BLT - Blis Technologies

[simla]

Well this doesnt sound good at all, and screams warning to me...why have all these BLT bulls not commented on this.

If you are referring to me as a BLT bull, then I'd instead say I've been cautiously optimistic most of the time. I've always, always, referred to the uncertainty of the outcome.

But I haven't commented on that incident myself because:

1. I'm not responsible for running the company, I'm just an investor.
2. Nobody rings anybody any more anyway, so I don't think it has crippled the company. Yes, that sort of thing is INCREDIBLY irritating, but I don't think it will have affected a lot of people.
3. Like it goes better when you ring big companies like Telecom, your bank, whatever? No, everybody grits their teeth before attempting that.
4. They are a small company making do with limited resources. I'm sure it will change faster if they get the money.

Sorry, not really sure what you're looking for there. If this represented widespread failure, that would be a worry. It seems more likely to me that they have to prioritise their use of resource and they don't get a lot of land line phone calls.

[simla]

Simla. hats off to you... your optimism is legendary... kaipai the good

Thanks, Croesus (I think!) To explain my optimism, this is the hypothesis I work from here. I do NOT claim to be correct, merely saying what I work from if anyone's interested.

1. New plan, started 2007?, makes sense to me. This has been incredibly difficult to implement, due to the scale of the plan, the limited resources, and a staggeringly hostile legal world for probiotics ever since the plan was launched. Neverthless, it is substantially on track where I'm sitting. I could be wrong, but that's my opinion.
2. The change of distributor, which started in early 2009/10?, was a hugely difficult exercise. It seems to have cost a lot of money and lost revenue, but the company must have felt it was worth it. Certainly the signs are now gathering of good impetus and I'm inclined to think it was a good idea. I suspect the company itself did not realise quite what a long protracted affair it would be, but I imagine they are pleased anyway as they usually like to take the right long term decisions (or so it seems.) In particular, I think many naysayers have not correctly factored in this delay. (I have heard elsewhere that almost all startups change distributors, because the distributors seldom realise how serious their clients are, and that the changeover is always really hard. Nothing new here then?)
3. Accordingly, I have reasonable hopes that revenue will pick up more quickly now that the changeover is complete. Company forecasts so far support that view.
4. Events with the share price a couple of years ago were quite unfortunate for subsequent capital raising, but also great for shareholders who persisted and managed to buy in cheaply afterwards - IF it pays off!
5. Regulations have played merry hell with Blis. It's like the Gods are throwing thunderbolts at Blis for sport. Every time they move, someone decides to "tighten" regulations. This is sheer bad luck. Recent examples have been whatever the problem was shipping to America, and this huge fuss over Chinese dairy exports. To Blis's enormous credit, they have put their chins down on every single one of these and buggered on.
6. GRAS sales promise to be profitable. You can see this by comparing the number of people in health supplement shops with the number in supermarkets. The company has occasionally said that "it's future was in dairy". It's unfortunate that the ice cream wasn't selling at a profit, but it certainly showed that money awaits. They sold twice the revenue in NZ on a new product through ice cream than they did on the NZ pill sales. And the company actually did not declare the exercise a disaster, but said they needed to invest capital to make a profit, and they would prefer doing it in other food types, which we are now seeing. I am pretty convinced that the whole upcoming Asia GRAS business is heavily built on the evidence gained from the ice cream, but I have no proof of that.
7. If GRAS works we're away (I hope!), otherwise whole thing looking more difficult and slow growing. So I'm really interested to see what happens in the coming year. But ingredient sales are growing too, so maybe sunshine around every corner? Who knows.
8. Potential other products are underestimated by some, I believe.
9. The mix of big share holders makes a takeover difficult (I believe), so existing shareholders stand to see the results more than happens with some companies perhaps? I'm no expert though.
10. The team is pretty strong if you ask me. As the Blis site says, "[The CEO's] experience in international marketing and in the management of business operations includes commercialising technology driven businesses within the New Zealand Dairy Board, establishing Tatua Co-Op Dairy Co. as a highly profitable specialist company and in transforming Westland Milk Products from a dairy company marketing commodity products into an International Nutritional Company." I've searched on the Westland side and it's one of the main reasons I see this working. For example, here's a 2003 article, "While [Fonterra chap] was ousted from Fonterra Co-operative Group last week, the dairy industry honoured his two highest-ranking competitors. Tatua chief executive Mike Matthews and Westland's Barry Richardson received the industry's leading accolades while surrounded by Fonterra middle management at a Rotorua conference." And don't get me started on the strength of Blis's scientific abilities! And did you know that PEB and BLT share a director, so there is cross fertilisation there too? Add to that that Blis is backed by some pretty successful people.

