BLT - Blis Technologies

[Bobby_Fischer]

At the most optimistic it has to be seen as a qualified success Simla. Pessimistically it is a set-back. Why do I say that? Because BLIS were hoping for more as stated in the half-year announcement:

The plan for BLIS K12 BioGuard is to
complete a 50 store sales trial in the Pacific Northwest of the US. Subject
to a successful outcome, they will roll out the BLIS K12 BioGuard across all
403 US based stores >in early 2010<.

[emearg]

I don't understand how this can be seen as good news?

Just because a blogger told us the trial was successful why should we believe it?

The plan was for the product to be rolled out nationwide if it was successful. That isn't happening for at least six months. It may never go nationwide?

I infer from what little we know (or think we know) so far that the product didn't sell well enough during the peak winter season to justify taking up valuable shelf space during the quieter summer season.

That they are also trying to sell to other chains isn't exactly good news either. I am sure they have been trying to do that since day dot. Why wouldn't they? They haven't been successful, and considering the change of seasons it is unlikely they will until at least next winter. Even if they do, actual sales will be insignificant until next winter.

All is all this is bad news.

It may be why the share price dropped so significantly today? A big holder got scared and turned their holding into $60.45 worth of cold hard cash?!!!

[simla]

I agree you could read this in many ways. But I still think it sounds fine. Perhaps you guys are worrying about that wonderful old cartoon, of a dirty old man writing to the soap company, "Your soap was so good the first time that I have used none other since." I don't think that is a justified reading here.

For a start, we understand the blogger has a connection with the company, so she would be unlikely to declare the trial was deemed a success without foundation. Further, we are told the product will remain on the website anyway, and will reappear next flu season. All of that is consistent with Costco being happy.

The nationwide rollout in early 2010 is indeed a question in the air, but has been for a while. On the other hand, we appear to have detected that it did indeed spread to other stores, so there was evidently some sort of rollout. Further, we might reasonably assume that the withdrawal at the end of winter on exactly the last Friday in March was a planned move, and not a response to sales levels. So, one fair reading of this surely is that the rollout got the go-ahead, but only proceeded on a limited basis in the time available. If so, then isn't logistical constraint the more likely problem? That could be a range of things, from busy factory(s) to snow blocking roads across the continent, to Costco being too busy to look at this product in time.

For this to be bad news really requires that the product did not sell well, doesn't it? But the information does not seem consistent with that, does it? They have not withdrawn the product early as far as we can tell, whereas they do seem to have extended it to other stores, and to have confirmed it will remain on the website and come back next winter.

We do not know how much weight to give to the Walmart and Walgreens comment, but presumably it would not have been made with no substance at all. We know Imagenetix sell into Walgreens already. Further, it would be consistent with Costco having exclusive access for a certain period, which is consistent with other developments with Blis. Indeed, hoping to sell into Walmart might be read as implying they have good sales data to make a case with.

I think the testing part of the announcement is that it will be largely withdrawn over the summer. However, the product is indeed pitched at colds and flu, so that is understandable. As I say, I have imagined that Blis intend to push other products over the northern summer, such as M18 and other product formats. They will have this seasonal problem every year, so presumably have long since thought on solutions.

Yes, this information is ambiguous, as third-party Blis information always seems to be. We'll presumably find out more in a few weeks.

[simla]

I would point out that this information states that Bioguard has gone through a trial and is now evidently awarded a long term position in a huge US chain store, with very extensive mail-order support. If correct, that is a very satisfactory development surely.

[simla]

As to the share price, it is no secret that the market is pretty jumpy world wide. There may be short term bumps, and each has to decide if the growth potential exceeds any likely bumps in the world. We faced a pretty tough situation in mid to late 2008, and those of us who stayed the course are presumably happy so far. In fact, I came across a post then describing the share as a dog, but nevertheless kindly pointing out for the eternally hopeful that Frutarom had been signed up. That worked out pretty well. So far, Blis has always required us to hope that developments will pay off in time. We hope that this set of results may finally make that more concrete. It sure would be nice to finally cross the finishing line.

[emearg]

For a start, we understand the blogger has a connection with the company, so she would be unlikely to declare the trial was deemed a success without foundation.

She has an association with the makers of BioGuard not Costco. They will have different criteria for what constitutes success.

Further, we are told the product will remain on the website anyway, and will reappear next flu season. All of that is consistent with Costco being happy.

If I was to be terribly optimistic sure then I would say Costco aren't unhappy.

