Proxy voting has closed. Time for one of my long posts? Tough, here it is anyway
I wonder if this vote is way deeper than just judging how the financials are going at BLT? Why is the company going to such lengths to reject Barry after so many years' service? What is the plan of the new management?
All over the world now it is quite evident that there is a deep rift in society. Trump. Brexit. Putin's Russia. Right wing parties in Europe. Even India is caught up in it trying to abolish cash in the face of traditional Indian culture.
How to characterise this deep rift? Well, I think of it as a battle over post-modernism (used in the broader sense than merely describing an art movement). It is the culmination of the Enlightenment which began in the 1600s as the Dark Ages slowly receded into history and then the rise of the City State made possible the idea of improving the lot of mankind instead of just endlessly living a daily grind of violence, poverty and disease. The idea took root that we could make the world a better place and this became an increasing focus of humanity over the centuries that followed. It is a good plan and has gained near universal adoption around the world.
But along the way a certain dotted line was passed that not everyone has since agreed on. Somewhere we changed from merely making the world a
better place to making the world a
perfect place. I think it probably happened over the last 60 or 70 years, partly as a reaction to World War 2, and partly as an offshoot of the incredible prosperity made possible by the widespread use of oil. Alongside it grew the idea of individualism, a long way from Kennedy's "think not what society can do for you". Social welfare flourished, and quality control is all the rage, along with championing the rights of the minority, hi tech, smartphones etc.
It is epitomised in modern-day Europe with EU government, Eurovision and the illegality of hate speech. Disneyland was an earlier version that still holds sway in Los Angelos and New York.
But underlying that dream are some awkward facts. Beggars are common throughout the prosperous West now. People live under bridges and in cars, and statistics are being massaged to hide some truths that aren't popular in some quarters.
Some of you will be aware of a place called Shadowstats, where US government statistics are available as they would have been calculated years ago before the formulas were changed to give nicer answers. That site tells us that US unemployment is reported today at 4% but would once have been counted at a staggering 22% with the old formula. US Inflation is reported at 3% but would have been reported at 6.5% - obviously incomes are not going up at 6.5% pa but costs are.
Underlying all of this is the ever more visible question: is the world actually a better place? Those who do well under the current system have voted against Brexit, for Hilary Clinton, etc - for the status quo in other words, presumably because they think it is going pretty well. Those who are not the winners have voted for Brexit and for Trump. This is possible because the number of losers is now so high that they can win elections. A recent poll in the UK, for instance, shows that 40% would now vote for a right wing anti-immigrant party, which would have been unthinkable a few years ago. So far this force does not seem to have arrived in a NZ political party but I suspect it will.
So how does all this apply to BLT? Well, I would offer the possibility that the same battle is being fought out at BLT. Barry was definitely of the "roll up your sleeves, muck and dirt" variety that believes that good results come from hard work and solid preparation. Whereas I think it is possible that the current management are from the European mold of sophistication, build it and they will come, marketing will create the market, the world should be a good place, good concepts become good reality.
Now the intriguing thing is that (presently at least) BOTH models are viable. Facebook prospers with the post-modernist model and the FAANGS are holding together the S&P 500. It DOES make money and it is an in demand model. On the other hand there is no denying that basics are in strong demand too. Supermarket in-store brands are flourishing, and the label brands are struggling to hold them off nowadays.
History appears to be at a balancing point and there is no knowing what the future will hold. Maybe both models will continue as viable, maybe one model will swamp the other. I think personally that Brexit models the situation very well. There is no telling which side will win in the short term, nor which side will represent the public mood in the end.
So is this what the vote is about at BLT right now? Does Barry represent the one model, and the new management are trying to switch BLT to the other model as being more appropriate and successful? I don't know and this is just my random musings. I think it is possible though. It would explain why they do not want Barry to join in.
However, if so, then the result would not be a vote on Barry or the Board but a vote on which model the company will pursue. Presumably Barry's time attracted a lot of shareholders who liked the one model but who may have left since then. And the new management style may have attracted a whole lot of newer shareholders who like the other model.
Friday will tell us the result, but not its meaning alas. These are musings, but their truth cannnot be known.
As always, merely my own random thoughts. I have tried not to portray either viewpoint as right. Obviously I personally have an opinion, but I never claim to be right and history is always the judge in the end. Or maybe I have just imagined all of this.
Originally Posted by Yoda
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