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  1. #21
    Share Collector
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    Default

    Click on the "scales" icon at the top of one of Shrewd's posts and you can permanently add to his reputation on the forum.

  2. #22
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    Lizard,
    To be honest I cant really be bothered about this reputation bull****.
    Is this something they have just introduced or was it on the other site?
    Grateful your response.

  3. #23
    Guru Crypto Crude's Avatar
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    Serpie
    Cobra
    Thanks to Mhasibu on SS for posting info on Cobra.

    If you have a look at Encore's website there's a presentation from early July that has their drilling schedule.
    Cobra's booked in for 2008 Q2 at this stage.
    SIR PPEEEEEEEEEEEeeeeEe
    maybe so, yes 3rd quarter drill is an outside shot and always was..helped on alittle through speculation driven by a few posters.... the company hasnot denied that the JV is in negotions with drilling contractorS, and its even printed in the latest NWE quarterly activitys report which is a more recent update than that of the encore presentation in 'early July'...haha.... (note- the s on the end of comtractors).... IMO, The JV is weighing up rushing into the drill vs finding the best deal for the JV... the terms of a drill in 3rd quarter would not look as attractive as a drill next year in terms of the offer..... because from my understanding, that a German contractor was on standby and prepared to drill 3rd quarter, and NWE havnot denied it.. if the Cobra drill was in 2nd quarter 08, then this would flow on nicely from 3 drill AC/P22 program, Cobra drill, AC/P32 drill, then ARQ drill (off memory TP/15 drill?)... then South West 1st production... then time to take a holiday... remember that most of the cost of Cobra drill are covered by the two Indian partners, and Cobra was a structure that has previously discovered gas...
    replying to all the nice things that capital B said, oiler, mattyroo, IT,Mac D,HC, etc...
    SIr peeeEeEeeeeEEEE and I were discussing it once before, and I totally agree that these people here are a great bunch of people to associate with because it makes an individual want to lift their game...I dream of one day being able to buy a micro stock like TEX...
    or buying a NWE selling every single asset and then collecting royalty cheques many times larger than the value of the company... (at the beginning of the year a 40million offer)....20cents per share,50% premium to SP.... why would you not do this if you had 40million...? damn, I need a better relationship with my bank... haha... lata...
    Nakamoto means of Central origin ...

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by bermuda View Post
    Lizard,
    To be honest I cant really be bothered about this reputation bull****.
    Is this something they have just introduced or was it on the other site?
    Grateful your response.
    Hi Bermuda. A new feature on this forum.

    Sharescene has a reputation feature, but a bit different from this one, since it is not anonymous and the scoring is a little more obvious. I'm not sure how many rep points it takes before a persons reputation card changes text from "on a distinguished road", but it is obviously more than one or two, so it would need a reasonably frequent use to make any difference.

    My opinion, the most helpful aspect is probably to encourage good posters to keep posting (and bad ones to tone it down?). Maybe also useful for newbies to get a feel for who might be worth listening to?

  5. #25
    Senior Member Serpie's Avatar
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    Default Nwe

    Shrewd Crude dreams of buying a $40M oil company.

    Serpie dreams of buying a bigger TV and an electric wok - Serpie needs bigger goals!

    I think the truth about the Cobra drill may lie somewhere in between the Encore report and the NWE report. Encore say Q2 2008, while NWE say that they're currently negotiating with drill contractors and haven't selected one yet. Which raises the obvious question, which is how can Encore have booked a drill slot when a contractor hasn't been appointed yet.

    My only concern with the rumours surrounding the German drilling contractor is that they were first raised (I believe) by "Nazz" on HC, who has a track record of spectacular claims regarding NWE that don't amount to anything.

    NWE up 10% on tiny volume (617k) yesterday. One way traffic which would suggest to me that it's being reasonably tightly held today. Hopefully we'll have more of the same today.


    A belated reply to TechStep who asked "70mil income for a company valued at 50mil does not seem like much at all IMHO":

    TS, you're right in saying that $70M income (or revenue) isn't much, but $70M net profit, or pretty close to it considering the NWE costs associated, looks pretty good.

    As far the market already factoring in the Puffin income, I think that you are completely correct in saying that this was largely factored in, but when the SP was 35c pre-correction (assuming the corection is over) rather than at it's current level of 28c. Even then I think that Puffin may be worth another 5c on top of a 35c SP once production starts. All IMO only of course, and with perhaps a hint of optomism.

  6. #26
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    I tend to be very conservative with my investments. SC's thorough DD convinced me to see for myself; then I went all in with my downunder investments with an average SP of 21.2. When it was up at about 35, I put in stoploss orders at 27.5 that have since been triggered.

    Because of Shrewdy's excellent analysis, I was able to make a solid gain of over 25% within just a couple of months.

    He gets five stars from me.

    I'm out of the market for the time being. I think NWE is solid, but I think it's caught up in a macro-economic movement, that is due to a burgeoning commercial credit crisis. This crisis was triggered by the sub-prime and alt-A mortgage market collapse in the US. Large hedge funds are writing off billions of dollars of CDO assets and it has a tremendous knock-on effect.

  7. #27
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    Default When will first royalties be received by NWE?

