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  1. #3381
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    Heck, yeah!

    A. The shareholders have put up $1.4m in the face of a difficult couple of years. And they're aren't seemingly selling down for a quick profit.

    B. Yes, I do think the company is totally interested in its shareholders. Feathers got ruffled in the conversion, but that wasn't the company's doing. Further, the company now has several cornerstone shareholders, which has been accomodated by existing parties.

    This company has needed its shareholders - you plain need money. The previous release even said, "He says fortunately the company has a sophisticated shareholder base that understands what is required in order to get market access." When was the last time you heard a company thank it's shareholders spontaneously?

  2. #3382
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    I would add that this company has slogged away for years putting together this very large plan. I really do believe they are doing it for civic-minded reasons, although pretty obviously everyone also hopes to make a profit. I also feel it's pretty clear there is a nucleus of shareholders who are standing behind it with the same intent. I think the shareholders and the company officers are aware of each other's intentions, although obviously a loose collection of random people will have a range of motivations and views. I form these opinions by reading an awful lot of stuff over several years.

    Once things get off the ground, I dare say the usual commercial imperatives will start driving this company as any other. But for the present I remain very impressed that people are prepared to pitch in until this thing is done.

    I also feel people don't appreciate just how different these products are. Colds are a rarity in my household where they used to be common. And the dentist is always raving about my mouth - "if only everyone came in here like this". When the antibiotics run out - and they will soon - people will be very glad that this sort of thing exists. Much of the probiotic industry is so much pixel dust, but Blis is most assuredly not in that group. I think this view is present in the mind of the good folks of Dunedin, next to the very university where it was developed, and in the mind of many shareholders.

  3. #3383
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    Well, there it is - less than 4 million shares changed hands today despite 140 million new shares being issued today, and with only a small decrease in price. Meanwhile, shareholders subscribed almost the asked for $1.5m despite a difficult couple of years.

    To me, that suggests: (a) this company will be backed by shareholders until it succeeds (failing black swan events, of course); (b) There is now some strength in support of the share price; and so (c) any good news is likely to be reflected in the share price from here on in (maybe!).

    If I correctly judge the tone of the company's statements, there shouldn't be another issue after this - because they see profit ahead, and they have quite a bit of cash now. If so, buyers of this share will actually have to start bidding for it from here on in. No more lazily waiting for yet another issue at a cheap price? Let's hope so, anyway.

  4. #3384
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    When's the Sinopharm visit - this month, right? That relationship is a massive opportunity. Fingers crossed the visit exceeds expectations.

  5. #3385
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    What we need now Simla, is a positive half-year announcement from BLT at the end of next week which includes a more definite forecast of impending profitability. Words more specific than "the foreseeable future" will be incredibly helpful to the SP.

    That, and news of traction in a few markets, particularly in China, will finally convince the market that BLT is making progress in commercialising its IP. With a population over 4 times that of the USA, China has to have huge market potential for Blis technologies. The trick of course, is to find a way to achieve cost-effective distribution into that population but the company is already working with a partner on that issue.

    Like you, I've continued to back BLT and I expect to see the share as a 10 bagger within 3-5 years. Maybe it wont ever reach the same stratosphere as PEB but a creep in SP from 1.5c to 10 or 15 cents over that time doesn't seem impossible. Announcement of a major deal in China could see it spike sooner.

    I don't know if BLT does have enough cash in the bank to really achieve their goals. However, when they're making money and need more capital to continue their expansion then I'm sure there will be plenty of current (and new) investors willing to continue to support the company.

    It would be great to see the capitalisation reaching something over $100 million, accompanied by a share consolidation to bring BLT out of the penny dreadful department.

    The half-year announcement due shortly will tell us whether BLT stands for a company with a future or just a sandwich you can get at almost any café.
    Last edited by pierre; 08-11-2013 at 07:30 PM. Reason: grammar

  6. #3386
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    Yes, it seems fairly likely that Blis is going somewhere now. But we don't have enough info yet on where or when. Progress in China would be good, but hardly an overnight project I'd have thought - a very big place. A general uptick in multiple markets would still produce pretty good news.

    I don't know why everyone assumes BLT is less than P EB. They both, and like X RO, have viable products but need to gain enough market acceptance. I'd have said Blis was ahead of the others on the path to profitability personally, but time will tell what their ultimate potentials are, of course. On the other hand, BLT (1.5 cents, 1000m shares) only seems to need less than 0.1 cents per share profit for the current share price at PE 20, or $0.7m pa; P EB ($1.26, 280m shares) seems to need 6.3 cents per share profit PE 20, or about $18m pa; and X RO ($35.21, 127m shares) needs 176 cents per share profit PE 20, or $223m pa. Check the figures and maths yourself, obviously, but maybe you can see why I think BLT should give a return on share price first. Mr Market doesn't seem to agree though, so what would I know.

    Anyway, BLT is suddenly looking like it could win. But we wait to see what actually happens.
    Last edited by simla; 08-11-2013 at 07:54 PM.

