BLT - Blis Technologies

[simla]

Here's a thought.

We were so busy being surprised that sales didn't seem to go up much over the US winter, that maybe we didn't notice the really big point: sales didn't seem to go up much over the US winter!

All our expectations for a big jump in sales over the US winter were built on the fact that that had happened in NZ. But wait. In NZ, it is more or less accepted that Blis helps prevent colds and coughs - as witnessed by how much stronger winter sales are than summer sales.

But in the US, aren't all the Blis products' sales messages instead aimed at the "fortifies the immune system" message? Rather like "with added Vitamin C"? So there is little seasonal message in that? The flip side has been that US sales have grown consistently, regardless of season.

Perhaps this difference is a choice based on the US law ("This statement has not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. This product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure or prevent any disease."), or maybe it is a culture-appropriate thing.

Compare that to the CulturedCare message - in Canada, not the US. "Is BLIS K12 Probiotic Gum a natural remedy for cold and flu? ... The short answer is 'yes.'" http://culturedcare.com/2010/06/09/o...-cold-and-flu/

An interesting couple of exceptions to this in the US both relate to Bioguard. Although the Bioguard blurb on Costco still pushes the fortifying message ("natural defense against immune imbalance" http://www.costco.com/Browse/Product...rodid=11496779 ), yet the Bioguard TV ad pushes "defence" very clearly ("defend yourself this season".) And likewise, the latest CostcoConnection magazine discussed "allergy and cold defense" but did not mention probiotics in the article http://www.costcoconnection.com/connection/201006#pg84 Yet we are told that Costco or Imagenetix have put Bioguard into the flu category http://bioguardinfo.blogspot.com/201...ast-month.html

I sort of said this in my post on fractals, where I noted how differently the different markets were moving. Since when I've been wondering more specifically why. Is this a possible answer?

The company must obviously be aware of this choice between two target markets (plus the breath market of course). They must have considered (a) which one pays off in the short term (b) which one pays off in the long term (c) which one is easier/cheaper to run with (d) should there be different messages in different countries and product formats. In this group we are more inclined to see the anti-cold message as a plus. But a food additive would presumably have a better long term future as an all-year-round immune-boosting ingredient.

This is just a possible interpretation of things of course. If there is any truth to it, though, it changes how this thing might play out next. Plus it maintains the usual pleasurable aspect of Blis watching - like watching a very intelligent game of chess being played out.

Just another bash at a possible interpretation of publicly available facts. As always, I'm never advising anyone to buy, sell, or trade BLT shares, just discussing possible interpretations of facts. In any event, the focus for shareholders at this stage is definitely on how the product is being received in the market place, regardless of whether this particular possible interpretation is any sort of helpful view of the situation.

[Cannibal]

A bit of light relief...

BLT has God on its side now - sales will soar...

http://therempels4.blogspot.com/2010...um-review.html

[Cannibal]

Old news for followers of this thread but good to get some local publicity -

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=10652667

http://www.odt.co.nz/campus/universi...t039s-all-kiss

[simla]

Thanks for those links.

I bought some Blis at the chemist yesterday.

Assistant 1 (25 ish) : Yes, that reminds me I should get some more for myself.

Assistant 2 (50 ish) : My son has had a sore throat for 2 days, and this hasn't fixed it.

Assistant 1 : Are you using the pills? You should take this (reaching for Rapideze Gargyle). It's SO amazing ...

I left them to it, still talking about it. Blis seems to be building its reputation here.

[Oman]

So once again I'll ask the same question. Why isn't it selling?

It is selling of course but the profit margin seems to be far lower than some had hoped. The strategy seems to be to increase the volume of sales and in the background we know the toothpaste and yoghurt developments are progressing ...and maybe other projects we don't know about.

On another point, my wife visited an ENT specialist in Bangkok yesterday and he knew about K12 and said it was good but cold-pressed coconut oil is just as good and will also restore a beneficial bacterial equilibrium in the ENT area ...and you can also cook with it which you can't do with K12.

So part of the answer to the low BLT sales/profit may be that medical specialist know alternatives to K12. In our case the ENT specialist recommended my wife should buy cold pressed coconut oil ...to be held in the mouth (and swilled around in the mouth from time to time) for 20 minutes before expelling.

K12 is a lot easier to take than that, but coconut oil is cheaper than K12 ...and it also makes a quieter home environment which K12 can't do!

[simla]

I'm sure there's something in that, Oman. There are alternatives of one sort or another. You'd have to say that K12 has an awful lot of scientific testing though, as well as regulatory approvals, which presumably counts for uptake by other manufacturers and their advertising budgets. There seem to be one or two oral probiotics on the market now too, as the last Blis report said.

