BLT - Blis Technologies

[Brain]

Jeez mate - thats a depressing view, esp coming from a true believer

I think he has his tongue in his cheek Winner

[winner69]

I think he has his tongue in his cheek Winner

But emearg has always been so serious and sincere in his posts on BLT i find that hard to believe ......but then he may have just given up on his beloved

[simla]

Emearg, it's not about not investing. It's about balance. I assume you don't wish they had just spent an extra 10m last year for example.

But if growth is going to be slower, as now seems a possibility, then we need to be turning out profits. The patents don't last forever.

Look, the company had a 428k profit before tax locked in six months ago, and a 690k operating cash surplus. (Half year report, p6, p9). But now that's gone (though we haven't seen the cash flow yet). That would still be there if expenditure had been limited to income.

Consider the last two results expressed the old fashioned way:

FY 2016: (from 2016 Annual Report) http://blis.co.nz/media/wysiwyg/pdfs...eport_2016.pdf

100%	Sales Revenue	5.661m	2016 report, p12
-31%	Cost of Goods Sold	1.762m	2016 report, p22
69%	"Gross Profit"	3.899m	Net of above, traditional definition of gross profit?
-83%	Money the company spent	4.715m	Total expenses, 2016 report p12, 6.477m less cost of goods sold above (ie. already included) 1.762m
-14%	Net Loss	-0.816m	2016 report, p12

FY 2017: (from 2017 update 8 May 17) https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/257705.pdf

100%	Sales Revenue	6.547m	2017 update
-31%	Cost of Goods Sold *	2.049m	* If at the same rate as 2016
69%	"Gross Profit"	4.498m	Net of above, traditional definition of gross profit?
-69%	Money the company spent	4.522m	Total expenses = loss (24k) + revenue (6547) 2017 update, less cost of goods sold above (ie. already included) 2.049m
-0.003%	Net Loss	-0.024m	2017 update

As is plainly visible, there is a good underlying business turning out profits. But the company keeps outspending that profit - whatever the reasoning and sure that can be debated from various points of view.


2018 ... and all future years please (in my opinion)

100%	Sales Revenue
-31%	Cost of Goods Sold
69%	Gross Profit
-54%	Money the company can spend
+15%	Net Profit

(And hopefully the percentage profit will rise over time as the need for investment reduces. But it should never drop below 15%.)


To do that: Lock the profits in cash in a separate bank account month by month. Never ever spend ahead now because you think good times are just around the corner. If you ain't got the cash, don't spend it. Make that 15% profit every single month of the year. Month after month. Year after year. And the only way to protect that profit is to only ever spend those profits on: cash reserves; dividends; investments that qualify as capital expenditure under audit guidelines.

If this is done, so that profits are turned out like clockwork, then the company would surely become more respected on the market with a respectable share price. When the company does business overseas there is surely no doubt that the prospects look up Blis's share and many doors must surely be quietly closed as they look at a share price of just a few cents. It is simply a good business investment to protect your company's share price surely.

As usual, just my personal views as a shareholder based on the public information available to me. I have checked the figures, but check them yourselves if relying on it. Feel free to disagree. I never claim to be right.

[Bobby_Fischer]

The patents don't last forever.

Until 2020 for Strep. Salivarius K12, from memory. Was wondering when someone would bring this up.

[simla]

Hey, Bobby, nice to hear from you with one of your elusive posts

[pierre]

Without going into all the details Simla, your analysis of the financials seems pretty fair to me and I agree the company's reputation is not looking particularly flash. In fact, there must be a few red faces among the management and board members right now.

I think the BLT team had better be working on preparing a very convincing story about what went awry in 2017 and what they are going to do about fixing it over the coming year.

They had us all excited six months ago about prospects for a maiden profit of $700k and now that has turned out to be a mirage. It's obvious the market has lost confidence (latest SP 3.3c) so if BLT is investing in marketing and other activities that will turn the ship around in the next 12 months then let's have some details of the plan to give us confidence they know what they are doing.