  7. #3387
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    Quote Originally Posted by simla View Post
    Yes, it seems fairly likely that Blis is going somewhere now. But we don't have enough info yet on where or when. Progress in China would be good, but hardly an overnight project I'd have thought - a very big place. A general uptick in multiple markets would still produce pretty good news.

    I don't know why everyone assumes BLT is less than P EB. They both, and like X RO, have viable products but need to gain enough market acceptance. I'd have said Blis was ahead of the others on the path to profitability personally, but time will tell what their ultimate potentials are, of course. On the other hand, BLT (1.5 cents, 1000m shares) only seems to need less than 0.1 cents per share profit for the current share price at PE 20, or $0.7m pa; P EB ($1.26, 280m shares) seems to need 6.3 cents per share profit PE 20, or about $18m pa; and X RO ($35.21, 127m shares) needs 176 cents per share profit PE 20, or $223m pa. Check the figures and maths yourself, obviously, but maybe you can see why I think BLT should give a return on share price first. Mr Market doesn't seem to agree though, so what would I know.

    Anyway, BLT is suddenly looking like it could win. But we wait to see what actually happens.
    The difference, clearly, is management. While BLIS management seems (to me anyway), quite unfocussed and taking a "let's try this" approach to achieving sales, both PEB's and XRO's are very focussed. They also deliver on what they say, consistently performing to, or beyond expectations. I have said this before, but when you invest in a company you are investing in its management for forward looking growth, BLIS doesn't appear to offer much in the way of exceptional management, just middling. PEBs appear to have very good quality management in the form of leadership and commitment. XRO has very good management in terms of track record and ability. Until BLIS's management prove they can be focussed and excel at what they should be doing, people won't be convinced they are going to be successful in the future.

    You can have an amazing product, but with terrible management it will all go down the toilet. RAK case in point.

    I bet if you asked BLIS shareholders who ran the company, half of them wouldn't even know. But ask the same question to XRO or PEB shareholders... and does everyone realise that BLIS only has 11 staff members?

    DISC: I hold BLT shares, in the hope management can learn to be better!
    Last edited by blobbles; 08-11-2013 at 08:59 PM. Reason: Added DISC

  8. #3388
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    Quote Originally Posted by blobbles View Post
    taking a "let's try this" approach to achieving sales
    Do they have a choice? X RO are selling accounting software - an extremely well established market. P EB are selling medical tests - an extremely well established market.

    But who do you know selling probiotics? When did you last buy any personally? Yoghurt is the only product consumers understand. Well, Blis stated very early on that food was the way to go, particularly dairy, and GRAS was the objective. But it's taken several years to get legal rights. I have read very widely on the legal requirements of probiotics and I can tell you the lid has been slammed down very hard indeed worldwide during the time Blis have been doing this and they are actually doing pretty well to have got where they are with permissions. The company has stated quite a few times how extremely frustrating it is to have to get through all these legal barriers.

  9. #3389
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    Quote Originally Posted by simla View Post
    Do they have a choice? X RO are selling accounting software - an extremely well established market. P EB are selling medical tests - an extremely well established market.

    But who do you know selling probiotics? When did you last buy any personally? Yoghurt is the only product consumers understand. Well, Blis stated very early on that food was the way to go, particularly dairy, and GRAS was the objective. But it's taken several years to get legal rights. I have read very widely on the legal requirements of probiotics and I can tell you the lid has been slammed down very hard indeed worldwide during the time Blis have been doing this and they are actually doing pretty well to have got where they are with permissions. The company has stated quite a few times how extremely frustrating it is to have to get through all these legal barriers.
    IMHO probiotics aren't at all unique in terms of market/saleability.

    Vitamins are sold everywhere as a health improver/immunity defence, whatever. Food supplements/fortifiers are also sold all over the show, an example being artificial sweeteners (said of course to lower calories and be healthier as a result). Just because BLIS's product is planning on, for example, lowering strep virus infections to improve health, does not make it hugely different. It is a supplement you take to improve health. The little pill has something in it different to what is currently being sold, sure, but does this make it an entirely new market? I would say NO. It makes it a new type of medicine, sure, but there are clearly established sales pathways for health improvement or food supplement additives aiming at health improvement.

    The company has done damn well to get through all the legal barriers, that is a testament to the science and lawyers. But that's not what it needs now (although further blind tests involving hundreds of people wouldn't hurt), it now needs marketing and sales. And THAT is what the company appears to be poor at. If nobody knows about your products, you haven't got people knocking on doors selling the story of your product, even if it is an amazing story, then it will never happen.

    PEB have the best test on the market as a possible replacement for a test that sticks a tube up your pee pee. If sales just happened based on potential, they would be selling hundreds of thousands of the buggers by now. But it doesn't, it requires sales teams, plans and targets, all of which PEB has implemented and is measuring themselves against. And these things, as shareholders of a company we want profit from, we measure them on and will respond badly if they don't deliver. BLIS isn't even delivering on the plans yet, hence it is in the doldrums.

  10. #3390
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    Yes they need to sharpen their marketing thats for sure,go to your local health store and chances are they will not stock Bliss products but they will have a full range of Inner Health or Go Healthy products or is the NZ market not important to Bliss.

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