However, at this stage I think we would surely have to take the major influence on sales to be that few consumers have yet heard of K12 due to the small budget for marketing so far?

Interesting that your Thai ENT chap knew about K12, as I can't see any evidence on the net that it is available in Thailand yet.

Also interesting is your idea they may have lowered the price to go for volume. I've definitely wondered about that.

My current position is that all our logic of last year remains quite reasonable, and therefore will come true at some point, we just don't know what the timing is. It still seems logical that it will pay off soon, but we must wait to see.

Possible reasons for why the sales are not yet booming might include: (1) US ads haven't aimed at the seasonal market (2) Fractally, some products/manufacturers will be selling a lot better than others (3) Times are pretty tough overseas (4) They may have lowered the price for volume (5) Marketing can only expand in step with income, and so takes time. Yes, there is a possibility of this not being a popular product in the end, but I think it is way too early to be wondering that - surely that can only be concluded after hefty marketing, which is nothing like the current situation.

Positive points remain the same: this company is successfully implementing a very positive expansion plan. They have a lot of keen partners. There is definitely a market out there for this sort of thing. They have even better plans for the future in progress now as well. There are a lot of Blis products in the market, which must gain momentum. They are near an operating profit now, and have good cash in hand. They are available in several countries now, with large collective population. Costco are thought to be going nationwide with it. Nestle is expected to adopt it soon, if the trial is successful. Food additives seem close. Gum seems to be popular. And we think yogurt and toothpaste are being looked at.

It's a very positive list and it must come to something pretty good before too much longer surely.

By the way, this appears to be the Malaysian product. It makes no mention of Blis, K12, salivarius, or oral probiotic! But it appears to match the tiny photo in the BLT report. http://www.lifeshop2u.com/en/product/hf_17.php

[winner69]

Where's tracker these days?

Gone back to the BLT finance dept and keeping a low profile until the next announcement - mind he did a great investor relations job at the half year.

Should ask him how things have gone since?

[Oman]

3 thoughts to share with others. One is that Barry mentioned a while back that the 3-year plan is going okay and there was some discussion on this thread about what that plan was. I assumed at the time that it was the business plan that would have been presented to Tony Offen before he invested his $3m 'white knight' contribution.

I also assume that the preferential dividend will cease after 3 years (2 years now) but that the converted prefs will draw a similar dividend so investors will get continuity of income after conversion. That assumes that BLT is generating sufficient income in two years time ...but Tony wouldn't have placed his bet money, and the $1m top up, unless the odds were firmly stacked in his favour! So we can speculate about sales etc but for me the assumed 3-year business plan is a strong reason to hang in for another 2 years at least. These players have all the insider information that we have to glean wherever we can.

Secondly I hadn't really noticed the importance of Frutarom as the key player in the K12 rollout overseas ...with the exception of China I think, almost all BLT sales overseas depend on Jack Kline and Frutarom.

The last point is that the annual report mentions that Phamabroker is deliberately focused on phamaceutical outlets to build K12 product credibility. The fact that it is even mentioned in the report indicates to me that someone in BLT reads this Sharetrader thread and decided to politely tell us the reason why we can't buy and retail BLIS products at a corner dairy shop.

[brucea]

Hey guys - you might want to watch TV3 this Tue 6 July at 8pm "Whats in our.." where Petra Bagust "delves into the controversy about fluoride, finds out what makes teeth yellow and how to stop bad breath etc" I saw the trailer tonight and she was interviewing John Tagg

[simla]

It will be interesting to see the show on TV3, Brucea. Thanks. We haven't seen Blis on NZ TV for a long time, have we?

Oman, you suggest having a seat at the board table would help feel safe about where things are going. I'm sure it does, but still none of us knows the future until we get there. As usual, Blis investors are going to earn their result by sitting it out over uncertainty.

News from NZ and markets around the world would obviously test many investors' nerves.

Yet on the other hand, Blis itself continues to show much signs of life.

The article "How mum's kiss can protect newborns from infections" gets 4890 results on Google, and I've also seen it show up in other languages. It seems to have gone a little viral.

"Culturedcare gum" now gets 4970 results, and the culturedcare website shows it is available at a lot of retailers. This, too, seems to have caught some sort of wave.

"Now oralbiotic" already returns 370 results.

Plus the usual "what's next" questions that are always in the air with Blis.

As always, Blis investors have to use a lot of judgement.