Short version: The plan makes sense to me, although it is ambitious. If you delve into the detail of the last 2 or 3 years, it seems to me the company remains more or less on track, if definitely delayed by events. And I do think they know what they are doing. Hey, that's all just my view though.

This is how BLT operates and it's been going on for so long its normal

What I don't agree with:

1. I understand the bitterness about early years, as apparently expectations were high. But lots of other startups then have taken as long (eg. PEB, ATM) and only a few shareholders have openly admitted that they were just as optimistic as the early management.
2. Shareprice matters? Lots of people seem to think things are going well when the share price goes up, or badly when it goes down (like now). But I can't see the point as little of the company's future rests on the share price, except as it affects capital raising, or widespread public perception, or the possibility of takeover. Just my view though. I understand the other view that the market "always knows".
3. The past dictates that this cannot work. I've explained my view on some of the past above, and IF that is a fair reading, then so far no walls have been built confining Blis's future. In my view, anyway.
4. Boffins, just a bunch of scientists in Dunedin, etc. Actually, only 2 of the 5 Board members have science backgrounds, as I read it. The CEO does too from a long time ago, but has been a manager for a very long time. There is a small science bias, as befits a tech company, but this is not "just a bunch of scientists", as some occasionally like to say or imply. Easy to say for effect, just not true. And anyway, scientists are pretty intelligent people generally. Edison was a hugely successful business man, for instance.
5. Because they have limited resources, it can't work. No, I'd say it will just take time. The web site seems pretty good to me now, for example.

All just my view. For counter arguments to any of the above, read previous posts or new ones undoubtedly coming!

[Harvey Specter]

For those that have always wanted to try Blis:

(get 10% off at www.blis.co.nz using code 'blis10')

Note: I received this by email. I am not associated with the company in any way other than a small shareholder.

[GR8DAY]

Thanks, Croesus (I think!) To explain my optimism, this is the hypothesis I work from here. I do NOT claim to be correct, merely saying what I work from if anyone's interested.

1. New plan, started 2007?, makes sense to me. This has been incredibly difficult to implement, due to the scale of the plan, the limited resources, and a staggeringly hostile legal world for probiotics ever since the plan was launched. Neverthless, it is substantially on track where I'm sitting. I could be wrong, but that's my opinion.
2. The change of distributor, which started in early 2009/10?, was a hugely difficult exercise. It seems to have cost a lot of money and lost revenue, but the company must have felt it was worth it. Certainly the signs are now gathering of good impetus and I'm inclined to think it was a good idea. I suspect the company itself did not realise quite what a long protracted affair it would be, but I imagine they are pleased anyway as they usually like to take the right long term decisions (or so it seems.) In particular, I think many naysayers have not correctly factored in this delay. (I have heard elsewhere that almost all startups change distributors, because the distributors seldom realise how serious their clients are, and that the changeover is always really hard. Nothing new here then?)
3. Accordingly, I have reasonable hopes that revenue will pick up more quickly now that the changeover is complete. Company forecasts so far support that view.
4. Events with the share price a couple of years ago were quite unfortunate for subsequent capital raising, but also great for shareholders who persisted and managed to buy in cheaply afterwards - IF it pays off!
5. Regulations have played merry hell with Blis. It's like the Gods are throwing thunderbolts at Blis for sport. Every time they move, someone decides to "tighten" regulations. This is sheer bad luck. Recent examples have been whatever the problem was shipping to America, and this huge fuss over Chinese dairy exports. To Blis's enormous credit, they have put their chins down on every single one of these and buggered on.
6. GRAS sales promise to be profitable. You can see this by comparing the number of people in health supplement shops with the number in supermarkets. The company has occasionally said that "it's future was in dairy". It's unfortunate that the ice cream wasn't selling at a profit, but it certainly showed that money awaits. They sold twice the revenue in NZ on a new product through ice cream than they did on the NZ pill sales. And the company actually did not declare the exercise a disaster, but said they needed to invest capital to make a profit, and they would prefer doing it in other food types, which we are now seeing. I am pretty convinced that the whole upcoming Asia GRAS business is heavily built on the evidence gained from the ice cream, but I have no proof of that.
7. If GRAS works we're away (I hope!), otherwise whole thing looking more difficult and slow growing. So I'm really interested to see what happens in the coming year. But ingredient sales are growing too, so maybe sunshine around every corner? Who knows.
8. Potential other products are underestimated by some, I believe.
9. The mix of big share holders makes a takeover difficult (I believe), so existing shareholders stand to see the results more than happens with some companies perhaps? I'm no expert though.
10. The team is pretty strong if you ask me. As the Blis site says, "[The CEO's] experience in international marketing and in the management of business operations includes commercialising technology driven businesses within the New Zealand Dairy Board, establishing Tatua Co-Op Dairy Co. as a highly profitable specialist company and in transforming Westland Milk Products from a dairy company marketing commodity products into an International Nutritional Company." I've searched on the Westland side and it's one of the main reasons I see this working. For example, here's a 2003 article, "While [Fonterra chap] was ousted from Fonterra Co-operative Group last week, the dairy industry honoured his two highest-ranking competitors. Tatua chief executive Mike Matthews and Westland's Barry Richardson received the industry's leading accolades while surrounded by Fonterra middle management at a Rotorua conference." And don't get me started on the strength of Blis's scientific abilities! And did you know that PEB and BLT share a director, so there is cross fertilisation there too? Add to that that Blis is backed by some pretty successful people.

