BLT - Blis Technologies

[Nigel]

Hi Nigel...have you received your hard=copy SPP already??

Nope. Record date is this coming Friday (11 Oct). Entitlement letters don't go out until 14 Oct. Apply by 1 Nov.

[Nigel]

Okay, so there's only $7k available on market at 1c. If someone who is not a shareholder wants to buy more than $7k, then they need to buy this week to be eligible for the SPP at 1c, right? Do you think we'll see any new holders joining for that purpose?

I'm excited by the involvement of NZPR and Asia Pacific Partners. Having Sinopharm (China's largest pharmaceutical company) involved is also promising - I watched part of a Chinese TV show (a bit like 'Good Morning' by the looks of it) where there were talking all about Professor Tagg and Blis products. It went for about 15 minutes, I didn't understand too much of it to be fair. But good to see lots of exposure.

Lots of money and expertise has come into the company recently and revenues are increasing. Fasten your seatbelts

[Nigel]

Make that $5k available

[Nigel]

Buying up large in BLT eh Nigel? Those profits won't even shine a light on the XRO shares you bought today though

Instead of buying $5mil of XRO, I could have become majority owner of Blis!

To be honest, I can't see BLT going down any further. Lots of recent investment at 1c and a bit of cash to play with. Revenues are growing and they are making an impact on new markets.

I won't be mortgaging the house to invets in Blis, but I'm considering backing the SPP. Having done a bit of reading recently I'm definitley more upbeat on BLT than I was a few months ago.

[Nigel]

Very conscious of that - at this stage BLT will remain a minor part of my portfolio. With a string of positive numbers under its belt (any year now, surely!), maybe that could change.

[Nigel]

No longer anything on offer at 1c. So anyone who wants in on the SPP needs to buy at 1.1c or above. (unless a seller emerges at 1c in the next two days, which is always a possibility).

[Nigel]

I'm guessing that the sellers at 1.2c are traders wanting to sell then buy back in at 1c in the SPP. Once the SPP is over I'm guessing those sellers will disappear, making for a quick price rise back to 1.5c or more. The valuation a while back suggested 1.1-1.4c was fair for minority holders. With the confidence the new investors are bringing - and the markets they have access to - plus a lot of money in the coffers and talk of profitibility in the foreseeable future, I'd suggest that the price should be a bit more than that!

[simla]

The subscriptions for the SPP should give us some idea of what shareholders are thinking. After last year's issue they announced that 166 shareholders put in 709k (plus the larger subscribers on top of that, total 1.3m.) If shareholders noticed that little phrase around the AGM, which Blis has never uttered before, " expected to deliver profitable operations in the foreseeable future" https://nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/240481 then we should see a good uptick in subscriptions here. If that doesn't at least double it, thus resulting in oversubscription, then I think the shareholders either didn't see it or didn't put much weight on it (or ran out of money, of course.)

To me, it all depends on why they are raising so much money: "expected to raise $3.5-$4.5 million " https://nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/240481 when in May they talked of "a minimum $1 million" https://nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/236711 The two statements are not incompatible, of course, but it dilutes the shares quite a bit and nobody can force them to go that far.

If they want all that money as working capital for suddenly visible growth, great. If they want it for a big push, then great if that pays off, not so good otherwise. The extra signs are good: big investments from others, building a factory suggesting an existing need, upbeat talk in the reports, various markets seemingly opening to them, etc.

But what we haven't heard is a definitive statement from the company that there really are good things just around the corner. That needn't discourage us, considering the reticence of Blis to beat their own drum. But it does leave us still with that old phrase, we'll see.

I'm hopeful though. A couple of years ago we were pretty hopeful that sales were increasing in US nationwide when in fact the reverse was happening, we just hadn't heard then. Here's my post a year ago on what seemed to have happened, which I concluded "simply very bad luck [and not] reasonable to expect last year to repeat." http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...l=1#post375051 That looks a pretty fair call now, with revenues back to where they were before the reverse (and up slightly) and now lots of potential growth apparently in front of Blis again.

(As support of that, according to the recent appraisal report, p17,p19 https://nzx.com/files/attachments/179674.pdf

Year (k)	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014 (projected)
Revenue	$1888	$1823	$1510	$1161	$1931
Net Operating Cash Flow	$-398	$-688	$-1758	$-653
)

But still a case of: We'll see. I'll be in on the issue though.

Obvious disclaimer: I own BLT.

[Nigel]

But what we haven't heard is a definitive statement from the company that there really are good things just around the corner.

I'm reading a lot into the recent investment by NZPR and Asia Pacific Partners Ltd. When these guys are buying as part of a share placement, they will be privy to discussions, plans and insights that we are not. They have invested a lot of cash into BLT on the basis of those discussions. Along with the new factory and 'formulations' they are mentioning, plus the progress in China and Japan, I'm taking a lot of confidence from the actions of key investors stumping up with cash.

[simla]

Yep, that's how I'm looking at things.