BLT - Blis Technologies

[emearg]

BLT could be in for significant drop in share price if no new buyers enter the market. A lot of downside pressure on the orderbook.

For traders of Blis stock this could be a worry. For long term holders who are comfortable with where Blis is going it shouldn't be too much of a concern. Short term volatility is pretty normal with thinly traded penny dreadful shares.

Perhaps it can be seen as a buying opportunity?

Any one nervous about short term volatility should buy a nice stable share like Telecom </cough>

[emearg]

Meanwhile, another product for you guys to buy. True Defense For Kids TM. It seems to be a slightly different product format, so that's a development. Adult version in March. http://www.truebotanica.com/store/pr...seforKids.aspx

I'm a little old, but might consider the Adult version...

The website is excellent. Lots of interesting information for readers.

What interested me the most is in the FAQ and follows:
What foods can I mix TD with?
TD can be mixed into a small amount of water; milk; soy milk; yoghurt and other dairy products.

All things considered it seems probable they have tested the efficacy of mixing the powder with the above substances and must received a tick.

[emearg]

Updated product list...

K12:
Natures Plus - Adult's Ear, Nose & Throat Lozenges with K12 Probiotics -- Tropical Cherry
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...54&category=28

Natures Plus - Animal Parade® Children's Chewable Inner Ear Support
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...49&category=12

Swanson - Ultra Oral Probiotic
http://www.swansonvitamins.com/SWU519/ItemDetail?n=0

Imagenetix - Bioguard
http://bioguardhealth.com/

Solaray - Oral Flora
http://www.smartbomb.com/slr12698.html

VegLife - Ear, Nose & Throat Shield
http://www.vitaminlife.com/product-e...+Throat+Shield

LEF - Advanced Oral Hygiene
http://search.lef.org/cgi-src-bin/Ms...k12&hiword=k12

Biogenesis - Pro Flora Oral Health Chewables
http://www.bio-genesis.com/productpa...al-health.html

Epoca
http://www.takachanmarket.com/produc...oduct_id=17325

Ear, Nose & Throat Defense
http://drsinatra.net/Products2.aspx?ProductID=BL12

True Botanicas - True Defense for Kids™
http://www.truebotanica.com/store/pr...seforKids.aspx

KForce

Aktiv-k12

Blis Throat Guard Daily
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BL...at-Guard-Daily

Blis Throat Guard Boost
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BL...at-Guard-Boost

Blis Travel Guard
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BL...p=Travel-Guard

Blis Bio Restore
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BL...&p=Bio-Restore

Blis Fresh Breath Kit
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BL...esh-Breath-Kit

Blis Rapid Eze Gargle
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BL...pid-EZE-Gargle


M18:
Natures Plus - Animal Parade® Tooth Fairy™ Children’s Chewable Dental Probiotic
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...48&category=12

Natures Plus - Adult’s Dental Care Probiotic Lozenges - Peppermint
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...83&category=22


Include K12 and/or M18:
Natures Plus - Whole Food Total Body Cleanse with Açai (Vegetarian Capsules)
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...uctNumber=1120

Natures Plus Ultra Lipoic™ Bi-Layered Mini-Tabs & Tablets
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...24&category=29
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...20&category=29

Natures Plus Ultra Probiotics Vegetarian Capsules
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...uctNumber=4385

Hopefully around the 10th of next month I will be able to added the CulturedCare gum to the list.

[simla]

Thanks for putting in all the links, Emearg. Really good idea.

The LEF one doesn't seem to work for me, perhaps instead: http://www.lef.org/Vitamins-Suppleme...l-Hygiene.html

I must say that it is pretty impressive when you load them all up in tabs and then flip through them. And not only that, but think of all the negotiating and manufacturing work that had to happen for each and every one of them. And marketing work.

[emearg]

Thanks Simla, I have updated my list here so next time it will be updated.

Frutarom have been very busy selling the ingredient, and no doubt Blis have been busy supporting it.

If you have looked at the very long manufacturers list on VitaminLife.com you get an idea of how many manufacturers/brands may one day include K12 and/or M18. That said, we know they are focusing on the 50 biggest, but I am sure they will be receptive to the smaller players as well.

Anybody fancy taking a stab at the 2nd half sales revenue?

[brucea]

Thanks Emearg for the great work you have done with your lists .... however by the time I end up buying all the new overseas products containing K12 I will need to sell my Blis shares to pay for them ..... seriously though I am a long term holder of Blis shares and agree the recent volatility could represent an opportunity to top up ..... and as for Telecom shares ...(boring, boring)

[simla]

Anybody fancy taking a stab at the 2nd half sales revenue?

Sorry, Emearg. The range of possible answers just gets wider and wider. All the news is promising though.

[Cannibal]

C'mon Simla - you can do better than that. How about a range and the reasoning behind it please?

I think that it is a given that the numbers will be good - the only question is how good? The last numbers were based on a very limited product range and nascent distribution channels and the managed to break even. Now they have an extensive product range and a massive number of mature distribution partners pretty much worldwide.

[emearg]

Here is an article titled 'Mom's Gingivitis Leads to Baby's Death':
http://www.momlogic.com/2010/01/moms...abys_death.php

I recently mentioned that Prof Tagg is doing a study on the use of K12 in pregnant women at the later stages of pregnancy. It seems to me that using K12 and M18 for the entire pregnancy would be advantageous for pregnant women to avoid Gingivitis and other oral health issues.

I wonder if we will see a product released focussing on this potential benefit in their marketing?

Mothers-to-be who may not be very interested in taking probiotics for their own health may be far more willing to take them if is about the health of their unborn babies.

[simla]

Here's why I think there is little point in speculating. Consider the following range of complete guesses that may or may not seem reasonable:

1. Costco, sitting in high footcount stores ready for customers to grab:

50 stores sell 20 bottles a day for 180 days, BLT gets $1 a bottle = $180k
50 stores sell 50 bottles a day for 180 days, BLT gets $2.50 a bottle = $1.2m
50 stores sell 100 bottles a day for 180 days, BLT gets $2.50 a bottle = $2.3m
Other 250 stores sell 50 a day for 90 days, BLT gets $3 a bottle = $3.4m

2. Other products sitting in lower volume stores presumably, or internet:

12 products sell 20 a day each, BLT gets $1.50 a bottle for 180 days = $65k
12 products sell 150 a day for 180 days, BLT get $3 = $970k
5 products sell 400 a day, 7 sell 30 a day for 180 days, BLT gets $2 = $800k
12 products sell 200 a day, BLT gets $3 for 180 days = $1.3m

3. Japan

No information available at all, but it is on several serious websites, actual shops unknown. But being near people is a fact of life in Japan and people are very hygiene conscious:

Worst case maybe $100k?
Best case maybe $600k?

4. Sales of M18 or K12 to set up new products we have yet to hear of maybe: $0k-$400k?

5. Research revenue: $300k?

6. NZ & other : $100k to $400k?

Range therefore: maybe, $745k - $8.3m! These figures are NOT my forecasts, but just examples of how modelling assumptions really leads nowhere at present as we have no norms to measure against. Great to dream of big numbers though.

As I say, pointless speculation as we have absolutely no data to work from. The above is nothing but guesswork of random possibilities. Blis is expanding in products, but we have no information what any given brand is capable of.

We can surely assume two things though: Costco won't waste high customer count on products that don't sell; and companies aren't going to go to the trouble of manufacturing products that they only expect to sell 365 of a year (i.e one bottle a day).

Corrections to maths etc welcome as always. I wouldn't rely on these guesses if I was you!