I attended last year's AGM in Dunedin, met Brian Watson and felt he was a good choice to follow on from Barry Richardson. Right now, I'm not so sure - the general lack of communication, the reversal of fortunes in such a short period, no news of what's happening in China or other markets, not even a correction of the (admittedly minor) reporting date error in their 8 May announcement - all leave me wondering.

Friday 26 (or perhaps Monday 29) May is an opportunity for redemption. I hope Brian and the directors don't waste it.

Bonne chance.
Pierre

[Bobby_Fischer]

Hi Simla. I don't hold any more, but I still keep half an eye on BLIS' progress. At one time (we're going back to 2003 now) I must have been BLIS' no. 1 fanboy on ST, but I gradually lost confidence after repeated promises from the company that situation cashflow positive was just round the corner. Well they finally made it, so maybe brighter times are ahead? It was around the time I was losing confidence, that you showed up and took over as the main poster on the thread. I finally sold out in disgust after the debacle that was the conversion of the preference shares back in 2012, when I believe holders of the ordinary shares got stiffed ... but no need to relitigate that. Do I now detect in your posts the beginnings of exasperation with the glacially slow progress BLIS appears to be making? I've moved on to greener pastures since booking significant losses on my BLIS holdings, and I'm much happier for it, but I do wish you and all current holders the best of luck. You never know, there may still be a pot of gold at the end of the BLIS rainbow somewhere?

[simla]

Yes, Bobby, 2012 was a very testing time for investors. After much thought I finally decided I could not fault the company's actions and backed Barry to dig some new foundations for the company despite the share price which indeed he did, presumably with much effort. For those of us who did that, the reward has already been reasonable and I have a reasonable profit to show for sticking with them. But not as much as I hoped for by now.

Exasperated now? Well, we do not know enough (or I don't anyway) to know whether the company is doing well in the circumstances. But I admit that if the next report is not clear and comprehensive that I am starting to think it might be time for me to vote for some fresh blood on the board. Undecided at this stage, but every election is open to the "it's time for a change" effect. It would certainly be a considerable change of stance for me after so many years of being such a staunchly loyal shareholder. But I'll wait and see what the report says.

[pierre]

Hi Simla. I don't hold any more, but I still keep half an eye on BLIS' progress. At one time (we're going back to 2003 now) I must have been BLIS' no. 1 fanboy on ST, but I gradually lost confidence after repeated promises from the company that situation cashflow positive was just round the corner. Well they finally made it, so maybe brighter times are ahead? It was around the time I was losing confidence, that you showed up and took over as the main poster on the thread. I finally sold out in disgust after the debacle that was the conversion of the preference shares back in 2012, when I believe holders of the ordinary shares got stiffed ... but no need to relitigate that. Do I now detect in your posts the beginnings of exasperation with the glacially slow progress BLIS appears to be making? I've moved on to greener pastures since booking significant losses on my BLIS holdings, and I'm much happier for it, but I do wish you and all current holders the best of luck. You never know, there may still be a pot of gold at the end of the BLIS rainbow somewhere?

Hi Bobby

I wont presume to speak for Simla - but my own feelings are most certainly in the exasperation category that you describe.

I've been a holder and supporter since 2005 and participated in all the capital raisings since that time. My average cost is very low and I'm currently showing an unrealized gain of 75% - not as good as when the SP was up around 6c and my gain was 300%+ - but moderately acceptable all the same.

It always seems with BLT that just when the light is appearing at the end of the tunnel it turns out to be another bloody train and not the daylight that we (holders) are hoping for. As I mentioned in my earlier post neither the new CEO's disappointing lack of communication, nor the company's sudden change of fortune - once again - fill me with much confidence right now.

I actually think glaciers are probably moving faster than BLT but then again maybe we will get some more cheering news on "Monday 26 May" (sic) and the pot of gold may move into sight in the coming year. I wont be taking any wagers on it though!

[simla]

I've moved on to greener pastures ... and I'm much happier for it

It may surprise people to learn that I actually do have other investments than BLT