Auckland International Airport Limited (AIA)

[Preston]

I feel like the NZ market for the most part has had companies in the ball park of fair valuation up until the last year or so. Meanwhile in the US I just canÂ’t get my head around how people can justify value in most of the popular stocks. ItÂ’s all printed money ending up in the market right? Or am I wrong? ItÂ’s not Mum and dad taking their billions out from the walls.

Interesting fact from a Joe Rogan Podcast

In the last 30years the bottom 50% of Americans have seen their wealth decrease by $900bn. In the same time the top 1% has seen an increase of $21trillion.

We havenÂ’t experienced that until now where a large investor shift is occurring. The BB gen need yield, and yes smart property and low interest rates will still make that play valid, but I canÂ’t help but think people are over 1987 and are really getting back in the game now. They can get great yield from an inflation protected asset without worrying about tenants. ItÂ’s not gonna go vertical like the US but I really think that these BB will need somewhere to stick the 3million they made off their property sale. Heck buy bank shares and make money off whoever had to buy your house and mortgage it up! (Not complaining, just observing)

I just see this shift in ‘older’ people I know and am making generalizations with no fact to back it up, but it’s an opinion I’ll put out there.

[winner69]

Runway itself falling to bits

Is this what happens when profits / shareholders come first? Like neglecting your assets.

[LAC]

Runway itself falling to bits

Is this what happens when profits / shareholders come first? Like neglecting your assets.

Yet the SP went up today....

[winner69]

Yet the SP went up today....

Maybe a case of profits first share price goes up

[BlackPeter]

Yet the SP went up today....

Is this what you call "Went up"? Well, yes, it returned (from below) into its long term downtrend channel ...

Attachment 10998

[Preston]

Can't get my TL to look anything like yours there Pete.

There are still Chinese carriers coming and going from the airport and that was a fairly quick fix. They have Maintenance on the runway being done every Monday morning where they fix stuff so no big deal here. Just a shame it happened in the middle of the day where there wasn't a large gap in traffic. I'd probably start breaking up too if 200Tonnes of tin kept landing on me over and over and over!

Definitely some keen buyers, think it'll bounce here off the $8.70ish and with any luck fill the gap before heading higher again. Top TL is the one to watch.

2cents

Screen Shot 2020-02-07 at 4.15.17 PM.jpg

[winner69]

Commentators like Cameron Bagrie know the root cause of the why runway is breaking up:

It ’s called short-termism. It’s a plague. Short term profit focus as opposed to the long game. Companies paying dividends that are too high as opposed to retaining earnings and reinvesting. Fonterra (payout) another example. Firms and investors (and analysts) need to be more long term focused

I added the analyst bit ...analysts per se have too much influence over companies.

[Preston]

Just wondering though here with the Runway issues, who it will affect more. Airlines or AIA ?

Won't be good for AIA reputation and of course expenditure. But I'd say any airlines who use it for long haul flights could be facing some potential challenges ahead.

[peat]

tbh I thought runway had been debunked as an ongoing issue and was simply a oncer
AIA have a lot of development projects - indeed lets remind ourselves that their 2019 Annual report was entitled 'Delivering for the Future'
AIA2019ARFP.JPG

[BlackPeter]

... Passing the Cross of Death as we speak. This would be the final indicator (if we would have needed one more) that AIA is now in a downtrend.

From a FA perspective - all these flight cancellations (e.g. Singapore Airlines, Air New Zealand) won't help. We probably need to wait for the virus hype to go away before green shoots might emerge.