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  1. #5521
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    Re Half year report: Is "stock buildup" codeword for "no one wants to buy our product"??

  2. #5522
    2019 NZ Stock Picking Winner silverblizzard888's Avatar
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    Is ignorance Blis?

    If Blis can't manage to keep consistent sales or if their customers can't keep sales up that they begin to stock pile their product, then it places a big question mark on the stability of the company, will this happen again in the future? Good, but costly product with no mainstream appeal yet. They need a page from the Yakult ($10 billion company) play book.

  3. #5523
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    the product just does not look good on the shelf,the packaging is so bad that customers are just not drawn to it.I spent forever looking for blis products in my local pharmacy.Instead of paying the directors massive increases the money would have been better spent on a good marketing company.Get the product moving and word of mouth will soon increase sales

    Disc holding just not worth selling

  4. #5524
    Go The Warriors "This Year!"
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    Looks like I can kiss that investment goodbye ....lucky it's only a small amount ...😂

  5. #5525
    Divorced from logic Hectorplains's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by steveb View Post
    ...word of mouth will soon increase sales

    Disc holding just not worth selling
    Best pun of the day. What happened to their K9 market? I leave that for someone else to deliver the punch line.

  6. #5526
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    I asked about k9 at a show they were at and it sounded like that wasn’t happening.

    The new ceo has managed to drive this sp down from 6 c to 1.8. Extremely disappointing.

    Feeling very flat about blis at the mo.

  7. #5527
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    When a company keeps promising better times ahead, and occasionally delivers but principally disappoints - behavior of a drug addict or alcoholic.

    Would you trust your money with such a person?

  8. #5528
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    I continue to try to get a clear handle on the how this is playing out for my own peace of mind.

    I spent the last couple of years expressing ongoing confusion about where the company is now headed, and accordingly over that period I slowly sold down and now I no longer hold, as I said recently. But though I am no longer a shareholder, yet I like to understand what I am seeing.

    Looking at the last couple of years of announcements, the following strikes me as significant:

    AGM Presentations: Note the considerable change in these statements from the old management to the new:
    • AGM Presentation July 2015: "• Strategy is building a solid base of ingredient sales .. and to broaden the base of BLIS branded and co-branded oral health consumer sales with trade partners in key markets"
    • AGM Presentation July 2016: "• Increasing the proportion of revenue delivered through branded finished goods • Driving global value propositions"


    2016, March Annual report:
    • "A core function of the Board is to regularly review strategy and to monitor performance against key outcomes. Some key outcomes of our recent strategy review have highlighted certain particular aspects as follows. We re-affirmed the purpose of the company as leadership in the commercial applications of BLISTM-producing microbes. We defined key outcomes in three key areas: positioning our products, our supply chain and the pipeline of new products, each of which is outlined in more detail below."
    • Positioning: "We are moving our focus towards being a supplier of BLISTM-branded finished goods (including prominent co-branding) to help ensure that Blis Technologies is recognised as the source. Our value proposition to our customers and consumers is that we understand their needs so that we can deliver a real health benefit. Therefore, we will seek to engage more directly in the consumer relationship."
    • Supply Chain: "We see the company as the core source of knowledge about our BLISTM products. Therefore, we will invest more in developing the internal expertise and processes all through our supply chain: this goes from the organism to fermentation to formulation to end-products, including regulatory aspects and clinical efficacy right through to the consumer."
    • Product Pipeline: "[Paraphrase: We will put work into reviewing our intellectual property for future use]"


    2016, September Half year report:
    • Positioning: "We are moving our focus towards being a supplier of BLISTM-branded finished goods (including prominent co-branding) to help ensure that Blis Technologies is recognised as the source. This is based on our increased understanding of the customer value proposition and supported by credible clinical data. At the same time branded ingredient sales will be actively managed recognising this important revenue stream. New initiatives include.
    • HoneyBlis TM in NZ and Australia
    • Co-Branding initiative in Japan
    • New launch activity in Europe
    • Revised agreement with our NZ distributor
    • Supply Chain: "We see the company as the core source of knowledge about our BLISTM products. To support this capability build, we have employed a new Business Manager and a Technical Manager and continue to focus on future capacity needs to meet market demand."


