NWE- the shell and possible 20 bagger

[mattyroo]

The Front Puffin FPSO made was scheduled to depart Singapore today at 1pm, this was the third time it was supposed to leave, yet again due to the serious problems on board it did not leave. From what I understand it may be some time before it leaves. This is costing AWE a bomb every day, money which comes directly off their bottom line. Fortunately this does not affect NWE's bottom line, just means that it delays their ORR.

[Oiler]

The Front Puffin FPSO made was scheduled to depart Singapore today at 1pm, this was the third time it was supposed to leave, yet again due to the serious problems on board it did not leave. From what I understand it may be some time before it leaves. This is costing AWE a bomb every day, money which comes directly off their bottom line. Fortunately this does not affect NWE's bottom line, just means that it delays their ORR.

This sounds familiar, Umaroa was pushed out of the yard before it was finished. It sounds to me there is a planning/scheduling/quality control issues at Keppel Shipyard.

[mattyroo]

This sounds familiar, Umaroa was pushed out of the yard before it was finished. It sounds to me there is a planning/scheduling/quality control issues at Keppel Shipyard.

Oiler,

It is not the shipyards that have these issues, it is the construction companies.

The construction companies plan their schedule then book the slot at the shipyard, the shipyard then quite rightfully books another vessel into the slot after the "intended sail away date" of the first vessel. These vessels never leave on time.

The problem is that the shipyards are just too busy at the moment.

The problem with the Puffin has nothing to do with the shipyard......

The FPSO I am currently commissioning is also well behind schedule.

[macduffy]

Considering that NWE's major asset is its ORR over the Puffin field, I am surprised that the share price is not correlated more closely to that of AED.
A few minutes ago, AED sp had moved +42c today - +6.8%.
NWE hasn't moved!
I know there's more to NWE than Puffin but any ideas out there on this point?

[macduffy]

Just had another look.
Big spread in the bid/offer so maybe the +6.8% ( now 8% ) won't last the day!

[Crypto Crude]

macduffy,
NWE and AED are correlated...
you will notice by comparing the charts that both stocks now are at the levels they were on, in May... both stocks have fallen 10% over the two previous trading days... and NWE had 3 days before that of sp rising 14%...when AED's didnt... so AED are playing catchup I guess...
they have both been uptrending over a period stretching back before the beginning of this year....they both share the same asset and they both recently took a hit....
(aed fell from 9.02 to what it is currently, NWE fell from 34-35cents to 26)...
so yes they both do have the same general pattern, stocks that are correlated donot have to trade exactly the same on a given day...(perfectly correlated stocks do, and these arent perfectly correlated stocks, and I will explain further

AED do have cost blowouts(160k US per day for FPSO on loan) which is effecting the company in a different way to NWE which has zero costs and no extraction costs, doesnot need to set contracts, equipment, staff, etc in order to collect cheques...
so the cost structures are different (costs vs zero costs, so delays impact differently)...
you see AED have layed out lots of cash which is currently not returning anything (yet), and NWE have layed out nothing apart from a postal address to send the chqs to...

I think that maybe NWEers are alittle more aware of the situation with further delays expected after Mattyroo posted here, and the general market would not be looking at this thread, But many NWEers do.. and the general market is still not be aware of the situation around delays... so AED investors started to buy today on the back of falling SP yesterday...
this is a great project and smart investors buy on dips....

one other point is that at this early stage NWE investors are looking to AED for direction on how to value this project into investing decisions... EG, if AED is strong then NWE investors think, oh this is positive... when production starts then NWE will have a mind of its own, and willnot be tied into AED happens as much... because AED is getting pulled down because of cost over-runs and this is pulling NWE down, even though cost overruns donot effect NWE...

[macduffy]

Thanks S-C. Good points, particularly the impact of costs on AED.
I got a bit excited when I saw the strength of AED today without corresponding movement in NWE.

Disc. NWE/AOE/BPT/STO

[mattyroo]

Time to double up.

[hods]

Is it on the move mattyroo?

[Sideshow Bob]

Only on the move down - 22c