BLT - Blis Technologies

[emearg]

That's x2 BLIS ingredients products being offered by LEF and probably advertised in their glossy monthly magazine to LEF members.

This means LEF has indirectly endorsed K12 efficacy.

Here is a search I created a couple of days ago.
http://search.lef.org/search/default.aspx?s=1&QUERY=k12

Today another entry turned up (I'm pretty sure it wasn't there on Wednesday) under the article section.

It comes from their 'Life Extension Magazine July 2009'. I presume that this might be the same as the print version that Oman mentioned?

Here is the link to the first page of the article. There are two pages, and clinking on the link from the search will take you to the second page...

http://www.lef.org/magazine/mag2009/...iseases_01.htm

On the second page the string 'K12' shows up 15 times.

There are 63 references cited in the article. This is an article with credibility me thinks. So yes, I think LEF have implicitly endorsed K12's efficacy.

[simla]

Thanks, Emearg. That article was the best advert for Blis I've ever seen. More than one sentence, yet convincingly written in English, not jargon. Presumably a large number of people were sent it. Intriguing that the article does not link to the product, yet you are left wanting to search for it straight away.

[simla]

Interesting that Blis started out as a bad breath product, then has transformed into a seasonal protection product, but LEF are taking it firmly into a sort of healthy living market - seemingly right up there with statins and a daily aspirin. And you were right last year about them picking up on the inflammation stuff Oman.

[emearg]

just went back to page one of this thread and started reading, on page 2 i made comments about the wonderfull news at that time (2007), and my concerns about the sp.
and here we are in the present........ and still going down hill.

anyone planning to invest should read the whole thread before pressing a buy button.

And on the first page there is a link to the old thread that starts in 2002. Reading that is interesting as well, and helps to bring a persons expectations back to earth a little.

If good things are in Blis's future they won't come in a wave. There is plenty of time to hop on the Blis train, and without any pressure to buy NOW the share price will stay low for as long as it takes to actually turns a decent profit.

Perhaps in another 2 or 7 years a Blis thread won't be much different than it is today?

BLT certainly isn't a share for risk adverse or impatient people...

[simla]

Such despondency, gentlemen! Remember that a share price of 4 cents, with 138 million shares, and a PE of 15, reflects a profit of $368,000 (by my maths anyway, do your own to check), and profit of $750,000 would justify 8 cents, $1.1 million would justify 12 cents, etc.

Now, if we don't care if the price is 4 cents or 8 cents, then yes, it might be years before the price takes off. But we would care if a share was $4 or $8, so the principle is surely the same. Try buying them or selling them at 8 cents instead of 4 cents and the difference is surely clear.

Now, if the single distributor in Australia had come in at $354,000 (as they did the previous year) instead of the $74,000 they had this year, then the last half-year result would already have been a maiden half-year profit of $203,000, instead of a (very small) loss of $77,000. Surely the share price would have responded to that, so why should we expect several years to pass before the share price moves?

So, is a profit achievable in the shorter term? Remember we only saw the Animal Parade Inner Ear (seemingly the first US ingredient product) just before Christmas. But by March (4 months say), sales to new US manufacturers appear to have been $288,000 (international sales of 462 less Aus 74, less other US probably 100 max to judge by previous year). With several new manufacturers starting now according to the last report, surely another $300k for new manufacturers and $150k for repeat existing product is not pie in the sky for this half-year, total $450k, plus $50k old US continuing, $500k? And Australia might surely produce $50k, they must be trying to repair the damage to their own income. And say NZ picks up, as we are told it is already, to maybe $250k this year (from 150) and 70% is over winter, that would be $170k this half year. And if Japan and Korea are coming on stream soon, is it too much to think they may take up $100k during the current half year? Add in $150k "other revenue" as reported in the half-year last year. Then: NZ (170) + US (500) + Aus (50) + Asia (100) + other revenue (150) = $970k MIGHT be achievable this half year. So, yes, a half year profit is not hard to imagine. (And a full year profit is surely even easier to imagine.)

Will it happen though? Obviously we won't know till we get there. Is it possible though? Surely.

What of the effect of the preference shares? Say the company pays 10% on $3 million, but can only get 4% in the meantime, that is 6%, or $180,000 extra expense, or $90,000 for a half year. That should not change the odds too much?

So, yes, old posts certainly teach us that Blis moves more slowly than we hope. But it IS different now. Then, we hoped markets would open, now they have and are still opening in more places as we watch. Yes, there is no way of knowing when a profit will knock on the door, nor when the share price will move a lot. But it seems despondent to think it will be several years. In the meantime, it may only drift up to 5 cents or 6 cents over the coming 6 to 12 months, but some people would think a 25% to 50% price increase worth noticing. And surely it is not too hopeful to think it might move by more than that by this time next year? Where anyone stands on their own position during those sorts of movements over that time is, of course, for each of us to decide. And yes, it may NOT be any higher in a year's time. But surely it is despondent to actually EXPECT that it will stay at 4 cents for a year?

