BLT - Blis Technologies

[simla]

Hardly nowhere, FP. Revenue for 6 month to Sept 09 was $1m, compared to $329,000 a year before. Sept 08 was definitely a low point for Blis, with the old strategy bearing slim returns by then, but the growth since is from the new strategy.

The full year will be valuable info on whether that growth has been built on. If revenue for this half is less than that $1m - depending on the explanation, of course - then I guess I'll have to tone down my optimism. If it's over $2m, on the other hand, I'll have to up the pace.

Good to see CulturedCare getting wide coverage.

[fungus pudding]

Hardly nowhere, FP. Revenue for 6 month to Sept 09 was $1m, compared to $329,000 a year before. Sept 08 was definitely a low point for Blis, with the old strategy bearing slim returns by then, but the growth since is from the new strategy.

The full year will be valuable info on whether that growth has been built on. If revenue for this half is less than that $1m - depending on the explanation, of course - then I guess I'll have to tone down my optimism. If it's over $2m, on the other hand, I'll have to up the pace.

That's just the point. I don't want to knock anyone's enthusiasm but as I've mentioned before, those figures sound more like the corner dairy.

[emearg]

That's just the point. I don't want to knock anyone's enthusiasm but as I've mentioned before, those figures sound more like the corner dairy.

Have you actually seen revenue figures for a corner dairy? Do you really think turn over is two million a year? I would be very surprised if it is more than half a million a year.

I don't know for sure (which is why I am interested to know if you do know for sure) but I base my challenge to your point on two things:
1) 15 years ago I worked at Woolworths Karori in Wellington. It was and still is the biggest supermarket in Karori and caters to a very large suburb and several surrounding suburbs. A busy week was $200k in turn over. Big shop, dozens of staff. So it would take five weeks to do a million. That was 10 million in turnover a year. Obviously inflation makes a difference but you probably see why I have my doubts.
2) I was looking in the Property Press recently and they had a number of business for sale. One was a large (floor space) Asian foods supplier with multiple staff. Their turn over was about $450k p/a. Perhaps that is why they are selling? What I did think at the time was how small the turnover was for the size of the shop, it's location and the number of people working there. There were several other businesses for sale where I looked at the details and was surprised by how small the turnover was. I kinda wondered why anybody would bother?

You being right or me being right doesn't really matter but the whole thing is pretty interesting in my opinion. Maybe I need to get out more?

What is also interesting is that Blis sold approximately half a million bucks worth of bagged bacteria. While the turnover is small compared to many other listed businesses it is significant progress for this little company...

[emearg]

I'm not quite sure how to explain that clearly, Emearg. You've probably noticed that I usually respond to things I'm not so happy about by not referring to them a lot. But I don't say positive things about things I'm not actually positive about.

My basic excitement about BLT has always been the maths. Applying that to the Bioguard situation, several points stand out.

Firstly, Blis is out there making pretty good progress on a large number of fronts now, so Bioguard is not a make or break situation, although we hope it will be a very useful result. Even as I sit here, the local chemist handout has an ad for Blis reading, "Need a throat lozenge that really works?". Over at CulturedCare there's a twitter from someone saying they had 5 pieces today because it tasted so great. Nature's Plus have just brought out even more products recently. Japan is open etc. Type in "+Blis K12" on Google and get heaps of real results. All we actually need from Bioguard, and all the other products, is for many of them to be at least okay. Well, Bioguard DOES seem to have at least joined the "at least okay" group with this news. No?

Secondly, I wasn't especially expecting a full nationwide rollout in a hurry, only good progress, which we probably got. To supply Costco nationwide would involve catering to the equivalent of 75 New Zealands in a very short timespan! What I definitely wanted to hear was that Costco did not reject the trial - which we have apparently heard - and that some progress was being made in expansion - which, again, we seem to have detected ourselves. Yes, I hadn't picked it would go off the shelves over summer, but neither was I expecting much in the way of sales over summer of a product specifically marketed for winter ailments. So, that wasn't a positive development from my point of view, but neither would I particularly expect it to change Bioguard annual sales by more than perhaps 20% or so, perhaps. Bioguard is apparently currently on sale in Oregon 3.5m, Washington 6.5m, Alaska .7m, Montana 1m, Utah 2.7m, Idaho 1.5m = 16m people. Could they really have added just 3 more states quickly, California 40m, Illinois 13m, or NY 20m? Yes, it would be great, but I wasn't relying on it. So, they do appear to have successfully opened in a fairly large market for the long term with this news, and shown some progress in expanding to more markets. No?

