Auckland International Airport Limited (AIA)

[Preston]

... Passing the Cross of Death as we speak. This would be the final indicator (if we would have needed one more) that AIA is now in a downtrend.

From a FA perspective - all these flight cancellations (e.g. Singapore Airlines, Air New Zealand) won't help. We probably need to wait for the virus hype to go away before green shoots might emerge.

Cross of death sounds serious!

yep, if we break that swing low, $8 is gonna be in reach! Some solid support there however.

Is that gonna be a good enough deal for the biggest monopoly in the country?

[BlackPeter]

Cross of death sounds serious!

yep, if we break that swing low, $8 is gonna be in reach! Some solid support there however.

Is that gonna be a good enough deal for the biggest monopoly in the country?

Picking bottoms is difficult ... but in my books looks AIA still quite overvalued: forward P/E of 30 together with an forwards earnings CAGR of below 4 ... hmm. Add to that the current uncertainties about travel and tourism.

Just noticed - Analyst consensus on future revenue and earnings have been sightly tweeked downwards, not that anybody would have called AIA a growth company before ...

[Beagle]

Chart looks ugly. Could we see a decent retracement back to test long term support at $5.90 ?
Growth is gone.

[winner69]

... Passing the Cross of Death as we speak. This would be the final indicator (if we would have needed one more) that AIA is now in a downtrend.

From a FA perspective - all these flight cancellations (e.g. Singapore Airlines, Air New Zealand) won't help. We probably need to wait for the virus hype to go away before green shoots might emerge.

In these sensitive times BP no need to be talking death things

[BlackPeter]

In these sensitive times BP it nood to be talking death things

Fair enough ... I wanted to say the MA50 dived below the MA 200 ... which is commonly known as the "cross of d***h" and a quite reliable lagging indicator for "would have been a good idea to sell about 6 months ago" ;

[Sideshow Bob]

Growth is gone.

Tail is trying to wag the dog. Minority shareholder no doubt pushing hard to get Wanaka as an alternate for growth to Qtown where they are constrained. Plenty of locals firing up!

[value_investor]

Decrease in passenger numbers in December and keep in mind this is before the effects of the coronavirus. Real story will be told in the Jan passenger numbers and of course the result tomorrow. Its a big knock on effect to shopping, parking and the hotel business they are now in.

A lot of money being spent to improve something that will in the interim be under the capacity required. It might be good for them to get a breather, tired of explaining to people why our national airport always looks like a shambles going through it. Some parts of it to me still feel like I'm walking through a massive garden shed.

Sold my shares in this to take profits off the table and now looks like I made a good call (doesn't always happen) as the valuation is still 37 times earnings and only growing at low single digits. It would have to come down a lot more for me to jump back into it at this stage.

I like this one a lot for the long term play, its the stock that I would close my eyes and invest in for the next 10-15 years on the NZX.

[bull....]

slight reduction in forecast earnings due to virus , guess they downgrade them later when more info is apparent

[ratkin]

Spending Billions
Earning Millions

But at least the market seems to like it, although I suspect it would have gone up today anyway as most things are.
Headwind for the future, carbon footprint of long distance travel.
Tailwinds for the future, population growth, better transport links to the airport

[Bjauck]

Spending Billions
Earning Millions

But at least the market seems to like it, although I suspect it would have gone up today anyway as most things are.
Headwind for the future, carbon footprint of long distance travel.
Tailwinds for the future, population growth, better transport links to the airport

True - carbon footprint is an issue in the absence of more efficient engines.

The related Food and produce miles is a big thing according to friends in the UK. How far does your food have to travel before reaching your plate? That would seem to work against NZ freight exports. However presumably it is not such a big thing for the current Conservative government as they have policies that will put up more barriers to trading with the EU, which is their largest and closest supplier of produce.