BLT - Blis Technologies

[simla]

Pedigree, mate. BLT has never unexpectedly missed a dividend payment ...

Actually, the correction overseas is so far merely something that has already happened 7 times since 2011 by my rough count, during which the market continued rising overall. Too early to take a trend from it.

[skid]

Im not so sure about that--It was heading down when Yellen made her announcement and it bounced-but the fact its dropped this much the next day is troubling--maybe it will bounce again tonight or stabilize but there are alot of informed chartists who are selling down--I believe alot are feeling a correction is overdue (which may be a good thing over all)
at any rate ,probably a good time to keep one eye on the US for a while (at least if holding shares more affected)
Certainly dont see a reason for BLT holder to panic though.

[simla]

It's certainly interesting times in many ways. The thing is though, if several trillions dollars was sold out of the market, where would it go? The bond market seems to be shrinking world wide, and it's hard to see that much just sitting in a bank account. The NZX very much strikes me as going up from the sheer pressure of kiwisaver, though I could be wrong. Myself, I'm a believer in bi-flation - two different rates of inflation. Every day goods are subject to squeezed incomes. But financial goods are constantly flooded with cash, and quite possibly have simply suffered from huge inflation - which for them means "permanently/long-time" higher PEs and lower interest rates maybe? Having said that, it is hard to see stable times descending on us.

Not saying it won't happen though!

[simla]

To put that another way, people tend to think of world markets as infinite, that there is always somewhere else to run to with their cash. But what if the world economy is actually finite and the ever increasing amounts of cash (QE) just means that people are more and more desperate to buy their bit of that economy, thus inflating the price they are willing to pay for a finite product. The PEs would go up, interest rates would go down permanently. People would discover there was no other game in town, no other place to go.

And what if now is when people discover that for the first time? What if globalisation finally cannibalises even the world share market itself? People would panic and buy into first this market, and then that market, and then back to the first and so on. Tremendous volatility until people realised there was nowhere else to go? Will people presently rushing out of emerging markets have to go back there in a bit, for instance?

Ironically, the only way out would be to increase world GDP. But with everybody squeezing "efficiency" out of everything with machines everywhere (checkout operators for example) wages are not growing, and people will not buy more.

So we may well be on for big volatility at this point. But I have a sneaking suspicion that the end of it will be people realising there is no escaping a low-return investment world, now that the cash supply has massively outgrown the productive capacity of the world economy. Hopefully BLT would prove an attractive investment at that point.


Now obviously there are quite a few counter arguments, such as:

(a) If the people with the assets are the people with the debts then they could liquidate to pay off debt. This should be true of the housing market, but it is not clear it applies to the stock market. Possibly though the mega banks and central banks are in that position.

(b) History suggests that crashes will happen anyway and always. However, to reduce the price if dividends continued to be paid (yes a big if, especially given the distortions of the finance industry across the rest of industry) then the rate of return would increase, and my argument cuts back in again about people with cash chasing finite return.

(c) Nobody knows what share prices really represent. If a handful of people sell, the price goes down unless someone else buys, and the whole market is valued down. So maybe everyone could lose anyway. But this is quite like argument (b). Anyway, Keynes only wrote his idea a while ago and this is the first time we have had a situation like this with loads of printed money. Will it play out differently this time?

(d) Nobody knows if computer balances really are the same as printed money, as that hasn't been tried before either. Anything might happen. People buying physical gold obviously follow this idea.

(e) Essentially my argument sounds suspiciously like "this time it's different", which is dubious. However, in defence of that, this is the first time we are following Keynes big time. Money has been printed under QE, but is there actually a reversal mechanism to "unissue" it, or are we stuck with it permanently now?

(f) Even if this is all true, nevertheless we could have huge volatility, during which some people would win, some people would lose.

Who knows. Just some thoughts. But interesting to think where BLT would sit if it turns out to generate ongoing cash (ie dividends presumably) and if the world is consigned to low returns while the huge QE cash supply has nowhere else to go. That's two big ifs, though.

[simla]

I guess our two points of view could be reconciled depending on the time scale. I tend to be pretty patient and take a longer term view than many I've noticed. Short term could still see a lot of action, sure.

[fungus pudding]

Yes yes Fungus we get that you don't like their ice cream! We hadn't forgotten!!

Guess I wasn't the only one!

[emearg]

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[simla]

Guess I wasn't the only one!

Impressive, FP. Responding a year later! Read this, by any chance? http://www.buzzfeed.com/rachelzarrel...-in-the-making

[simla]

Emearg, that's a great list, thanks. Impressive. A little part of me is daring to think this half's revenue might be heartening.

[fungus pudding]

Impressive, FP. Responding a year later! Read this, by any chance? http://www.buzzfeed.com/rachelzarrel...-in-the-making

No. I hadn't. Just for a laugh I flicked through a few old posts on blis and came across the ice cream days, which I had forgotten about. I watch blis with interest. Your dedication to this company is a credit to you. For that reason, but for no other, I hope they eventually make a dollar or two especially for you.