Thirdly, and most importantly, I have always seen the maths of Blis requiring some form of exponential growth. Einstein is said to have described compound interest as the most powerful force in the universe. It is far more important to me that the compounding is happening than whether it is fast or slow. Slow compounding will still produce vastly greater results than no compounding. So I attach far more importance to the yes/no idea that the product will be in the market long term, where is can grow market size, than to whether it is compounding fast enough just now. Well, this news is that Costco will apparently stock it long term. No?

And fourthly, as I have said, I do not see that we can really interpret this as telling us how sales have gone. If they were going badly, Costco would simply have dropped the product, which we are told they are not doing. So the more likely interpretation of this news is that sales are either so-so or good, either of which is fine considering the size of that market. No?

So I am okay with this news because I judge it mathematically. The stand-out news to me was that Bioguard seems to have successfully got itself aboard a large, compounding escalator, and to me that stands head and shoulders above whether early results are 50% better than might have been expected at this stage - which, for all we know, they might have been anyway.

Emearg, I can't promise you that BLT is blasting off without a hitch, because neither you nor I know that. But I can tell you I am not trying to see everything with rose coloured glasses. If the news had been that Costco was going to dump the product, I would certainly have been concerned at what that implied. As it is, this seems a perfectly satisfactory position.

All I hope is that Costco do bring BioGuard back, and ideally to many many more stores. JessicaRabbit saying they will isn't enough reassurance for me! Time, or an announcement from Blis will tell...

[fungus pudding]

[QUOTE=emearg;296295]Have you actually seen revenue figures for a corner dairy? Do you really think turn over is two million a year? I would be very surprised if it is more than half a million a year.
QUOTE]


I didn't expect the figure to be taken so literally. Suffice to say there are small dairies that do turn over a million plus, althought there are plenty in the 500 - 750k bracket. Any less is barely survival level. No supermarket 'with dozens of staff' would survive on 10 million per annum these days.

[emearg]

I note Blis has joined Twitter.

http://twitter.com/BlisTech

[weasel]

I note Blis has joined Twitter.

http://twitter.com/BlisTech

Well someone has, but not necessarily connected to the company. The lack of indefinite articles and generally poor grammar makes it seem pretty unprofessional IMHO.

[simla]

In Korea, here's an ad, closing Monday, for a sales/marketing person to work with Blis for a Korean firm. That would suggest South Korea (pop 50m) has definitely got approval now for K12?
http://translate.google.com/translat...id%253D1088682

That interview with GWS http://www.moosylvania.com/blog/file...ason+quote.pdf said that Korea had a distribution agreement for Throat Guard (at least, presumably), so initial sales may flow fairly quickly from Korea now. There may even be a small initial order in this half year. Still local marketing to be done though, of course, and time to build a market.

[emearg]

Meanwhile, another product for you guys to buy. True Defense For Kids TM. It seems to be a slightly different product format, so that's a development. Adult version in March. http://www.truebotanica.com/store/pr...seforKids.aspx

Here is the second product for big people:
http://www.mytruedefense.com/index.htm

I note the label is incorrect. I have emailed them letting them know.

[Cannibal]

Nice finds again chaps. Thanks.
Not sure what the typo is - the hyphen?
This is a powerful comparison that would get my attention - http://www.mytruedefense.com/product-comparison.htm
Canada seems really keen on the new gum:

- I heard that Nira Arora was talking about CulturedCare Probiotic Gum on Vancouver's The Beat 94.5 this AM! Did you hear it?

and

- The Vancouver Sun story on CulturedCare Probiotic Gum is spreading like wildfire. At last count the following newspapers have printed the story...

Montreal Gazette
The Record, Sherbrooke, Quebec
Canwest News Service
The Daily News, Nanaimo
Edmonton Journal
Calgary Herald
Leader Post, Regina
Saskatoon Star Phoenix
Windsor Star
National Post
Vancouver Sun

And I sent this off to FaceBook -
March 9 at 4:49pm
Hi
I am curious as to how customers have reacted to the new probiotic gum. Is it rushing off the shelves or...

Cheers






Stuart HellisMarch 10 at 2:20am Report
The supplier has been rushed off their feet yesterday.