The nationwide rollout in early 2010 is indeed a question in the air, but has been for a while. On the other hand, we appear to have detected that it did indeed spread to other stores, so there was evidently some sort of rollout. Further, we might reasonably assume that the withdrawal at the end of winter on exactly the last Friday in March was a planned move, and not a response to sales levels. So, one fair reading of this surely is that the rollout got the go-ahead, but only proceeded on a limited basis in the time available. If so, then isn't logistical constraint the more likely problem? That could be a range of things, from busy factory(s) to snow blocking roads across the continent, to Costco being too busy to look at this product in time.

Wouldn't Blis have been aware of this? Based on their communications they weren't and yet they were working closely with them to make sure they were happy. Everything we have learn't so far indicates this wasn't planned.

Yes, this information is ambiguous, as third-party Blis information always seems to be. We'll presumably find out more in a few weeks.

I agree. Some clarity around this issue would be excellent.

[emearg]

As to the share price, it is no secret that the market is pretty jumpy world wide. There may be short term bumps, and each has to decide if the growth potential exceeds any likely bumps in the world. We faced a pretty tough situation in mid to late 2008, and those of us who stayed the course are presumably happy so far. In fact, I came across a post then describing the share as a dog, but nevertheless kindly pointing out for the eternally hopeful that Frutarom had been signed up. That worked out pretty well. So far, Blis has always required us to hope that developments will pay off in time. We hope that this set of results may finally make that more concrete. It sure would be nice to finally cross the finishing line.

My comment yesterday was meant to be vaguely amusing. I won't be in too much of a panic when the price drops on less than a hundred bucks worth of trading!

Blis, thanks to Frutarom, which is of course a credit to Blis (Barry) is doing well and growing adequately. But the BioGuard/Costco is a step backwards any way you look at it (rose tinted glasses aside)

The result in May will please the market. There may even be a small profit. The share price will increase. I have no doubts about these three points.

Sorry to be raining on all the positivity...

[simla]

Well, that nice chap has asked Jessica a pretty good question about the rollout, so that might help. As he seems in tune with our own enquiries, perhaps we'll be lucky and he'll also ask how real the Walmart and Walgreens openings are? He's bound to ask whether the product was popular anyway.

I still don't think we have to get too worried here. Remember that Blis is not advertised by anyone in NZ over summer either. And nobody is discussing the logistics of factory production. There are a lot of Blis products on the market now. We shareholders just want it to all roll out, but the company itself will obviously maximise utility if it can schedule large orders at offset times.

[simla]

We don't often disagree on the meaning of information, Emearg. To clarify where I'm coming from: I'm not too worried about it disappearing over summer, because I don't believe people buy many cough drops etc over summer anyway.

The question for me is what this implies about sales over the winter. It will have been in stock for six months anyway (Oct-Mar). On the positive side: (1) Costco are apparently keeping it on, and (2) possibly the sales data is good enough to approach other outlets with. On the negative side: well, there's where I can't quite see the problem.

This event does not seem to me to imply that sales were poor. Neither does it imply that sales were good. It just seems like neutral information as far as sales goes, and we'll have to see what news we hear later. BLT sales are not generally broken down in great detail for us, so we may never know exactly how this went anyway.

Putting sales aside, as neutral information, this seems like it contains good news. It stays on at Costco, and there is room to think the other outlets are possible. The nationwide rollout remains a question, but I don't see it as disappointing that a product that did not even exist a few months ago has not rocked the nation in one winter. That Redchip snip on Imagenetix a while ago http://www.redchip.com/visibility/in...sp?symbol=IAGX said, "IAGX is on track to expand its distribution of Celadrin to Costco from 200 to 400 warehouse stores nationwide". Well you have to double 50 twice before you even get to 200. It's a big ask to expect a nationwide rollout from scratch in a few months?

So that's why I see it as positive. I see it as neutral for sales information, and positive otherwise. That said, I totally accept that this information might be read many ways. Anyway, not trying to argue, just clarifying why I don't think it's just my sheer optimism talking here!

[brucea]

Simla has a good point saying "I don't see it as disappointing that a product that did not even exist a few months ago has not rocked the nation in one winter". Many people are sceptical about new products and their claims - I think I wrote before how long it took St John's Wort to catch on with the general public, even though it was was a top seller in Germany. It took me a while for Blis K12 NZ products to win me over, but I now use it regularly - not just in the winter months, as I believe it has improved my health (and for the doubting Thomas's this was before I bought Blis shares). I think the number of products that are appearing with K12 or M8 in them is a sign that Blis has a significant future. The recent volatility is of little significance given the very low number of shares traded (was it just 650 on one day?). This suggests most shareholders are holding on....