BLT - Blis Technologies

[Rego55]

As I predicted..... A few burnt fingers today I suspect.

Pierre, where do you realistically see Blis getting to by the end of this year?

I'm surprised to see it up hitting 9.5 after getting so used to it being in the 2's and below.

[kerryo]

Pierre, where do you realistically see Blis getting to by the end of this year?

I'm surprised to see it up hitting 9.5 after getting so used to it being in the 2's and below.

It will depend on their results and updates during the year. Anyone's guess??

[pierre]

Pierre, where do you realistically see Blis getting to by the end of this year?

I'm surprised to see it up hitting 9.5 after getting so used to it being in the 2's and below.

I was surprised too.

The company has issued three updated guidance reports over the past 2 months (4 February, 16 March & 9 April). The revenue projections increased from $9.4m in Feb to $10.6m on 9 April. Interestingly, almost all of that forecast revenue gain (+$1.2m) has translated through to increased EBITDA (+$1.1m). They might have canned a few expenses over the past few months, but the figures seem to indicate either BLT was undercooking their initial profit forecast or they must have some pretty healthy margins. (A bit of both I suspect.)

At 9c the company is valued at $100m and +/-$2m profit doesn't exactly justify that SP. The PE at around 60 suggests there's a huge amount of growth already baked in.

Some of the big questions in my mind are:
a) will the "immunity demand" that is driving growth continue and be sustainable post-Covid?
b) will an investment in more marketing further increase sales?
c) can the company capitalise on this opportunity to expand into new markets? China has been talked about in the past but doesn't appear to be have eventuated. Getting traction there would be a game changer.
d) do they have production capacity (or can quickly develop it) to maximise the current opportunities?
e) what will the profit be if sales increase to say $20m for FY21?

What will the SP be at the end of the year? Depends on the answers to the questions above - and probably some others too.

I'm not at all sure an SP with a 9 in it is justified right now. I'm reserving judgement though until we get the EOFY report in May - unless there's another market update prior to then.

Meantime I am certainly enjoying the roller coaster ride and the renewed interest in BLT (15 million shares changed hands today - none of them were mine though!)

[patrick]

e) IF Sales increase to $20m then on reported figures ( 9th April) profit will be around $10m

[SausageDog]

Blis’ biggest problem is their ingredient supply chain, they have soaked up there reserve raw material in this extra sales demand. Fonterra manufacture their probiotic K12 raw ingredients and can only deliver contracted supply and have no capacity to increase the raw material supply to BLIS. This will cause a raw material supply shortage going forward as indicated in their release on Thursday. Basically they can’t sell more than the have, and they have no capacity for increasing production of the pure K12 ingredients. Increasing sales to $20m next year is unlikely unless they find additional raw material supply. It not that easy to ramp up, and who else can wholesale manufacturing probiotics especially in NZ.

I believed Blis is overvalued at present as they haven’t proven their reliability or their business continuity. Perfect storm in demand leading to shortages in the future months.

Tread carefully here, great business in principal , don’t get burnt by the hype, this is a business still run by scientist and not businessmen and has growing pains to come.

Their products absolutely do work , I have seen proof time and time again and the science backs it up. I do believe in Blis but to many shares on issue and they are constrained by their ability to rapidly grow .


Disclosure: I am an amateur on here and this is just my very small opinion.

[patrick]

The latest report alerts to the distribution problem, no mention of ingredient supply problem.
Can you expand S Dog, and thanks.

[Sideshow Bob]

I was surprised too.

The company has issued three updated guidance reports over the past 2 months (4 February, 16 March & 9 April). The revenue projections increased from $9.4m in Feb to $10.6m on 9 April. Interestingly, almost all of that forecast revenue gain (+$1.2m) has translated through to increased EBITDA (+$1.1m). They might have canned a few expenses over the past few months, but the figures seem to indicate either BLT was undercooking their initial profit forecast or they must have some pretty healthy margins. (A bit of both I suspect.)

At 9c the company is valued at $100m and +/-$2m profit doesn't exactly justify that SP. The PE at around 60 suggests there's a huge amount of growth already baked in.

Some of the big questions in my mind are:
a) will the "immunity demand" that is driving growth continue and be sustainable post-Covid?
b) will an investment in more marketing further increase sales?
c) can the company capitalise on this opportunity to expand into new markets? China has been talked about in the past but doesn't appear to be have eventuated. Getting traction there would be a game changer.
d) do they have production capacity (or can quickly develop it) to maximise the current opportunities?
e) what will the profit be if sales increase to say $20m for FY21?

What will the SP be at the end of the year? Depends on the answers to the questions above - and probably some others too.

I'm not at all sure an SP with a 9 in it is justified right now. I'm reserving judgement though until we get the EOFY report in May - unless there's another market update prior to then.

Meantime I am certainly enjoying the roller coaster ride and the renewed interest in BLT (15 million shares changed hands today - none of them were mine though!)

I've been looking at Blis and earlier thought their bottom line would take a good boost with an increase in sales. Been trying to model what it might come out like, but bit like you, a bit surprised by the latest announcement.

Again that PE is pretty grunty. They've been at it a long time so good to see them have a bit of time in the sun.

15 million shares sounds like a lot......except that they have over 1.1 billion on issue! A good candidate for a share consolidation.

[Sideshow Bob]

One thing I was interested in recently was their patent situation - but got no replies. Anyone have a brief overview? TIA.

[Arthur]

The latest report alerts to the distribution problem, no mention of ingredient supply problem.
Can you expand S Dog, and thanks.

We anticipate challenges ahead with interruptions to our supplier base and ongoing delays in the outbound supply chain related to freight capacity. We will continue to monitor the situation closely.”

[pierre]

I

15 million shares sounds like a lot......except that they have over 1.1 billion on issue! A good candidate for a share consolidation.

Agree 15m is only a small proportion of the total number of shares issued but quite high volume relative to normal daily trading.
Share consolidation hasn't been considered by the company in the past because of the cost of the exercise. Could be a good time to get this back on the company's radar - as long as it doesn't divert their attention from continuing to ramp up production and sales.