[neopoleII]

all i can say is,
just because new markets open, doesnt mean that those markets will make money.
to make money you have to sell a product.
and the products of BLT arent really selling at a level to turn a profit.
how long has the product been forsale in NZ? there is no incremental increase in sales that is stable, and after all these years, there is also no brand recognition.
then there is nestle, a few hours of globle turnover from this company could buy BLT outright, yet they are only looking at BLT products as a novelty at this stage.
maybe the real issue here is that no one really believes that K12 and its other stable mates are as good as BLT says, and researchers and scientists studying K12 around the world know the stuff works but cant yet figure its mechanisms to the point of endorsing it as a medicinal, so its labelled cosmetic and loses alot of comerical value.
which is why no major company is chucking cash at BLT bigtime.
Over time, K12 will make its own mark on the world, and K12 will become a household name........ as we all know here, its a great product, too bad a bunch sandel wearing doctors wanted to market K12 themselves.
i fully endorse K12 and will retire from the marketing and sales of K12 in the future, but untill there is product takeup from markets or the likes of nestle, its a slow road uphill.

as a side note,
VCR just went bust around xmas and they were a world leader of heart pumps and on the cutting edge of science.,
Just when they went bust, they got approval to start selling the pumps in the US mainstream, and still could not get backing with a world first 3rd generation product.

like posters have said, there is no rush to buy.
let the directors post a profit, let the directors anounce real life contracts with big companies, let the mainstream public know that k12 is something they want, and then, then start buying from 10 or 20c and ride it up to blue skies.

ps my break even is 23c now, from a $1 inital entry.
i still believe it will be a ten bagger for me
if not...... its the most expensive lesson of my life,
lucky I have ppp and nzo.

[simla]

Fair enough, NeopoleII. You and I have just put the two possible opposing views of where BLT is. So, that also answers why the share price isn't doing much - even those of us who believe in this thing aren't sure what will happen next. The figures I put up in my last post are indeed possible. They are even the figures that probably most here hope will be true. But there is no knowing if they will actually happen, or whether instead BLT history will go on as it has before - ie. pretty slowly.

It's pretty difficult to know how to react to the current situation. On the one hand, if 23 cents turns out to be a 10 bagger, then 4 cents would be a 60 bagger. But on the other hand, it's hard to put money in when years of experience shows it hasn't led to any profit. Those are the two opposing "compelling truths" here, and only one of them can in the end be true. I imagine the reason we gather in this group is to try to get a feeling from others as to which of them is the wise one to act on.

Since your break even is 23 cents down from $1, you have probably made the same compromise decision I imagine most of us have made - put more money in over time, but not throw the kitchen sink at it. I guess I've done something like that, although probably each of us has made a different choice over just how far to go.

As an added note, though, I can certainly agree there is no chance of the share price being measured in dollars any time soon, if that is what people are holding out for. It may perhaps happen some time if things work out very well indeed, but the evidence before us is a long way short of supporting that idea as it stands.

[caesar]

I liked getting a hard copy of the annual report in the mail. I don't get these sent very much anymore so I decided to read this one cover to cover. I think it was quite a good quality report. No pictures - who needs them!

Agree with Neoplole and disagree with Simla. First of all on the Australian Sales. On page 4 (operations report) under the header "Australia"there is an admission that "the decrease [in profits] was due to high opening distributor inentory levels". In other words, sales arn't actually sales to end consumers. In Australia most of the product never reached the end consumer and was dumped/stored and sold to customers this year. Hence lower orders of inventory this year (and lower sales for Blis).

How much product actually reached the hands of consumers? We don't know from the information provided. Hence, any conclusions/estimaetes as to the performance of "sales" arn't very reliable

But speaking of sales. According to page 4, there is a "re-launch"programme in New Zealand "which includes new advertising and promotional activities. The results of these activities are now only being realised. Significant improvements in retail sales accross all products have been observed." I like the sound of this! This is really stoking my fire. Is it true? What do they mean "significant"? What does this mean in $$$'s ? Where is this promotional material?

The numbers are so small in the financial statements as to make them irrelevant. It is almost impossible to value the company from projections made of these numbers. Your local dairy probababaly has a bigger and more reliable sales and COGS than this

So the operations report seems to me to be the only bit that matters with respect to the share price. So I wonder - who is it written for? There is no "dear shareholders" at the front. So it hasn't been written for us! I get the impression this person isn't writing to anyone but trying to please everyone. There are bits here that will please the distributors, the employees, the marketers. the academics and the shareholders. As a result there are pages upon pages without a clear message. So what is the strategy? "Strategy" is a word which comes up in all of their communications. But does anyone actually know what it is?

I think your interpretation of the report depends on how much belief and faith you have. There are no concrete facts. That is why none of the really big players are investing in BLIS. It is a gamble that you play with hopefully only a small amount of money. If you are into fundamentals you have nothing to go by. If you are into technicals you have no liquidity. If you are into CAPM then the Beta on this bad boy is probably irrelevant. And that is why the share price aint going to increase to any great degree anytime soon

[caesar]

If anyone is attending the shareholders meeting can they please ask what the first quarter sales figure is? If they are going to put this statement about "significant" sales increases in their report then they should provide some figures to back it up.

[simla]

If we're discussing the ins and outs of where things stand at present, we probably shouldn't forget to mention the world economy. If we have another large downturn, as some are predicting, then that will inevitably affect things pretty noticeably.

Actually, I think the most noticeable pattern in posts new and old is not so much the ongoing optimism, but the ongoing uncertainty of what the future holds. It will be nice one day to get to a point where we finally know whether the world does or does not intend to buy this product!