Auckland International Airport Limited (AIA)

[BlackPeter]

You are sounding a bit too desperate in trying to sound negative

Just stating the obvious & not tempted to buy at today's prices. They had today anyway retirement villages on special ;

Still curious - do you know how much above sea level the runway is?

Councils need now to plan for 1 in 200 year floods and 1 in 500 year floods (which both could happen tomorrow), but it will still take a couple of years until all this stuff is getting published. Just curious how much water they show above the runway for the next "one in two hundred years event".

[Bjauck]

... and there is another crisis which might bite AIA. From memory their only runway is quite close to the sea. Does anybody know how much above sea level this runway is? Allow a bit more global warming and it might be unusable. If it survives the next 3 decades (which is in my view not a given), than at a PE of 30 investors might just get their capital back - without any interest.

Yes Indeed, although The Covid recession could give them an extra year or two. Sydney and JFK runways are even closer to sea level if my internet search yielded correct elevations. I did not check any other coastal city runway elevations.

Auckland 7m
Sydney 6m
JFK (New York) 4m
Schiphol (amsterdam) -3m (gurgle, gurgle)

Wellington 13m

Sydney and JFK have multiple runways so not sure to which the google answers relate.

[ratkin]

Councils need now to plan for 1 in 200 year floods and 1 in 500 year floods (which both could happen tomorrow), but it will still take a couple of years until all this stuff is getting published. Just curious how much water they show above the runway for the next "one in two hundred years event".

By the time all these lock downs finish the sea level will probably be falling, not looking forward to the cold winters, it was warming up nicely before.

[blackcap]

Sea level has been rising at a steady 3mm per year or thereabouts (depending on whose data and modelling you believe) quite consistently. At 7m AIA is in no danger in the next 300 years at least. That will cause a 900mm rise or about 90cm. Still 6.1m above sea level and should be plenty to weather the odd storm etc.

[BlackPeter]

OK - so if the runway is at 7 m, than lets take 2 m for a king tide and 1 m for the base (you neither want the base nor the electric cables along the runway under water), they have still 4 m headroom to cater for global warming and the odd tsunami.

Not amazing, but yes, should be enough for any reasonable write off period.

Lets see how long the Covid holidays are - and who knows, maybe I get in below $4 ... ;

[Bjauck]

OK - so if the runway is at 7 m, than lets take 2 m for a king tide and 1 m for the base (you neither want the base nor the electric cables along the runway under water), they have still 4 m headroom to cater for global warming and the odd tsunami.

Not amazing, but yes, should be enough for any reasonable write off period.

Lets see how long the Covid holidays are - and who knows, maybe I get in below $4 ... ;

To get another couple of decades, Maybe a Seawall and Windmills could create an AIA Island with causeways to High Ground Auckland.....

[moimoi]

Is there an arbitrage here by selling some on market @ $5.48 to fund buying back in the SPP @ $4.66.?

Notwithstanding the risk of scaling in the event the SPP is oversubscribed.

[blackcap]

Is there an arbitrage here by selling some on market @ $5.48 to fund buying back in the SPP @ $4.66.?

Notwithstanding the risk of scaling in the event the SPP is oversubscribed.

The fact that the SP now is $5.48 and the SPP is at $4.66 means that it is inevitable that there will be huge scaling.

[tango]

The fact that the SP now is $5.48 and the SPP is at $4.66 means that it is inevitable that there will be huge scaling.

Do you think the scaling will be according to your shareholding, the amount you apply for or a combination?
Usually I have seen an allocation of shares based on your shareholding + the option to subscribe for extra but this just seems to be a free for all.

"You may apply for Auckland International Airport Limited (Auckland Airport) ordinary shares (Shares), up to a maximum value of NZ$50,000, in accordance with the terms and conditions in the accompanying Offer Document (Terms and Conditions). Please complete the value of the Shares for which you are applying, and complete the direct debit instruction."

[macduffy]

Assuming the issue is oversubscribed I would expect scaling to be based on shareholdings unless there is something contrary in the Term and Conditions of the Offer Document.