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  1. #3021
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    so a few months ago guidance was a loss of $1.3m and today it is $1.8m

    methinks it there is more than just restructuring costs as the reason for the downgrade .... almost hidden at the bottom of a press release headed "Bliss moving forward' .... looks more backward to me

  2. #3022
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    Quote Originally Posted by simla View Post
    You may be right, Winner. They're stopping manufacture of ice cream but intend continuing to sell it. They're cutting back for costs, but talking of having more space to process the product. There is no discussion of future prospects, except that the GRAS sales in NZ have been well received. A cut back in revenue stream, but one that was making a loss. It's hard to make anything too concrete of all that put together. Maybe CJ is right that they were just obliged to make a statement under the rules. And maybe it doesn't add up to any great gain or loss.
    It's not hard to make anything of that at all. The ice-cream is rubbish and was never going to compete in a FMCG market. Everyone, apart from those with horse blinders on, could see that.
    Last edited by fungus pudding; 18-02-2013 at 11:45 PM.

  3. #3023
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    The difference in guidance is 500,000, seems reasonable given a couple of redundancies, a couple of hires, moving base, reducing outsourcing, changes to manufacturing, etc

  4. #3024
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    Okay, Emearg, maybe this reconciles our two views a little.

    Yesterday's statement contained three main points from our point of view I would have said: the relocation, the closure of the Gourmet brand, and the 1.8m loss.

    The relocation itself is a business decision that shows creative thinking and is surely of no particular concern other than cost, and probably is good news viewed alone.

    The closure of the Gourmet brand is more difficult to interpret. Clearly the company was going for proof of concept from the beginning, as they've stated. Was Blis a sellable proposition as a GRAS item? The main reason I've monitored the supermarkets so much is because I've been pretty damned interested in that answer too, and I've actually been a bit surprised that others seemingly haven't. Nobody in Auckland seems able to tell us how things were received in Auckland, which seems valuable information to me. Scuttlebutt requires a bit of work. Anyway, what I saw, and what the company just confirmed, is that this stuff was well received. That's brilliant news given its impact on the company's future.

    But what of the cost of that proof of concept? Clearly it has cost the company a fair bit of valuable cash to go there. Will another party now continue probiotic ice cream in NZ? Well, if not then a very valuable proof of concept was gained at some expense, but you would have to think that will help gain overseas progress on GRAS. If someone does run with it here, then not just a proof of concept but a lasting monument to the value of GRAS sales has been gained at some cost. And if someone runs with it here on profitable terms (and I can't see why not) then the company made an investment that not only produces a lasting monument but a profit stream, again at some cost to cash. We don't know which of these will turn out to be the case, but a valuable gain was definitely achieved at least.

    And what of the profitability of the Gourmet sales? FP reasonably says the stuff was not profitable in the FMCG market (Fast-Moving Consumer Goods). But where was it going? Barry has successfully run a very large Dairy Company (no, not our proverbial corner dairy!) and undoubtedly knows all that sort of stuff. I assumed they could afford to gain the economies of scale when necessary for the up-market end of the ice cream market in NZ given that that market is not huge in NZ, and therefore the sales were either profitable now or could be made so later. This BLT statement says they considered doing that but decided the money would be more use elsewhere. So they are effectively instead hoping to outsource with the licensing plan since they have decided to keep the stuff in the market if they can. So I assume that means Blis could have afforded to gain those economies of scale in principle, but the continued delay in overseas revenue made that too hard. Maybe I was being naive on this aspect, but I don't really think so.

    So was Gourmet worth it anyway? Well, definitely I would say given the need to show Blis's GRAS sellability. Could it have been done cheaper without buying Gourmet? Maybe. But then they wouldn't have had the control to really push the product nationwide, control the branding, and market support levels, all of which is surely important to make the proof of concept work. Is it disappointing that Gourmet is closing? That depends on what follows next, which we don't know yet.

    Which then leaves the 1.8m news. The Blis accounts aren't detailed enough that we'll probably ever learn much about what that is. As Stu says, it's perfectly easy to rationalise, but we won't know for sure probably. The main problem is that apparently there has been no obvious increase in overseas revenue presently, which is disappointing since we shareholders have little clarity on what to expect there, and has cash implications presumably. How important is that on the bigger picture? Again, we don't know yet.

    So, yes, some bad news in there. But I would say there was definitely some good news in there too.

  5. #3025
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    Todays ODT

    Jobs to go as Blis heads for a record loss

    Yesterday, Blis further downgraded expected annual losses, edging towards a record $2 million loss for the year, fuelled by about $500,000 in restructuring and relocation costs.
    This financial year will be Blis' ninth consecutive - and largest - loss. Its losses since listing on the stock exchange in 2004 total $9.8 million. ....

    http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/246230/jobs-go-blis-heads-record-loss


    Happy to not be a holder

  6. #3026
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    Remember, Moosie, he who laughs last didn't get the joke. No, wait ...

    A couple of points in that article.

    "a Chinese distributor was working on a launch, possibly by the end of the year, subject to gaining regulatory approvals. "

    And the losses ramped up in the last two years after Blis changed distributor. We know that was expensively disruptive but obviously we need them to get the sales flowing again. Some info would be nice.

  7. #3027
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    The thing is, Moosie, that most of the Blis shareholders don't march to the drum of Mr Market. We're here to create something valuable for NZ and worthwhile for the world. Obviously we all hope to make money on it too, but we're mostly here for the long run because that's what it takes to create a company like Blis. That's why we don't get too upset about the twists and turns of the company nor rip into management over each and every move. We know this thing is very difficult and we appreciate how very hard the company is working. Of course, that doesn't mean we don't want better news!

  8. #3028
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    Quote Originally Posted by moosie_900 View Post
    Ouch today...
    bu why not yesterday. A few M&D's reading the ODT this morning and got spooked.

    Buyers have naturally dryed up.

    The thing is we still dont have enough info re the 'licensing agreement" to determine how bad (or more unlikely good) this is.
    Free delivery worldwide with Book Depository http://www.bookdepository.co.uk

  9. #3029
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    Agree Simla........now thats twice already today you've been reprimanded Moose!! (bloody traders ah!)
    Have a Gr8day.

  10. #3030
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    I think people often react to a moving shareprice. Now that it has started to decline, fear kicks in so people want to avoid a big loss. Or maybe a stoploss was set on their account and sell orders are being forced through. The lack of depth on the buy side is definitely concerning - if 1.9c was to break then there's nothing until 1.2c! I'm sure other buyers will appear if the price shifts south any further, but at face value, this doesn't look pretty. The IP hasn't changed though - I think Blis still has massive potential; you just need to be prepared for a wild ride along the way!

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