Short version: The plan makes sense to me, although it is ambitious. If you delve into the detail of the last 2 or 3 years, it seems to me the company remains more or less on track, if definitely delayed by events. And I do think they know what they are doing. Hey, that's all just my view though.




What I don't agree with:

1. I understand the bitterness about early years, as apparently expectations were high. But lots of other startups then have taken as long (eg. PEB, ATM) and only a few shareholders have openly admitted that they were just as optimistic as the early management.
2. Shareprice matters? Lots of people seem to think things are going well when the share price goes up, or badly when it goes down (like now). But I can't see the point as little of the company's future rests on the share price, except as it affects capital raising, or widespread public perception, or the possibility of takeover. Just my view though. I understand the other view that the market "always knows".
3. The past dictates that this cannot work. I've explained my view on some of the past above, and IF that is a fair reading, then so far no walls have been built confining Blis's future. In my view, anyway.
4. Boffins, just a bunch of scientists in Dunedin, etc. Actually, only 2 of the 5 Board members have science backgrounds, as I read it. The CEO does too from a long time ago, but has been a manager for a very long time. There is a small science bias, as befits a tech company, but this is not "just a bunch of scientists", as some occasionally like to say or imply. Easy to say for effect, just not true. And anyway, scientists are pretty intelligent people generally. Edison was a hugely successful business man, for instance.
5. Because they have limited resources, it can't work. No, I'd say it will just take time. The web site seems pretty good to me now, for example.

All just my view. For counter arguments to any of the above, read previous posts or new ones undoubtedly coming!

......JUST BRILLIANT SIMLA!!....once again many thanks for the effort you put into your research and your willingness to share. I really dont think "MR. Market" has the foggiest notion of whats going on with BLIS at the moment. I see it as highly undervalued and a tripling in price over the next year or two would not surprise me one iota??

[youngatheart]

For those that have always wanted to try Blis:

(get 10% off at www.blis.co.nz using code 'blis10')

Note: I received this by email. I am not associated with the company in any way other than a small shareholder.

Thanks Harvey,
Have ordered the special deal item and will road test it.

[simla]

I see it as highly undervalued

Thanks for your comments, Gr8day. I think the important change I've seen over the last year is that we've finally moved from "Can they implement this plan?" to "Will the plan work?"

That change will be complete when they get permission for the food factory production, and we hope that's definitely on the cards. But, add in the factory, and we now have a distributor they seem comfortable with, access to multiple markets, and access to multiple market segments, widespread legal acceptance on both K12 and M18, GRAS sales under way, plus a number of seemingly supportive business partners. We simply haven't seen that combination before now. Between them, I think they more or less comprise the original plan finally put together.

Will it work? That, at last, is the question we can turn our attention to. Hope so!!

[Mule]

This is good news from their FB page, obviously a sign of increasing website sales... probably a good marketing strategy to get their products out there also. I wonder who are receiving the free products, anyone know? Might fire off an email to Blis and find out.

Blis.png

[simla]

Salvation Army, I presume. Good on them. "The greater the Internet sales are for the Throat Guard range of products, the higher the number of lozenges that can be provided to The Salvation Army for distribution." Oct 2012 https://www.nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/228348

It does sound like good sales growth.

[simla]

"Honeyblis is now available in your local Hardy's Health Store nationwide in New Zealand !" https://twitter.com/Honeyblis/status/449325643671429120

Also, Honeyblis at the Wellington food show, May 9. http://www.foodshow.co.nz/exhibitor/honeyblis.aspx

[simla]

Here's a pretty slick looking competition to win Blis products. Seems to have run last month too, and the link is picked up across a few blogs. New line of attack? All good. https://www.facebook.com/BLISTechnol...43103275748075

Down the bottom, it says "power by woobox", so there's a response to their looking to pick up on existing web penetration. http://woobox.com/