BLT - Blis Technologies

[simla]

As you say, Emearg, the full year result will certainly be the one to look for, as it will contain not only a year of expansion, but a full year's trading in at least some of the US. Except, by then we will also be wanting to hear a full year's results on M18, and Nestle, and China, and Asia, and ... Meanwhile, I haven't abandoned hope that this half year result will be enjoyable.

Either way, the current news may be great indeed, but it will be nice to hear an actual profit at some point. Till then, we're still banking on tomorrow. Hard to see how it can go wrong now, but all things are possible. Still, last week's news was very heartening.

[emearg]

One question I have is how are the preference share dividends going to be paid? Will be paid in cash or in the issue of additional preference or ordinary shares or something else? Thoughts??

Some of you may have missed this question? Do you have any thoughts on this? Cheers

[Cannibal]

Can't resist posting this from a UK blog...

"Blis K12's good bacteria are more beneficial. Besides populating your mouth with good bacteria, somehow it manages to prevent flu and sorethroat and it helped my bowel movement, nowadays i pass motion everyday, sometimes twice a day."

Lotsa scatological pun potential there!

[Glendoonie]

Besides populating your mouth with good bacteria ...... and it helped my bowel movement, nowadays i pass motion everyday, sometimes twice a day."

Good grief !!!! Have you any other anecdotal evidence?

[simla]

Emearg, the big players surely will be keen for cash, and Blis must have plenty of cash in hand from the rights, and they are expecting positive cash flow any time now. I'd be surprised if it wasn't paid in cash.


Meanwhile, here's a simple bit of arithmetic people might find fun to do, now the business plan is proceeding so quickly.

Say the Blis share price was $1. If the PE was 15, then how many cents per share profit must Blis have made to justify the $1 (ie. divide $1 by 15)? Since there are currently 138 million shares, then what total profit must Blis have made, in dollars (ie. multiply the cents per share by 138 million, and make sure the answer is in dollars not cents)?

Now, say Blis had opened into markets of 2 billion people. China, Europe, US and SE Asian should safely cover that, as planned. And say that the profit was proportional to the size of each country. Then NZ is just 4 million of those 2000 million people. Take the total dollars profit you just calculated justifying the $1 share price, and work out how much of that would have been made in NZ. (ie 4/2000ths of total profit in dollars), thus getting the profit attributable to NZ to justify a share price of $1. Now, how much profit do you think NZ will actually bring to Blis? Interesting?

Of course, profit margins reduce as volume increases. And profits do not simply scale by population. And lots of other objections, such as time scale. And we cannot possibly see the future, so that is very definitely not a prediction. Etc, etc, etc .

But that illustrates why I hope NZers hang on to their Blis shares for some time to come. Alas, only the future will tell if holding on is actually a good idea. Looking good though.

[emearg]

I see that the share price is slowly increasing despite my earlier prediction. The bid and ask are both in the 9 cent range today.

My movements haven't been effected by taking K12

[emearg]

Say the Blis share price was $1. If the PE was 15, then how many cents per share profit must Blis have made to justify the $1 (ie. divide $1 by 15)? Since there are currently 138 million shares, then what total profit must Blis have made, in dollars (ie. multiply the cents per share by 138 million, and make sure the answer is in dollars not cents)?

Simla, I think you should factor in the converted preference shares into your calculations.

If Blis does well, the three million preference shares will convert into 75 million ordinary shares. So rather than doing the sums using 138 million shares, I think they should be done using 213 million shares.

Do you agree that this is more realistic or do you think it is premature? If you think the latter then do you have a better way to value the company/calculate potential PE etc?

[simla]

You're quite right, Emearg. But I would go for 238 million, as the other $1 million option is on the table too, isn't it? However, the suggested arithmetic gives such a happy result that it doesn't make too much difference. The answer I got was undoubtedly exceeded quite some time ago already.

[Cannibal]

Simla - ta for the analysis - excellent work again.
Emearg - glad your bowels are good.

Not sure if this is old or not -

In response to the growing demand for an effective breath-freshening solution, Frutarom, the exclusive marketer of BLIS K12T, a new oral cavity probiotic bacteria, released study results showing BLIS K12 can effectively treat bad breath. In 2007, Americans spent nearly $6.7 billion on mouth-freshening products, according to the market-research firm Euromonitor International.

Let me write that out for you - US$6,700,000,000 per annum on mouth freshening.

Now a mere 1% slice of that market would be...

[simla]

Thanks for that one, too, Cannibal. The significance of that one had quite slipped by me.