    SC or any other holders, have you done any projections/calculated just when NWE will receive their royalties? I ask this question because I don't think the share price will really take off until the initial royalties are actually received by NWE and likely subsequent receipts can be estimated/quantified. I've been thinking about when this might happen.

    Some factors affecting this include:

    (a) commissioning of the wells affects flowrates and quantity of oil pumped out, and we have learned from useful comments from Oiler and Roo on Sharetrader in relation to TUI that this takes time (anything up to 100 days or more from the time the first oil flows).

    (b) the size of the royalty payment in a period will depend on the quantity of oil sold and the price received for it.

    (b) There is sometimes a "grace period" before royalties start having to be paid (6 months or a year or more) - is this the case between AED and NWE?

    (c) once the royaly payment system kicks in they are normally paid "in arrears". This might be 6 months or one year in arrears.

    (d) depending on how NWE reports to shareholders about royalties received and for what period, it could be some time before shareholders know exactly what is happening.

    I agree the royalty revenue is going to be great for NWE shareholders but it seems to me it could well be mid 2008 or later before NWE actually gets any royalties coming in. Any more accurate projections?
    Taijon
    Wellington

  8. #28
    Senior Member Serpie's Avatar
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    Default Royalties

    Gidday Taijon,

    I believe that the royalties are paid quarterly in arrears.

    The delays so far, with the FPSO and reported problems at the wellhead, have been mildly frustrating. Once we get news of first oil then I hope that the full value will get factored in, regardless of any possible subsequent delays with payments etc.

  9. #29
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    well I jumped on board today 18k shares at an average price of 28.7c (Just a small parcel compared to most I ma sure)

    looking foreard to them pumping oil!

  10. #30
    Guru Crypto Crude's Avatar
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    1.....SC or any other holders, have you done any projections/calculated just when NWE will receive their royalties?

    2.....I ask this question because I don't think the share price will really take off until the initial royalties are actually received by NWE and likely subsequent receipts can be estimated/quantified.

    3.....I've been thinking about when this might happen.
    Some factors affecting this include:

    commissioning of the wells affects flowrates and quantity of oil pumped out, and we have learned from useful comments from Oiler and Roo on Sharetrader in relation to TUI that this takes time (anything up to 100 days or more from the time the first oil flows).

    4....the size of the royalty payment in a period will depend on the quantity of oil sold and the price received for it.

    5.....There is sometimes a "grace period" before royalties start having to be paid (6 months or a year or more) - is this the case between AED and NWE?

    6.....once the royaly payment system kicks in they are normally paid "in arrears". This might be 6 months or one year in arrears.

    7......depending on how NWE reports to shareholders about royalties received and for what period, it could be some time before shareholders know exactly what is happening.

    8.......I agree the royalty revenue is going to be great for NWE shareholders but it seems to me it could well be mid 2008 or later before NWE actually gets any royalties coming in. Any more accurate projections?
    1....as Serpie said that Royalty checks are collected quarterly in arrears...
    I cant remember the exact details and on down to which day/ week NWE gets paid... its of no significance in the overall picture to me other than we are paid quarterly in arrears.. shasta had a better understanding of those details than I..?

    2..... Before NWE I had never invested into a company that has collected such large revenues through royaltys, I donot agree with you on what you have said here.. and intuition tells me that the company will re-rate at production rather than when the royalty check will be collected and banked...
    companys do allow for the fact that these revenue streams are building and are disclosed in their financial statements, and it is called 'accrued revenue'... as a current asset...

    3.... first of all, I am far more confident with this project than that of TUI... TUI never disclosed flow rates and AED have...and the project has already had delays so first production willnot be many months off... latest company announcement said late august/early sept.... mattyroo and I have previously said sept.... oct... whatever.... as long as its coming then it dont matter...
    Puffin has had its delays as have most other projects being comissioned? mattyroo will best be able to answer questions about this....

    4.....yes that is totally true... this is why NWE was booming is SP a few weeks back when oil prices were tipping real high, but have now fallen by $5 bucks a barrel... so when barrels will be flowing, NWE will have a higher correlation to the price of oil as price differentials will play a large role in the total royaltry recieved from AED....

    5....no grace its royalty straight from the bat.... yes Royolcos royalty over Ocieania golds reefton project had a delay before royaltys kicked in...

    6.... quarterly as serpie has said...

    7....Im sure NWE will keep shareholders fully informed about the situation and NWE have nott been afraid of making market announcements when AED have made stellar upgrades, or successfull drilling results... I am not concerned about this...remember that NWE has no contact with AED... NWE get the same info that everybody else gets which is market published... there is no talk between AED, and NWE from what I have been told....

    8.... cheques will arrive before then...I wouldnot want to speculate on exactly when... its no concern to me if we get first cheque in Dec or Feb... first production is more important than that...


    to do with the yearly cashflow net to NWE....
    "on the old NWE thread forwhich there is a link on the very first post of the new thread.... a bunch of us all put forward valuations including shasta and I.... so just go and check it out... you will have to change the numbers around because some were working on flow rates of 40k barrels per day after Puffin 8 came in rather a surprise which flow tested, and flow rates at first production of 15-20k were expected...
    Last edited by Crypto Crude; 09-08-2007 at 11:29 PM.
    Nakamoto means of Central origin ...

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