NWE- the shell and possible 20 bagger

[drillfix]

Airdale, I was gonna make a post reflecting this exact sentiment yesterday but was busy.

Yesterday's Ann from NWE is nearly identical to the one issued on 30 Nov 2011 with the exception of half of the 2nd paragraph on page one, which on the new Ann today states:

Following the announcement of the Minister’s decision, on-site activities
will recommence immediately in preparation for delivery of the frac spread for the
fracture stimulation and flow testing program.

Now as you say Airedale, or in some ways, NWE seem to actually make it sound like a done deal or a know result by the way they post in a kinda way.

30 Nov 2011 said: Additionally, upon the announcement of the Ministers decisions it is intended to recommence on-site
20 Jan 2012 said: Following the announcement of the Minister’s decision, on-site activities will recommence

Now just trying to decipher the way the company has worded each Ann, as both sound like its a done deal, however why is the long and drawn out wait, or process for decision or acceptance?

To me, if they have to consider this appeal or to give acceptance, then surely there are other issues or things they must be thinking about or to take into consideration which may not be as easy for them to give acceptance, though what would these issues be to cause such a delay??

Thats all I want to know, as too many times these feel good simple Ann's have burnt a hole in my pocket so hence my query to stay objective, thats all.

ps:
Still holding a small parcel though remain Objective.

[tobo]

The business plan is reliant on a successful outcome.
No success, no business. All activities are aligned towards doing whatever it takes to succeed.
Although failure is possible, management are charged to ensuring failure does not occur.

The wording is just phrasing the INTENT of the business. They are not going to explain that if they are turned down, they will cancel this, sell that, and fire those people. So I do not think the wording means they secretly know they are 100% going to succeed, it just means they know the HAVE to succeed and that the EXPECT to succeed.

100% certainty would see Mr Market at a very different sp.

(Yes, I hold.)

[drillfix]

Tobo, the problem here for some of us is that there are two sides of the coin.

NWE only seem to be speaking (in the Ann) of one side of the coin, that is what is scary (for some of us).

Please dont take me the wrong way here as I want NWE to achieve its goals, but when I see wording like this, I cannot help but to think about URA when it was in full swing, delays, appeals, and a whole bunch of positive Wash to put failure out of the minds of shareholders while the dragged carrots all the way up the road.


Now to cut a long story short, Uran broke me, took me out of the game. Now I know this is not Uran, nor are the politics or the geographics the same, but that is not what concerns me as, when I read stuff whereby NWE sounds like its a done deal and there is no deal yet, nor the other side of the coin to be heard of, then I instantly expect for the worst.


ps:
I still hold a small parcel

[tobo]

Yes, each of us ascribes a percentage change of bad outcome. One person may call NWE 5% chance, another might call it 30%. I guess your point is that we would love to know what NWE themselves think their chance is, and your concern is that it might be worse than is implied in their announcements. Confidence in management is a really important plank to FA investors and loss of confidence can have a big affect on SP.
Someone recently changed the thread title. It used to refer to something about sucking money out of shareholders : there was a loss of confidence in management back whenever, and that's how we got down to 3c.
You have now prompted/reminded me to do a bit more research into the management.
(You are heavy on TA, aren't you, but I guess you combine both, with FA having greater importance the longer term the investment)

[drillfix]

Yes, each of us ascribes a percentage change of bad outcome. One person may call NWE 5% chance, another might call it 30%. I guess your point is that we would love to know what NWE themselves think their chance is, and your concern is that it might be worse than is implied in their announcements. Confidence in management is a really important plank to FA investors and loss of confidence can have a big affect on SP.
Someone recently changed the thread title. It used to refer to something about sucking money out of shareholders : there was a loss of confidence in management back whenever, and that's how we got down to 3c.
You have now prompted/reminded me to do a bit more research into the management.
(You are heavy on TA, aren't you, but I guess you combine both, with FA having greater importance the longer term the investment)

Nicely dialog there tobo.

This thread from memory was Crash, Bash and Destroy or something like that...LOL

Good to see it renamed kept into perspective so good on thread owners to manage the threads they start to reflect whatever potential or direction.

And yes tobo, I primarily trade with TA yet can agree that if one uses both TA & FA they can time their entries or exits better. With regards to NWE, it has been in a downtrend and to me had appeared to have bottomed out. Plus stupid as this may sound, I also chose to join the gang here for the ride as sometimes its a lonely traders world out there.

[Crypto Crude]

response to a bunch of posters...

Yes,
NWE is re-emerging after a bad past.. it was a fun ride... The new NWE is different to the old one...

This next is in reference to the sector but totally applies to NWE, and my experience of it....
like many of the other stocks I held... The companies couldn't retain their leveraged play's, their intentions and the nature of their portfolios changed when announcements came out downgrading projects ... and well yes, risks of the business changed, and many have since fallen for years...timing of an exit over the last 5 years has been crucial for profitable investors in small oil AUS/NZ... In projects, as well as exploration drilling... So nothing is certain until it actual happens... just that things are lining up with a special (big) shale resource we hold...

I like the Re-emerging NWE, more than I liked NWE when it had the Puffin
Royalties...


Our chances this time are interesting...
I don't doubt in my mind that Shale will go ahead in Australia in a big way... The real production doesn't come for a decade though...
If we dont get it right with the Enviro angle this time, shale won't go away, and it will only intensify as time passes...



will Shale happen... absolutely...
when? I don't know...

this is why I have posted such excitment because nothing will take away our resource, we will retain these shales... only time can be taken away from us as we wait for the ivory tower decisions to swing our way ...

I am in the view that the decision will be favourable, and we can proceed with fracc, but their will be some restrictions through compliance, and red tape...

I am well invested in NWE mid 3's...
I am sitting on cash too, and waiting to see what happens next...
I am looking to buy more at some stage but will wait on ministers decision...
DOW too high for my liking...

I have never failed when I pushed all in...
I have time...
but am liking other stocks, so only for that reason do I need NWE to run...

will pop by in the next few...
take care...

.^sc

[tobo]

appreciate your quality posts, both of you

[ELYOB]

SC, change those NGE to NWE ie: G ------> W !

[Crypto Crude]

I dont hold many NGE, its not worth selling them...
happy to hold...

AWE on a nice rise lately...
I guess most stocks rising so...
perhaps not much to look into....


.^sc

[drillfix]

Some more news today: http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asx...f/01262545.pdf


NWE have also seemed to apply for the remaining near last acreage in the basin.

Sill looking forward to epa updates, but good to see some interest and movement as well.