BLT - Blis Technologies

[pierre]

Here are some very rough maths to estimate the impact of the new BLT distribution deal in Oz. This is just my absolute stab in the dark so your alternative view is welcomed.

Initial sell-in to 5000 Aussie pharmacies generated (say) $1.5million in sales to BLT in FY19 just ended

(hopefully this is conservative).

The product goes Ok in the market and repeat purchases over the next 12 months generate say $5 million in new sales to the end of FY20.

What is the net income gain for BLT for FY20? Well, if most overhead costs are already covered, then 20-25% net on those sales should be reasonably achievable.

With a few other tail winds we might possibly be looking at an FY20 NPBT in the order of $1.5m to $2.0m. What do you think?

Meantime, I've just ordered some more Toothguard online as my contribution to the coming year's result.

[GR8DAY]

Here are some very rough maths to estimate the impact of the new BLT distribution deal in Oz. This is just my absolute stab in the dark so your alternative view is welcomed.

Initial sell-in to 5000 Aussie pharmacies generated (say) $1.5million in sales to BLT in FY19 just ended

(hopefully this is conservative).

The product goes Ok in the market and repeat purchases over the next 12 months generate say $5 million in new sales to the end of FY20.

What is the net income gain for BLT for FY20? Well, if most overhead costs are already covered, then 20-25% net on those sales should be reasonably achievable.

With a few other tail winds we might possibly be looking at an FY20 NPBT in the order of $1.5m to $2.0m. What do you think?

Meantime, I've just ordered some more Toothguard online as my contribution to the coming year's result.

..........all very doable I'd think Pierre. But that's just Oz so you might have to be adding into that further sales made in other countries, if that's achieved by FY20? ( I doubt iNOVA will be sitting on their laurels waiting to see how the products go just in Oz, surely they'll be marketing/distributing into Asia/Africa ASAP?) Exciting times ahead for Blis........just hope we're kept in the loop with REGULAR UPDATES. !!

[fungus pudding]

Here are some very rough maths to estimate the impact of the new BLT distribution deal in Oz. This is just my absolute stab in the dark so your alternative view is welcomed.

Initial sell-in to 5000 Aussie pharmacies generated (say) $1.5million in sales to BLT in FY19 just ended

(hopefully this is conservative).

The product goes Ok in the market and repeat purchases over the next 12 months generate say $5 million in new sales to the end of FY20.

What is the net income gain for BLT for FY20? Well, if most overhead costs are already covered, then 20-25% net on those sales should be reasonably achievable.

With a few other tail winds we might possibly be looking at an FY20 NPBT in the order of $1.5m to $2.0m. What do you think?

Meantime, I've just ordered some more Toothguard online as my contribution to the coming year's result.

As a non-invested, casual observer of Blis, I'd question the assumption that the product will go well in the market. Has it ever gone well in any market?

[pierre]

As a non-invested, casual observer of Blis, I'd question the assumption that the product will go well in the market. Has it ever gone well in any market?

Fair enough question from a totally cynical perspective, however, I only suggested that "the product goes OK in the market" - not well.

Total revenue in FY19 excluding Oz was around $7m so the products ARE being sold elsewhere.

For easy maths, let's assume a cost price per unit sold of $10. To generate $5 million of sales for BLT requires 5000 pharmacies to purchase an average of 100 units each over 12 months - that's 2 units per week per outlet. That's not exactly phenomenal market penetration, so volume in that order would appear to be feasible in a market of +/-25 million people.

Once again, these are very rough calculations, and done with no knowledge whatsoever of costs and margins.

My numbers are purely guesstimates and it will be interesting to see how things proceed this year. Some quarterly updates will be well received and hopefully will support an increasing SP over the next 12 months (though I note the hysteria of the past couple of days has subsided a little this morning - as expected).

As Gr8Day says, there are other market opportunities too with iNOVA that are not factored into my calculations.

I'm still very cautious (i.e. not investing any further) but optimistic that the iNOVA tie-up just might be a significant development for BLT.

[Arthur]

If Aussie goes half as well as NZ it will bring in about 2 million. Many NZ companies have crashed and burned on that sort of assumption. I am cautious as Canada should be selling truckloads - they can legally claim it works in Canada, but still relatively poor sales. In Italy their research suggests mega sales are possible, but still no significant sales traction. In Italy and Canada alone I had hoped with those strong tailwinds sales would top $20 million(which would roughly equate to their NZ sales per capita). I would like to be wrong, but I doubt Aussie sales will be as much as the NZ ones. Hopefully Canada and Italy are just slow starters, but building momentum.

[GR8DAY]

If Aussie goes half as well as NZ it will bring in about 2 million. Many NZ companies have crashed and burned on that sort of assumption. I am cautious as Canada should be selling truckloads - they can legally claim it works in Canada, but still relatively poor sales. In Italy their research suggests mega sales are possible, but still no significant sales traction. In Italy and Canada alone I had hoped with those strong tailwinds sales would top $20 million(which would roughly equate to their NZ sales per capita). I would like to be wrong, but I doubt Aussie sales will be as much as the NZ ones. Hopefully Canada and Italy are just slow starters, but building momentum.

.......NOT SURE I AGREE with your statement ARTHUR that Oz may not be as big as NZ sales? Apart from the obvious population numbers Oz have those Mega pharmacy chains everywhere now (incl in supermarkets) . The Ozzies appear to be big on supplements (they cant grow there own veges etc like we can?). So I guess Blis may soon be on those shelves in a bigger way through iNOVA .....the big difference though is BLIS will be/IS the main player in ORAL Probiotics. There may be some other different product there already but they will contain BLIS ingredients anyway (M12/M18) so we will be getting a double whammy effect from the iNOVA marketing push. Just my thoughts.......clearly I'm optimistic going forward.

[artemis]

I think Blis probiotics are more of a slow burn item. If you look on Amazon for K12 and M18 there are quite a few products containing them under various brand names, but the number of reviews is still quite low.

Quite a few reviews mention curing persistent bad breath, has to be a powerful selling point.

[pierre]

Nice to see independent BLT Director Alison Stewart now has some skin in the game. Probably only enough to cover her pinky finger - but it's a start in the right direction - and made after the FY19 upgrade announcement.

[whatsup]

Back to its recent highs, where to from here , building we hope as its been a very long road.

[GR8DAY]

Good to see yet another director (Geoffrey plunkett) choosing to get a bit of skin in the game by purchasing 800,000 shares on market. Rising SP playing catch-up now .