BLT - Blis Technologies

[neopoleII]

and that is why the sp is where it is, and will remain so until the board can prove the bottom line is moving up.

[emearg]

And if Japan and Korea are coming on stream soon, is it too much to think they may take up $100k during the current half year?

So, yes, old posts certainly teach us that Blis moves more slowly than we hope

To answer your first question taking into account the second quoted point...yes it IS too much to hope they will contribute $100k during the current half year.

The annual report says marketing strategies are being developed for these markets and anticipates it will generate some initial sales in the current financial year. Past experience suggests it will be next year, and the initial sales won't be significant.

Later it says finished retail products could be launched in Korea in early 2010. That isn't in the first half year.

And the blurb about Japan is pretty vague. The product launch was delayed a year in 2008. Was it meant to launch in early or late 2008? I'm not holding my breath for this to produce revenues any time soon...

Let us wait until we are told that a market IS on stream and then we can start speculating on how much revenue may be produced from it.

The good news is that a lot of things are all happening at the same time, and with Frutarom taking part in these activities I am expecting to see a lot more progress being made than has been achieved with Blis working alone, or with the help of a few distributors.

Everything I have seen and read about Frutarom suggests they have real muscle. For an outfit this size they should be all talk and no action but there is plenty of action. The results so far back this view.

I ran a Google search on "Optimal Oral Health Reduces Degenerative Diseases" yesterday. There were seven results. Now there are nine. These aren't huge numbers (but might become significant given time) but the key thing is the article is being published on other sites and is being talked about. This is good.

Interesting that Blis started out as a bad breath product, then has transformed into a seasonal protection product, but LEF are taking it firmly into a sort of healthy living market - seemingly right up there with statins and a daily aspirin. And you were right last year about them picking up on the inflammation stuff Oman.

Yup, and this is significant. Now that K12 is sold as an ingredient the number of potential uses/the ways in which it can be marketed has grown hugely. It is no longer limited to what Blis could envisage/afford to launch.

Different people are using the ingredient in products aimed at different target markets. We have the cold season covered, bad breath, inner ear health for kids, several products covering general health for all people and Nestle are working on an infant health product. It will be interesting to see what comes next. There have been suggestions of inclusion in yoghurt and toothpaste. Both make sense but who knows if they will make it to market?

I am enjoying watching there progress. I don't have expectations around the share price, but at some point if Blis do pull off their strategy and start producing significant and repeatable profits then the share price will start to reflect where the business is at.

Until then all we can do is observe progress and buy or sell or run a country mile...

[Lizard]

I'm just disappointed it has become so expensive - even if there is snazzy foil packaging for my $'s. No longer keeping K12 Throatguard in the cupboard as a staple medical item.

[emearg]

Another Google search (life extension "Advanced Oral Hygiene") returns 147 results

The first page of results link to six online retailers selling the new product.

No mucking around in the online retailing world it seems?!!!

It will be very interesting to see how much the US contributes to the first halves revenues.

Anybody want to offload their preference shares? ;-)

[simla]

Hey, Emearg, I thought you thought I was being too optimistic! Actually, it seems we are not too optimistic on business progress, but the dollars are harder to pick. I'll put my optimism away for a while anyway, and just wait and see what happens.

[emearg]

Hey, Emearg, I thought you thought I was being too optimistic! Actually, it seems we are not too optimistic on business progress, but the dollars are harder to pick. I'll put my optimism away for a while anyway, and just wait and see what happens.

No I just think you are trying a bit hard to count the eggs before they are laid. We know we have several chooks in the hen house. Some of them are laying. Some of them might lay this year or next. We might even get another chook or three over the next wee while. How many eggs will be laid is very hard to determine...but as Blis reckons they have enough cash to survive another three years I'm not focusing just on the revenue. Successful execution of their strategy is more important to me. This appears to be going well. Revenue/profits will flow if they get the business side right.

I am keen for June next year. The full year result will make interesting reading...

But I am going to enjoy the time between now and then and not stress over my BLT holding.

Cheers
Eme

[jonu]

Hi all
This is my first post on this site, but I have been following the discussion for a while.

Simla your detail in research is appreciated and I wouldn't let your enthusiasm for the near prospects of BLT be dampened too much. I suppose it all depends on where on the mountain you're taking in the view.

I don't see any reason why the sp isn't around 10c when you compare it to the likes of WDT or SLG. Perhaps it is history holding it back. I think Neopole said he had averaged down to 23c and I guess I would be pretty cynical from that position. However if the sp was 23c I'd be knocking them back in the Med instead of enduring NZ July.

Frankly I think the stars are pretty much in alignment for an upturn in the price that should be sustained through even modest earnings. There is significant international muscle lined up in both Nestle & Frutarom and the number of markets coming on stream is impressive.

[simla]

Thanks, Jonu.

[emearg]

Simla, I also appreciate your analysis and observations. You have certainly pointed out things that I was not aware of or had forgotten about.

I do not intend to quell your enthusiasm or optimism for the future of Blis

I am optimist about Blis as well, as you will no doubt have noted from my earlier posts. However I prefer to be conservative about what will be achieved in a given timeframe. Naturally I am happy to have my expectations exceeded.

I think right now is the best Blis has ever been, and I am reasonably confident that things will slowly get better and better

I also consider the shares cheap based on their prospects. And I say this based on market cap, rather than the price of each individual share.

So based on recent events, especially the new LEF product (which is already being widely distributed and well marketed) I have bought some more this week

PS Jonu, welcome to the forum :-)

[simla]

Hey, don't worry about me. We all chip in here, and it is the exchange of ideas that I'm sure gives many of us, including me, the confidence to buy some more from time to time, in the absence of actual profits.

But I'd make a point about the share price that doesn't seem to be getting much attention. Consider this:

If the share price was $2 instead of 4 cents (50 times the price), then it would be very necessary to be looking for the usual company metrics, consistency etc, because it would have a lot of ground to make up in profit to value out at $2. It would have to make maybe $30 million profit pa now (assuming 238 million shares, ie. about 13 cents a share) just to justify the $2, at a PE of 15. AND then go on compounding that at 10%pa to double to $4 after 7 years. But at 4 cents, a lot of things can go wrong and yet this will still stack up well - it only has to be making maybe $1m pa in a long 7 years from now (about .5 cents a share then) to represent about that same investment value, with the share price then doubled at about 8 cents (ie. current price compounding at 10% over the next 7 years.) All figures very approximate. Do your own maths as usual. Rebuttals welcome.

Most of us are probably pretty confident it will be making a lot more than $1m by 7 years from now, yet that 10% compounding would be a pretty happy return for most shares over the coming 7 years (or for houses, or for money in the bank - if inflation doesn't set in.) Of course, we all keep growing older under that sort of reasoning ... happily we are expecting progress somewhat faster.