Auckland International Airport Limited (AIA)

[percy]

12 months to end of April

Buy and hold duration gives 32% return

Trade moosies buy/sell signals with constant trade size gives 55% return (and only holding for about 1/2 the year)

Trade moosies buy/sell signals but increasing trade size each time from prior profits gives 70% return (again only in for 1/2year)

So $100k starting fund gives $32k return for holding or $55k / $70k doing it the moosie way ....plus what moosie would make on trading the other 1/2 year when cash not in AIA

No divies / cap returns in calculation but I reckon moosie would have been in to get these as well

MASSIVE ......go for it mate


Also ignored the second of two sell signals in a row ....heck you could have done shorting as well (not holding at that time) .....add another 10%to the above numbers

Looks as though this "old dog" is learning a good few new tricks.
May take time as I now have so many lines on the charts I am looking at, I am getting mixed up. lol.
Thank you.

[robbo24]

Yes, MASSIVE!

Robbo, if you're not careful I'll phone up your boss and tell him to promote you

I'll call your boss... Wait, nm.

[Xerof]

Unfortunately, I think all you've uncovered is an algo with big balls.

[Xerof]

Churning < 1% is easily able to run a price up and down. What proportion of the total never get traded? 80%?

Just a theory, but reckon it's happening all over the paddock these days.

Who? Anyone with control over large share parcels will be active. Familiar names usually high up on the registers would be my guess

[Xerof]

Moosie, your good mate couta has picked the same sort of activity on RYM, more so since entering those global indices, so it could also be as simple as 'risk on, risk off' activity, which is all we ever really see on Wall Street, day in, day out in trending markets

also, beware of your indicators showing clear turning points when you 'look back' to the past, as most of those indicators 're-paint' after the fact, as new trading data accumulates as time goes forward. It's not always as it seems, and presents a different picture when "live"

HTH

[percy]

Moosie, your good mate couta has picked the same sort of activity on RYM, more so since entering those global indices, so it could also be as simple as 'risk on, risk off' activity, which is all we ever really see on Wall Street, day in, day out in trending markets

also, beware of your indicators showing clear turning points when you 'look back' to the past, as most of those indicators 're-paint' after the fact, as new trading data accumulates as time goes forward. It's not always as it seems, and presents a different picture when "live"

HTH

To think I thought Moosie had give me the road map to fast vast profits!!! lol.

[robbo24]

Duly noted Captain. Caution shall be my watchword here!

Sorry to Robbo if my exposure of this leads to a tanking of the stock (yeah right...)

I'm not worried about tanking Moosie... I just get the sense that hourly PSAR update posts may get this nice, calm thread into a frenzy... And have a destabilizing effect on the stock.

[couta1]

LOL at getting negative reputation points for this thread. Some of you guys need to chill the **** out.

Looks like Holy ground over here and the faithful don't like you Newbies stuffing things up Disc-Dont hold so everyone is safe to buy

[percy]

Looking for a fall back to $3.90-3.95 level for a buy

I recently sold down a few AIA at $3.93.Reason being I expect lower earnings [ by approx. $4mil] with the duty free number of cigarettes reduced from 200 to 50.The PE at 26.97 is already very high, and the yield at 1.61 is rather low.Have had a great run with them.
I note the MACD confirms sp weakness.

[macduffy]

I recently sold down a few AIA at $3.93.Reason being I expect lower earnings [ by approx. $4mil] with the duty free number of cigarettes reduced from 200 to 50.The PE at 26.97 is already very high, and the yield at 1.61 is rather low.Have had a great run with them.
I note the MACD confirms sp weakness.

Certainly looking on the weak side from a TA point of view but I wonder how much effect the ciggy duty free bit will have on AIA? I assume that the duty free operator's rental is somehow linked to turnover but how much is that contributing to the airport's "retail" revenue?

Incidentally, that 1.61% yield is a net number - the gross yield including imputation credits is rather more respectable although still not in "income stock" territory.

Now, where does that leave moosie's "buy" level?