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  1. #1456
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    I for one do not want my ratepayer money, (or future ratepayer money if the Auckland Council borrow to fund this rights issue) going into this sector. I agree Peat, it will be many years before AIA are earning an acceptable return on investment again.
    I would suggest Auckland Council can print up as much as they like if they want to participate in a capital raise. Probably at exceptionally low rates too.
    https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/news...cid=spartanntp

  2. #1457
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    I do not get this. 20% more equity , no real revenue for 2 or so years , and a price of 4.66. I have not seen any projections to go with the issue. I have shares , not certain if we will take up the SPP. Probably won't.

  3. #1458
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    Quote Originally Posted by horus1 View Post
    I do not get this. 20% more equity , no real revenue for 2 or so years , and a price of 4.66. I have not seen any projections to go with the issue. I have shares , not certain if we will take up the SPP. Probably won't.
    2 years? I think you way out there.

  4. #1459
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    Quote Originally Posted by ratkin View Post
    2 years? I think you way out there.
    How long do you think? I think that it may take perhaps 5 years to get back up the passenger volumes prior to the epidemic and the resulting recession. That is not to say that AIA will not remain a lynchpin of the NZ economy.
    Last edited by Bjauck; 07-04-2020 at 10:11 AM.

  5. #1460
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    Quote Originally Posted by ratkin View Post
    2 years? I think you way out there.
    Depends what you define as "real", but I certainly wouldn't say it is anything near 2 years of "no real revenue", probably not even half a year of "no real revenue".

    Insto placement all done and dusted at $4.66 AFR reporting.

    I would think SPP is going to be bigly oversubscribed.

  6. #1461
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    Depends what you define as "real", but I certainly wouldn't say it is anything near 2 years of "no real revenue", probably not even half a year of "no real revenue".

    Insto placement all done and dusted at $4.66 AFR reporting.

    I would think SPP is going to be bigly oversubscribed.
    And Auckland Council decided to pass - getting diluted to 18% and missing on any upside of the placement shares.

  7. #1462
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    And Auckland Council decided to pass - getting diluted to 18% and missing on any upside of the placement shares.
    Who knows, they just might have been clever (or lucky?). I could well imagine scenarios over the next 12 months which will push the SP lower.

    Discl: got an offer to participate in the bidding but decided not to. Pretty sure there will be better opportunities later on in the game.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  8. #1463
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    A think there are a lot of long term holders who just want to secure a position and not look at the stock for 3-4 years and they’ll net from it I’m sure

    But during the current circumstances I imagine there’s further risk with horrible half year and full reports but I guess there’s a risk in waiting for and hoping those downramp the stock price too and whether they are “priced in”, and wil institutes just manipulate the price above this one OR will they intentionally buy now and sell later to net huge gains from the long term holders who panic at the next dip

    Disc not a holder

  9. #1464
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    And Auckland Council decided to pass - getting diluted to 18% and missing on any upside of the placement shares.
    Sad.

    Why Auckland Council should get out of the rest of its AIA shares.

    Monkeys like them only know how to count peanuts and suck on bananas.

  10. #1465
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    And Auckland Council decided to pass - getting diluted to 18% and missing on any upside of the placement shares.
    I think Auckland Council had no choice. Uncle Phil is on record as saying they are right at the top of their debt limits.

    SNOOPY
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

  11. #1466
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    My back of the envelope shows AIA on a PE of around 30 in three years time. I think I'll play in another sandpit.

  12. #1467
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    double post
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 19-04-2020 at 04:04 PM.

  13. #1468
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arthur View Post
    My back of the envelope shows AIA on a PE of around 30 in three years time. I think I'll play in another sandpit.
    Cheap as chips for an infrastructure stock... for example, I think the sector average PE in the power sector for FY21 is 34, and I'd back AIA to grow earnings over the long run significantly more than any power company listed on the NZX.

  14. #1469
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arthur View Post
    My back of the envelope shows AIA on a PE of around 30 in three years time. I think I'll play in another sandpit.
    I'd like to borrow your envelope, Arthur. The one I use can't tell me where things will be in a month's time, let alone 3 years hence!


  15. #1470
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    Cheap as chips for an infrastructure stock... for example, I think the sector average PE in the power sector for FY21 is 34, and I'd back AIA to grow earnings over the long run significantly more than any power company listed on the NZX.
    Well, its quite risky infrastructure - isn't it? Power companies are expensive because they make reliably money come rain, snow or sunshine. And sure - for AIA it used to look like they could as well just grow into one direction.

    However - we just learned that AIA might have a quite fickle earnings profile - i.e. it clearly deserves a lower PE than reliable money makers.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

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