Auckland International Airport Limited (AIA)

[BRICKS]

Good points, Z.
As you say, subject best pursued on another thread, except that AIA experience is one of the reasons why Kiwis are disinterested in the sharemarket.

WITH over 50 million AIA shares traded in the last 5 days would hardly call that Disinterested the trouble is KIWI`s is there love of real estate and debt if they could over cum the urge and swing to shares with NO debt NZ would be a better PLACE..

[CJ]

WITH over 50 million AIA shares traded in the last 5 days would hardly call that Disinterested.

How do you know they weren't foreigners - my guess is a large chunk were hedge funds.

[BRICKS]

How do you know they weren't foreigners - my guess is a large chunk were hedge funds.

WHAT matters is that the shares are going through the NZX and if you want to join in your WELCOME

[Steve]

With this distraction out of the way, where do people see 'fair-value' for the AIA shareprice?

[winner69]

With this distraction out of the way, where do people see 'fair-value' for the AIA shareprice?

Forecast earnings say 8-9 c/s with PE of market average 14 is $1.12-$1.26 (why should AIA have a PE in excess of 20? (ASB has maeket PE at 12 so at 12 is $0.96 - $1.08

Forecast dividend is 8 cents so a grossed up 10% yield gives about 1.20 Putting some reasonable sort of numbers in a DDM gave $0.96 stretched to $1.46 if some of the growth assumptions are changed.

Even using EBITDA multplies and the like hard to come up with anything like $2.00.

So using the numbers above say about $1.20 .... maybe another takeover in the wind somewhere so add a premium of say $0.40 and you end up with $1.60

Maybe there is another pension fund happy with 5% long term returns and as such happy to pay over the odds today ...... or maybe a Macquarie who with a fair degree of financial engineering would probably see $4.00 worth of value but then they wouldn't have to pay that much today would they.

Why worry what the fundamnetals might suggest what a fair value is .... isn't fair value what people are prepared to pay for it ..... a while ago some said $3.60 but today it is only a tad over $2.00

What do you think is 'fair value' Steve ........ and are you buying at todays price.

[redzone]

my fair value is about $1.80..$1.90....nothing more....

[777]

my fair value is about $1.80..$1.90....nothing more....

So why did the Canadians offer so much?

A premium of 100%.....

[BRICKS]

my fair value is about $1.80..$1.90....nothing more....

69, where you a sleep when you wrote that rubbish..

redzone, How many do you own at any PRICE..

777, IF you cant work it out by now you never WILL..

Steve, the fair price is what ever you can GET..

AIA, is $2.17 cents..

[Steve]

Now it could be time for a bit of activity behind the scenes...

Airport chairman in the hot seat amid Canada bid fallout
A big Auckland International Airport (AIA) shareholder has lost confidence in chairman Tony Frankham as the man to take the company forward after the failed partial takeover bid by a Canadian pension fund, the Sunday Star-Times understands.

It has also learnt significant institutional shareholders regard Frankham as a compromise chairman elected to try to keep disparate elements together in what they regard as a largely dysfunctional board.

[Steve]

What do you think is 'fair value' Steve ........ and are you buying at todays price.

My current estimate is approx $1.75 based on similar models to what you have used. I am not buying at todays price. In fact, I have not bought any more since the initial IPO...