BLT - Blis Technologies

**simla** · 28-05-2013, 01:45 PM

Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown

promises vague and without credibility

Actually, Blis almost never make the slightest promise. For them to say they anticipate ingredient sales to increase materially is a major concession and I therefore would attach good probability to it. As you say though, it is nevertheless uncertain.

**simla** · 28-05-2013, 01:48 PM

Originally Posted by moosie_900

Can you name this "new distributor"?

It is simple knowledge for followers of Blis that they changed their international distributor (the high level one) to Stratum about two years ago (including the year of transitioning the agreements). Following that, sales stumbled for about two years and we have waited with bated breath to find out if the change was going to work. Looks like it will, even if it has cost a lot in the meantime. That's why I take considerable heart from this.

CJ · 28-05-2013, 02:13 PM

Originally Posted by simla

Can't believe you guys don't think the milk powder thing matters either.

I always struggled with the idea of taking ice cream as a 'health food' to prevent a cold. Integrating their proudct into milk or yoghurt is a much easy product to see in my opinion.

Its a share the small shareholder sell down hasn't been complete. THat has to be a major ceiling on the price at the moment and is probably the reason the buyer Moosie refered to never got very far. Once that overhang is cleared, and we (hopefully) get good news, the shareprice should add at least a few 0.1cents

CJ · 28-05-2013, 02:38 PM

If they cant sell milk power to china, then they will never acheive anything.

**simla** · 28-05-2013, 05:00 PM

On rereading the report, a few extra points arose:

The initial milk powder maybe could be here in NZ? It wasn't very clear. p8 At no point did they say what they are selling in China.

Also, I noticed "developing other revenue streams", being "finished products" (presumably Blis tablets instead of Blis powder), and "nutritional formulations with additional healthcare benefits". p6 and "the company intends to manufacture nutritional products [plural] at its own facilities for specific customers [plural]". Details to be announced. p9 I wonder what that means.

Rheumatic fever: "working with the various parties to provide assistance in trials" but the trials are "complex and expensive" p11 On the other hand, the Budget just announced $21m for rheumatic fever over 4 years, so will that pay for some of that? John Tagg must be thrilled to be in on a major government project aimed directly at what inspired him to work on Blis in the first place. Congratulations and well done. (Probably pretty sad it's a growing need on the other hand.)

"the base of our business is forecast to increase significantly" p12 Presumably they are talking revenue here, although it doesn't specifically say so. This has to be inspiring, doesn't it?

ps. To state the obvious just in case newcomers are present, yes, I own BLT shares.

CJ · 29-05-2013, 02:35 PM

So they sold for an average of 11.27c (before brokerage). They got up to 3.3c at one point after the announcement.

Hopefully with that pig of their back, they can start trading on fundamentals. Now if only we knew if they were actually selling anything...

**Nigel** · 29-05-2013, 03:09 PM

Originally Posted by CJ

So they sold for an average of 11.27c (before brokerage). They got up to 3.3c at one point after the announcement.

Hopefully with that pig of their back, they can start trading on fundamentals. Now if only we knew if they were actually selling anything...

Strange that this couldn't have been mentioned yesterday. In any case, good that this process has finished - removes the uncertainty around how many shares still need to be dumped.

Onwards and upwards? (I'm still not convinced by what we were told in the results, and slightly alarmed by the commentary in the ODT today, but then again there's nothing new there!)

**simla** · 29-05-2013, 03:22 PM

Downward weight on the share price gone. Stratum starting to bring customers to the table. Access open (or nearly so) to all the major markets they've been aiming at. Milk powder at the door (another GRAS application) along with existing chewing gum, ice cream, yoghurt and pills.

And costs of gaining all those largely behind them, apart from the next issue. (Did anyone notice the cash loss on operations last year was only 653k, and even that included allowance for 158k dividend that they later didn't pay in cash did they? So just 495k. p41. And Gourmet appeared to lose 292k in cash (p19 653-361) so did the K12 operation only lose 203k in cash all year? Not sure, seems to mean that.)

Still not a picnic, but an awful lot better than this time last year surely. Last year we had to assume and hope the logic would work out. This year there's a lot of evidence of that logic starting to work out. For the first time in a couple of years, I could see how profitability could be in reach over the next 12 to 18 months. Or with luck, maybe even before that, and maybe depending on how seriously you take all the old depreciations etc they will be obliged to report - shall we call it cash-flow positive on operations instead. It all revolves now around when and whether these new customers turn into revenue worth having, and when.

I look forward to people disagreeing with that, and I don't claim to know I'm right. Just saying I thought yesterday's report opened the door to the possibility of cash-flow positive operations in the not-too-distant future.

**Nigel** · 29-05-2013, 03:32 PM

Turning a profit or even being cash-flow positive would be a welcome and well-deserved milestone, and bring ssome much-needed investor confidence back to what is a great little company. Bring it on.