BLT - Blis Technologies

[Oman]

Impatient, is it you snapping up BLT at 4.1 cps? Very sensible too! If I had any money I'd do the same.

[Impatient]

Impatient, is it you snapping up BLT at 4.1 cps? Very sensible too! If I had any money I'd do the same.

Mate, I wouldn't be snapping them up if they were 1c each. Sorry guys, still havent hit the happy pills like Simla; his constant speculation about what's probably 'just around the corner' in terms of mega-profits could have almost made me change my name from Impatient to Irate - now I just think what the heck, my money invested in Blis is a write-off and I wont lose more sleep over it. Good luck guys. Hope I stand corrected one day (Simla, I know you'll say so...so spare me)

[simla]

Fair enough, Impatient. Good to hear from you again. I'll try to contain myself! Seriously, though, it's good that you take the other side, as this wouldn't be a discussion otherwise, which is sort of the point, isn't it? Anyway, it's more lively when you're here, so don't abandon us.

I should mention that I have had Blis shares for years, and have followed these posts, but made no posts as I was not seeing anything imminent happening. I have only started posting over the last year when it seemed to me that something significant was finally happening.

[simla]

Impatient, would it help if I told you of things I am not so optimistic of? Blis I think is doing well, but I am way more gloomy on the world economy than most people. Japan, with 18 years of gloom, seems a fair comparison of where we might be going. Unemployment hasn't even begun to bite around the world, nor have downstream company collapses. When these take off, they will likely feed a vicious circle, leading to ever more unemployment and company collapses. And hundreds of billions of dollars losses by the banks seem nothing to the hundreds of trillions of derivatives said to exist, which would dictate many years of restrained credit while surviving balance sheets suck in all the cash they can. House prices in the west surely will continue to sink as company and individual wealth shrinks, sucking trillions of dollars from the world's reserves, and I cannot see why that should stop for quite some time yet - sinking well over 30% in my view, perhaps even 50%. Meanwhile, poverty will grow, no doubt starvation too, and disease will expand, and therefore death rates. Given the shortages of water and oil (and money in the meantime), it seems very possible that any extended period of world gloom will express itself in war, probably in increased war in Africa, and very possibly war and rebellion in the broader middle east area, and perhaps in government overthrow in some places. None of this is guaranteed of course.

Gloomy enough for you? I haven't mentioned this stuff here, as the forum is Blis. I mention it now so that you may form a better opinion of whether I am just on happy pills, or whether I am simply relating logic as I see it. For Blis, I have consistently described the reasoning behind my views on Blis, so people can decide for themselves whether it is logical. For the gloomy views above, I have again outlined the reasons for my view if you look. In all cases, I try to take the known facts and draw conclusions from them. I put them up for discussion, not to browbeat people. I like to learn from what others think.

You may easily conclude that I take extreme views, and no doubt some of you have already concluded that. I do not claim to have any secret view of the future, but I do try to relate the facts I am reacting to, and then describe possible conclusions. I welcome disagreement, but I reserve the right to question the facts and logic behind that disagreement, as I respect others having the right to question my views.

As for Blis, and despite this gloomy view of the world's economic future, I see a whole lot of light shining out from under the bushel in the coming report, then I see the first carriage of the gravy train being in the station in six months time, with at least a small profit in either the second half or the entire year. I have explained in previous posts why I see this, but also I have explained why I believe Barry does not exaggerate, and he has said in the ODT that this is "big" and this "really sets us up", that there will be "significant" increase in sales over the next few months. I tend to believe him.

[Oman]

Thanks Impatient. I can understand your feelings. I guess many of us have lost money on BLT and could well feel the same way.

Simla's view also has merit. The company has improved under Barry and the strategic direction is clearer. It's also true that BLT traditionally understates achievements. The next report financial statement will help us see what's happening.

For people who are positive about BLT this is a good time to either buy in or reduce their average price, and the less positive can do as as you say and just forget them for now. I've got a shoebox of 'forgotten' share scripts ...all 'high fliers' and now totally worthless.

[simla]

"A good time to buy in", Oman. Alas, are we not human though. I have indeed bought a bit more on this basis, but even my persistent optimism has not given me the courage to go in boots and all in the face of a universal falling market. Nevertheless, nearly two million Blis shares have changed hands in the last month. That is relatively very little selling out in such extraordinary times, but a surprisingly healthy interest in buying in.

[Cannibal]

More here from the Herald this morning

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/health/new...ectid=10542787

[Bobby_Fischer]

" ... starting to make a profit ..." Hmmmm - a portent of a healthy interim result, I wonder? Prof. Tagg would probably know. BLT are so cheap I am almost tempted to buy a few, adverse market conditions not withstanding.

[simla]

Philosophical thought for the day while we wait for news. Everybody is wondering how to make money from shares now that confidence will be shot to pieces for years. Well, go back long enough and people used to buy an income stream. In the same way you put money in the bank for x% interest, people used to buy shares for a yield. But over time, people started bidding higher prices for shares likely to give better yields, and eventually the bubble mentality took off. It became the norm to buy shares only for capital gain, which is why PE ratios have reached high levels on some shares, and why some companies have got away with paying no dividends. What will happen next? I'm guessing people will rediscover buying shares for the income stream.

Heaps of people in the market now will have absolutely no memory of that being the reason to buy shares, just like my teenagers have no idea who Roger Douglas or Brian Edwards are. It will be a shocking lesson for most of them. You can hear them asking: but how will I make money by leveraging if the dividend yield is less than the cost of borrowing? And how can I make money buying in and out of the market all the time if the price isn't changing due to constant speculation? And what does saving mean?

[simla]

So, the moment of next news arrives. Despite Tagg's reported comments, I don't see how they can possibly announce a profit for the first half. Neither the Irish nor the American situation were in place then, whereas things were already turning down, possibly badly for all we know. Also the NZD was fairly high still, although we have not heard explicitly how currency affects Blis.

Any good news must surely fall into the current second half, and the question will be whether we hear detail or just words like "significant", which has rather been the pattern with Blis to date. So not sure what to expect here.

The big news will surely be either growth or non-growth. If there is growth, will we hear that the cornerstone shareholder has been called on to cough up to help build another factory, or will we be asked to do that? Or if there is non-growth, that would be pretty significant news considering the irish and American deals on the table. Is it too soon to hear any developments following the US trade show? Will we hear anything real about Ireland if the winter there is only just starting to cut in? Is Australia still on the boil? Does the collapse of the NZD against the USD help? The main point now is whether the growth of Blis can match the collapse of the markets generally.

Overall, hard to know what to expect. Blis has some good news on the table, but it is probably too soon to know what that will lead to, whereas the first half results may be pretty disappointing. On the other hand, Barry has shown himself pretty good at pulling some rabbit or other out of the hat each time. I think my biggest hope is that we will get news over the next six months other than having to wait for six months to tick over without any progress reports.