020 versus last year. International passengers (excl. transits) were down 97.3%, transit passengers were down 95.9% and domestic passengers were down by 32.2%.

    SP showing amazing resilience in light of the terrible passenger stats, which won't get much better until borders re-open around the world. Whenever that might be.
    Last edited by Baa_Baa; 25-01-2021 at 02:35 PM.

  9. #1619
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    With the share price heading back to 7 bucks can we assume that the short term uptrend from last September has now endth and that the downtrend from June 2019 (about $10) is still in place
    Share price below 7 bucks now - as post a week or so the short term uptrend has endth and the longer term downtrend (from about$10) is still in place

    Might drift down to 6 bucks something?

    Could be interested in taking a closer look but me old mate Hoop as said NZX starting to correct and when this happens one shouldn't even be tempted in buy in (particularly a downtrending stock)

    Will just keep an eye on the squiggly line on the chart methinks
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #1620
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    I see Kingfish still have sizeable pile of AIA shares (6.4% of portfolio)

    They said this in December update -

    Auckland Airport (-2%) was impacted by new community cases of COVID-19 in Auckland and parts of Australia, which delayed the timing of a possible fully open Trans-Tasman travel bubble.

    Seeing bubble looks a while off still suppose need to expect more weakness in AIA share price
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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