Auckland International Airport Limited (AIA)

[Blackrose]

Hi BD -

Well thanks for the kind words re wanting to stay on this forum - but will all forums you will get - people really. The kiwi way is to lower your expectations and then some haha.

Look - AIA is one of the few companies that are large enough to list on the NZX. It's around NZ's largest air port, it has the long term and short term car park leasing around it and has enough room to expand. NZ is going through a massive immigration influx at the moment.

However Auckland has massive issues in regards to a number of things. Firstly it is in the grips of an absolute cow of a housing bubble. Much like Vancouver, areas of South California, Melbourne, Sydney, - Auckland is in the grips of the most unaffordable realty bubble pumped up by some Chinese investors looking to launder money, some speculators that have flip houses for profit and a majority of owners that have been binging on cheap debt, buying to speculate on capital gains. With rising interest rates these CGs will go backwards. This has been going on for a good 17 years or so. It is cheaper to buy in Dubai rather than some areas of Auckland. Also people are trying to pretend it's not a bubble. But it is. Anyway. Auckland rains alot, there is traffic jams and infrastructure issues and it's a busy sprawl. Since the Whenuapai air port idea was scrapped so it could be turned in to housing- Auckland effectively doesn't have a 2nd option for an airport.

Anyway - other factors to consider. About 1 hours south of Auckland is Hamilton. If you stopped there, that's where over 51% of the population that is resident in NZ lives. AIA is the closest domestic and international terminal for about half the population. It is also the main area of cargo - with exception of Tauranga (A good company to look at is POT) and Christchurch harbors. Also factor in that 20% of Kiwis also live in Australia - making AIA a very busy airport indeed.

So you might be convinced by these two factors on their own, so let's look at some numbers.

Made $ 217 mil net profit last year, Forcast forward PE of 27.5 over 24m, Last actual gross yield 3.6%, Some analysts have a sell rating on it, a estimated price target around $6.08 - Currently trading at $6.70 (today 8/4)

IMHO this share is the one you want to have as a starter share. It's not going to set the world on fire, it's a steady dividend share, it's a share that is made for the buy and hold frame work of about 5 years or so and ideal for the slow growth steady as she goes crowd. It also is what it says it is on the can, it's a mid sized airport that processes luggage, people and cargo to NZ. It is not some fractional banking system hinged on a hedge fund that is betting in increments on the certainty of a IPO based around a patent or potential business plan. It's an airport.

So - I guess it's where your risk appetite is really. So I hope that's shed some more light on what AIA is and what it isn't. I also will add that I am not a financial advisor - I'm just a fairly content investor.

[ratkin]

Look - AIA is one of the few companies that are large enough to list on the NZX. It's around NZ's largest air port, it has the long term and short term car park leasing around it and has enough room to expand. NZ is going through a massive immigration influx at the moment.

LOOK, it is bad enough having to hear that awful expression, without seeing it written in print.

[Blackrose]

What bit is causing the offense ?

Sorry Mr Rat but... what bit is factually incorrect?

[Marilyn Munroe]

The Sydney Airport Corporation have decided not to exercise their option to build a second Sydney Airport in the west at Badgerys Creek.

I understand the Underarm Bowlers Federal Government will build the runway and terminal then flog them off.

A future opportunity for AIA?

Booop boop de do
Marilyn

[Bjauck]

What bit is causing the offense ?

Sorry Mr Rat but... what bit is factually incorrect?

I agree with your summary. I imagine it was the tautology and not the content to which ratkin objected.

[macduffy]

Auckland Council economist floats the idea of a sale of the Coumcil's stake in AIA.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11862774

Will probably come out this afternoon with "On the other hand......."

[Blackrose]

I think this is a great hold and grow stock.

[kiwichick]

I've been looking into getting into this stock for this reason. However, it does seem to be a bit more volatile than that other big hold-and-grow stock - Port of Tauranga. Looking over the charts, I see that AIA suffered a decline when the proverbial hit fan in 2008, but POT appears to have remained unscathed. Anyone have any idea how much AIA's profit relies on our current high migration rate and how a slow down might affect future profits?

[macduffy]

I don't know the answer to that one, kiwichick, but I'm pretty sure that tourism, the big majority of which flies into and out of Auckland, is a much bigger factor than the migration rate.

Disc: Holding AIA - since the IPO - for steady growth.

[arc]

I've been looking into getting into this stock for this reason. However, it does seem to be a bit more volatile than that other big hold-and-grow stock - Port of Tauranga. Looking over the charts, I see that AIA suffered a decline when the proverbial hit fan in 2008, but POT appears to have remained unscathed. Anyone have any idea how much AIA's profit relies on our current high migration rate and how a slow down might affect future profits?

I always look VERY closely at the present price and what has happened during the last year, 2 year, 3 year. and then the overview of 5+ years. To me AIA appears to have stalled from the beginning of 2016, it may be just temporary or not ?. I do have a small holding but that was from late 2015. Having said that, the overall underlying trend is still "positive" for both AIA and POT, which you most likely already knew.

The future is never certain so it also depends on if you get freaked out when you buy today and 3 months from now it tanks by 60 or 80 cents (and then rises again afterwards... it better !!).

OR hold Both... hedge your bets by going both ways.

Edit: Just having another look at AIA it seems the $7 range has been acting as an emotive cyclical peak.. ??

Have a browse through their Announcements on the NZX.com site.