BLT - Blis Technologies

[blobbles]

http://www.royalsociety.org.nz/2003/07/28/blis-7/

Just one of the earliest I could find with a light search.

[GR8DAY]

Nice to hear from you again, Bobby. Hope all's well.

As you say, they haven't made such projections ... since the current management took over. And now that management has done so, for the first time.

Yes, I'm hoping for reward for my patience. Not much danger of people getting carried away on this group since it is not exactly awash in people agreeing with my point of view!

........hey Im still a believer SIMLA! Fortunately not a long-term holder so I prefer to focus on the more recent history and I still remain hopeful that this leading edge biotech company will succeed on a global scale. I really do think it's just a matter of time and momentum. And I do agree the report is not negative at all .....in fact quite the contrary.

Roll on 2015 I say.........!!

[simla]

Roll on 2015 I say.........!!

Good on you, Gr8Day. And the 2015 year starts in ... just two weeks.

[simla]

Sorry, Moosie, but I've made the mistake of accepting that sort of bet with someone long ago. Not twice.

You carefully define total success as being the only criteria for success, and everything else is implied to be failure.

So, under your bet I lose even if the place has booming sales and the share price is taking off unless they have enough income over the coming twelve months to cover all their costs, including almost inevitable expansion of costs if they are indeed expanding quickly.

Since we already know that the holdups in factory approval are eating into their possible income, and seeing as we know there will be start-up costs this year in moving into the nutritional food area, and as we do not know what write-offs are in the wing from the factory and deals ... etc

If Blis does well this year, no qualifications will be needed. We'll know. I'm happy to just see how it goes.

[Nigel]

The talk is still of 'operational profit' in the next six months - am I right in saying that may not be an actual profit in the next HY or FY report? (e.g. they may start trading with positive cash-flow towards the end of the next 6 month period, but overall for that period they still make a loss). Am I interpreting that correctly?

FYI, I'm still optimistic about the future for these guys. I had (still have) big hopes for the China / Middle East connections who have come on board... just may take a bit of time to see developments in those markets.

[simla]

Hi, Nigel. I don't recall Blis using "operating profit/loss" before, so not sure exactly what they will mean. The internet defines it as earnings before interest and tax, which sounds pretty much like the bottom line from our point of view. In fact, if Blis still has money in the bank then interest should be positive (and tax should be nil if the IRD allows past losses, and positive anyway on losses).

Here's some of what I read their statement to mean. https://www.nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/248160

They anticipate an operating loss to September 2014, and then "move into operating profit" in the following six months. I'm not getting too excited about exactly what that means as obviously there is no knowing exactly how the new factory product(s) are going to sell, so it's quite high on conjecture, I assume, although they may have some forward orders in their pockets. We don't know if they anticipate the first half loss will exceed the second half profit (assuming either of those even come to pass) and therefore whether they hope for a full year profit or not. I imagine they aren't sure either. We also don't know what write-offs are around from this recent factory activity.

Some detail in the announcement was perhaps not entirely transparent in it's wording. Trading revenue last year, FY2013, (excluding ice cream) was about 700k. You will I'm sure recall how rocky things got with revenue while Blis changed distributors.This last year (FY2014) apparently it was up to 1250k, an 80% increase by my calculations, and despite them also saying some US shipments were held back due to (yet more new) regulations around border control there. All that is in paragraphs 5 and 6 of that announcement.

Further, the projected loss this year, FY2014, includes about 350k in extra write offs due to a change in accounting policies about development capitilisation. I think the 350k must be real expenditure from FY2014, but in comparing apples with apples the loss would be 1.35m compared to last year's 1.85m. This anyway was impacted by two events. Firstly, the US sales were less than they would have been except for the border problems. And secondly, Blis finished the factory six months ago and the fact it has not been signed off due to red tape has presumably cost the company quite a bit of sales revenue. This from paragraphs 4,5, and 7.

They talk of strong growth anticipated in all existing product sectors, paragraph 8. We don't know what they base that on. Again, I would expect they must have some indication of forward orders, and presumably it is also based on growth in sales figures they are already seeing.

Yes, we shareholders cannot possibly know what will happen next. All we can say from that announcement is that they are pretty hopeful, enough to come into print to say they hope for profit, which the current management have not done before to my knowledge.

I'm not expecting people to jump and down with joy over this announcement. Each will read it differently. But for me it is another in a line of consistently positive announcements for over a year now, and I do not understand why that consistency is being devalued as just "more of the same". Me, I'm very hopeful after that announcement, but I recognise that nothing is in the bag yet too, so I'll be a whole lot happier when I hear of actual profit, just like anyone else. Happily at least 3 announcements are due in the next 8 months: May report, July (?) AGM and Nov report.

[croesus]

In defense of Moosie... he pays up with a smile.

Blobbles... best post I have read on the the S/T forum in a long time.

[GR8DAY]

.....SIMLA IVE GOT TO CONGRATULATE YOU ON YOUR (oops caps lock off) thoroughly balanced and unbiased interpretation of things. You clearly have an excellent handle on all things BLIS related and I really enjoy reading your thoughtful ramblings. It is very apparent that many contributors to this discussion do NOT have such a specialized understanding (myself included) but choose to add nothing but negativity based on ancient history!! I personally prefer to look forward in a balanced fashion and like you believe BLIS will deliver a sustainable and profitable business in the not too distant future.(lets say a year or 2?) I continue to put my money where my mouth is and hope to be holding 5m shares before the years out.

[Mule]

I'm with Simla and Gr8day on this one, their products are definitely gaining more traction in the market which is also apparent in the update. I don't really care about what happened 2, 5 or 10 years ago, I'm hooked on the product at the moment. I've been using the daily throat guard for 8 months now and haven't had a sore throat since which I find incredible (I usually have several a year), if I can make it through winter without an infection then I'll be truly AMAZED. I'm actually a little bit in disbelief as to why I haven't had an infection yet. Has anyone else had positive results? Or anyone stopped using their products because of poor results?

[Harvey Specter]

So just because it is negativity it is disregarded? That's an unfair assessment, especially considering we have cited the companies ongoing promoses of a profit over a decade now...

Always a historian. XRO made promises of profits at one stage too.

While in some cases, what has happened in the past is a good indicator for the future, that is not always the case. Simla is of the view they have turned the corner and are executing to plan. So, do you disagree that their plan will not be profitable, or do you disagree that they are not executing to plan?