MQG Macquarie Group

[soulman]

MBL going berserk after releasing a statement stating profits will be up approximately 40% for the first half.

Missed out this morning at $74, missed at $70 last week but I do hold a bit of MBL bought at the mid $80's. Hence, still bleeding but would have been happier with a cheaper purchase. I was always going to buy more MBL at $70 but when that time came, I chicken out and pushed the bid price to $68.50 and that days low was $69.10.

Now, this is substance. All the fear in the world cannot compare to a company's bottom line.

[OneUp]

The key is next six months profit, not last six months.

Mr Ward said: “Investors should exercise particular caution in drawing inferences
from the expected first half result for the full year result especially because of the
difficulty in predicting market conditions for the remainder of the financial year."

[soulman]

Yes OneUp, but the thing is, MBL always said that - the usual caveat of 'subject to market condition' so the next 6 months is no different. The fact that they said the figure 40% is the reason for the spike because I and many others are probably only expecting 20-30% and that was when the share price was $89. So now at $77's, it's a steal. I will not buy today though because the rise today is a bit too much. If MBL goes another $2 next Monday, I wouldn't be suprise.

[winner69]

Soulman ...... suppose you are into MQG (ex MBL) big time seeing the price down in the mid 60's

[soulman]

Sad to say so Winner but I bought more in the $76 zone. No more cash and too much going around with investment bank in the US and here. BNB also dropping like stone. At least MQG pays some dividend but that will all depends on future earnings. $1.45 DPS comin at end of Jan will soothe the pain somewhat. Just a little soothing though as capital losses are currently expanding exponentially.

Just hope MQG is not involve too much in the sub-prime and maybe possibly they can steal business from their US counterpart due to their publicity.

[Revhead]

I'm surprised anyone is buying shares in the finance/banking sectors. With the sub-prime fiasco and related monetary bad news, any shares with the slightest hint of involvment have been absolutely thrashed!! BNB and M. bank are case in point. BNB for example used to trade in the mid 30's. Now its in the very low 20's. This thrashing is despite the fact that BNB, for example, have virtually no exposure.

A real melt-down is on the cards and the banking stocks will get slaughtered when it happens.

Regardless of how cheap these shares look, now is not the time to be holding them! Just my opinion of course....

[soulman]

I am holding and hoping. No need to get panicky here. It might get worst but these subprime losses by the US and Europe banks will sort themselves out eventually. These losses will write themselves out overtime (could be 2 years) and then back to business. If anything, the investment bank will learn not to take these kind of risk later on.

Not buying as mistakes has been made.

[The Big Ease]

how many times do these guys need to tell the market they are clean before it is believed?

i bought in at 76 and am very tempted to buy some more at current prices. however, i suspect mqg will get battered when the investment banks announce further losses and/or the market takes another tumble.

they are at 10* earnings and growing 25% YOY. delayed asset sales will probably mean a bigger profit when the market normalises. i dont see any fundamental reason why this comp wont continue its merry profit growing ways.

i would love to get some opinions on this stock. why is the market so scared?

[soulman]

Big Ease, the reaction the other day was in synch with US investment bank. The retirement of Alan Moss played a part in that massive decline, although N Moore is highly regarded. The 23% increase in profit forecast should be beat as MQG usually understate and outperform. More like 25% when May comes.

The next year performance is what investors fret about. That's why market are scared ATM.

PE of 10 times and div yield more than 5.3% FF tells the tale of this FY. Next year, even with a 10% increase, MQG should roared back to their all-time high and should break $100.

I too bought at $76.

[The Big Ease]

it would be a brave man who thought MQG wouldnt grow earnings next year, given their record. if you note, the investment banks who have managed to avoid the sub-prime debacle are actually doing extremely well. trading conditions are still very very reasonable for those with strong balance sheets, cash on hand and minimal exposure to the sub-prime sector.