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  1. #1001
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    Agree with you, Emearg, that the structure of BLT looks like it should turn out profits from relatively low sales volumes. I have always felt the mathematics was on BLT's side.

    But we seem to disagree on when the cash will flow to shareholders. I think you are expecting that Blis will take advantage of cash to invest heavily in the future, whereas I expect they will balance that with feeding the shareholders. Considering we seem both to be near the top of the polls on optimism on Blis, it is quite odd how differently we see the result for shareholders!

  2. #1002
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    Quote Originally Posted by simla View Post
    I think you are expecting that Blis will take advantage of cash to invest heavily in the future, whereas I expect they will balance that with feeding the shareholders. Considering we seem both to be near the top of the polls on optimism on Blis, it is quite odd how differently we see the result for shareholders!
    Invest heavily? Anything I say here would just be my opinion. Barry has said they will invest in product development. How heavily???

    There will be a limit to how much they can invest in the regulatory work, as it requires huge input from the technical people with the product knowledge. This is bad from a rapid growth point of view, but good from a cash burn perspective.

    I'm optimistic Blis will do well given time. I'm not so optimistic that there will be large profits anytime soon, nor as I have said before do I expect dividends anytime soon.

    I could be wrong as noted before.

    Basically I'm open minded about dividends. I would love them but don't have my heart set on them.

    Looking back a year or 18 months some contributors thought we would already have been receiving them by now. Obviously that was a little optimistic. I am trying to be realistic.

    Plus I now have more preference shares than ordinaries (at a conversion ratio of 25 to 1) so I have a nice dividend stream from them.

    It is excellent to have so many different opinions being expressed. As we have both noted before, one only has to look back two, five or more years to see the optimism that has been expressed on these threads. There are a lot of disappointed contributors/BLT share owners. Only now is the company starting to get going. Will it go as far as we hope? We don't know. Will it go far enough to have a reliable dividend stream? Still speculative in my opinion but far less so than 18 months ago!!

    Still, I would rather own BLT than WDT.

    Anybody want to buy some WDT?

    Sell your dodgy BLT and buy some of my WDT please ;-)

    Go on!! You know you want to...

  3. #1003
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    Okay, sounds like we disagree on how fast the growth can be then. I confess to being pretty optimistic on where revenue goes from here, but I can't cite anything to justify it except gut instinct. This where it gets exciting, I hope. Already, it is only 12 weeks to the end of the financial year, and Blis are still expecting quite a few developments during that time according to the last report.

    Good on you for having a bash with WDT. This year will be pretty important to them too. I'm still keeping an eye on them.

  4. #1004
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    Quote Originally Posted by brucea View Post
    Where have you guys been? - health products are big business - eg the herbal antidepressant St John's wort enjoys enormous world-wide sales (maybe boosted by long-suffering Blis shareholders!)

    Talking of St Johns Wort have you guys looked at Blackmores (BKL.ASX) to see what is possible in these types of markets

    Now a $200m plus sales company with NPAT margins over 19% .... revenues growing every year .... up from $60m 10 years ago


    With a shareprice of $21 Blackmores market cap is $350m .... trades a 1.7 annual sales and a PE of 17 ... to give you some idea of valuations at maturity .... and they have been in business since the 1930's

  5. #1005
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    Well, big numbers are certainly possible. Bioguard sells for US$18.69. What if BLT got $5 of that on the grounds that the product revolves entirely around K12. And if it sells into all of the US, or $300m people, what if it sold 3 million bottles over winter, or one bottle per 100 people? (Or one household in 600 buying two bottles, which would be like 40,000 bottles into NZ.) After all, if Costco have turnover of $71b, that's $236 per person in the US by my maths (which is pretty incredible to me), so they know how to sell things. And they seem to be pushing Bioguard in their emails, so perhaps in-store too. And if not this winter, then next?

    That would be big numbers for sure, certainly somewhat more than 50% sales growth. But unfortunately we have absolutely no way whatsoever of judging appropriate scale at all, so we'll just have to wait. Always fun to imagine big numbers though, isn't it!

  6. #1006
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    Quote Originally Posted by emearg View Post
    Invest heavily? Anything I say here would just be my opinion. Barry has said they will invest in product development. How heavily???
    Yes, I probably put the "heavily" in myself. But Blis has done everything on a big scale for a while now. I find it difficult to believe that that momentum is going to stop any time soon. They are already looking at products that are not just for the mouth, aren't they? Set up your distribution and marketing channels on a worldwide basis, build up brand credibility ... then the next logical step would be to insert more things into the channel, perhaps?

  7. #1007
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    Quote Originally Posted by simla View Post
    They are already looking at products that are not just for the mouth, aren't they? Set up your distribution and marketing channels on a worldwide basis, build up brand credibility ... then the next logical step would be to insert more things into the channel, perhaps?
    Yes, I think your conclusion is spot on. Adding more products should be relatively cheap once the ground work has been completed. Getting M18 out there should be far easier than it was to launch K12. Q24 or whatever comes next should be similar if the products have a fair bit in common?

  8. #1008
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    Quote Originally Posted by simla View Post
    Well, big numbers are certainly possible. Bioguard sells for US$18.69. What if BLT got $5 of that on the grounds that the product revolves entirely around K12. And if it sells into all of the US, or $300m people, what if it sold 3 million bottles over winter, or one bottle per 100 people? (Or one household in 600 buying two bottles, which would be like 40,000 bottles into NZ.) After all, if Costco have turnover of $71b, that's $236 per person in the US by my maths (which is pretty incredible to me), so they know how to sell things. And they seem to be pushing Bioguard in their emails, so perhaps in-store too. And if not this winter, then next?

    That would be big numbers for sure, certainly somewhat more than 50% sales growth. But unfortunately we have absolutely no way whatsoever of judging appropriate scale at all, so we'll just have to wait. Always fun to imagine big numbers though, isn't it!
    Good fun indeed!

    Considering there is Blis, Frutarom, Imagenetix and Costco in the chain I doubt very much that Blis gets $5 per sale. Having said that, I have no idea how much they will get, but if I was to play numbers I would think $2 or $3 might be a more realistic figure?

    But you might be right at $5

    It is really hard to know who will get how much of the pie under the structure that is in place.

  9. #1009
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    It is great to hear views on this post that somehow support my own on the future bright prospects of Blis! Cynical friends of mine muse that one day in the (hopefully) distant future when I am on my deathbed I will hear that Blis have finally made a huge profit and their shares have zoomed and that I will be so p****d off at the irony of it all that it will finish me off .... my nieces and nephews will be out partying no doubt (I am single). By the way, I have a few other speculative shares - WDT (enuff said), Charlies (alas) and Xero (promising). I hold more shares with mainstream, but boring, companies.
    Last edited by brucea; 04-01-2010 at 07:47 PM.

  10. #1010
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    Quote Originally Posted by simla View Post
    Costco have turnover of $71b, that's $236 per person in the US by my maths (which is pretty incredible to me), so they know how to sell things.
    For comparison The Warehouse does NZ$370 odd per perosn in NZ ... and they don't have any food while Woolworths in NZ do nearly NZ$1,200 per person

    Just for interest sake

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