    2017, March Annual report:
    • Positioning: "We are moving our focus towards being a supplier of BLIS®-branded finished goods (including prominent co-branding) to help ensure that Blis Technologies is recognized as the source; this is a means of future-proofing the business by developing a closer relationship with customers and consumers.
    • Launch of new product offers: BLIS M18® products, ToothGuardTM and ToothGuardTM Junior into NZ retail, HoneyBlis TM launched in Australia and NZ, BLIS EliteProTM (high dose BLIS K12® targeted at athletes) launched, and ongoing collaboration with elite sports organisations
    • Appointment of a new advertising agency to support marketing and launch activity, Website development with launch early in the 2018 financial year, significantly refining both the on-line sales channel and corporate communication.


    2017, September half year report:
    • Positioning: "We are moving our focus towards being a supplier of BLISTM-branded finished goods (including prominent co-branding) to help ensure that the Company is recognised as the source."



    Conclusion?

    It is all pretty consistent looking back at those reports: it is all about finished goods now, not ingredients. I think it would have been much easier for me to understand back then if the report of two years ago had included this phrase: "We are completely changing our strategy" - if I am correct in understanding that that is what has happened.

    Barry put forward his own initial strategy about 10 years ago. As I recall it, he proposed that Blis was too small to do global marketing and the solution was to develop a whole stack of global alliances based on ingredient sales. He then set about doing so and sales were going pretty well by the time he left.

    It would now appear (to me anyway) that the company then must have decided it had the resources to attempt global marketing itself, or some hybrid of that anyway. I could be wrong about that though. Either way, the 2016 report does say they reviewed the situation and the board have endorsed the strategy, and since then they have consistently said they are moving to a finished goods strategy, which would appear to me anyway to be a considerable change of direction. The board might be presumed to have deliberately chosen the new CEO to pursue that strategy, since the board went out of its way to say in the first subsequent report that "a core function of the Board is to regularly review strategy".


    So, I do not claim to be correct by any means. I am just looking for possible interpretations of events. But looking back on the last couple of years of reports, it does seem to me that that is what has happened here. The company has deliberately adopted a very different strategy and spent quite a lot of money to pursue it. As I say, I personally would have preferred that they had made a big thing of making sure we all understood that at the time, but I suppose they feel they did.


    If that analysis is correct (and I do say "if") then the situation now is somewhat easier to understand. There has been a major shift in strategy, and a whole lot of expenditure/investment to achieve that, and presently the company is in a half-way house where the old strategy is perhaps not delivering as strongly as when it was the focus of the company but neither is the new strategy yet delivering strong results to replace that. On top of which, there seems to have been the same ongoing random bad news to cope with, and which always costs in terms of both strategy and cash.

    If so, then what next? Well, there I have no idea. That this new strategy is consuming money presently is probably pretty clear. Expenditure of the company has increased significantly over the last couple of years. That the new strategy will pay off remains to be seen in the future presumably. The working capital position is obviously something to keep an eye on, and they do mention "may seek additional capital" in the notes on page 11 but which they link to ongoing investment in the future.


    Am I going to buy back in based on my new interpretation of what we are seeing? Not personally, but I do feel better that at least I can see why they are doing what they are doing. If I am right about any of this anyway, which I may easily not be!

    Discl: Not a shareholder, DYOR.
    Last edited by simla; 21-11-2017 at 08:16 AM.

  9. #5529
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    Thanks Simla, very interesting. I use the product and believe in it (and recommend to all and sundry) but I am starting to wonder if I should just cut my losses and put what money is left into something that might actually make some money (certainly HBL, PPH and ATM have been providing me with that)

    Actually for the sake of everyone else I should probably do that, because you can bet that once I sell the price will go up

    I have to admit though I always thought of my BLIS shares as ones I was just going to let sit quietly and flog off in 10 or so years. I guess if I was a shareholder 10 years ago and had thought that, I wouldnt be very happy today. Makes me re-evaluate my (admittedly poorly thought out) strategy. Believing in a product doesnt necessarily equate to making any money.

  10. #5530
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    Quote Originally Posted by suse View Post
    I am starting to wonder if I should just cut my losses
    Yeah, well, not the happiest report ever, there's no denying it. The company didn't need negative cash flow. I suppose each investor needs to decide what they anticipate happening next.
    Last edited by simla; 21-11-2017 at 04:38 PM.

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