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  1. #3731
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    "They will be helped enormously by the massive delays in buying from overseas"

    Where do you think they get most of their stock?

  2. #3732
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    Quote Originally Posted by Clints View Post
    "They will be helped enormously by the massive delays in buying from overseas"

    Where do you think they get most of their stock?
    Ummm overseas? You're absolutely right clints but more relevant is that somebody buying a one-off online purchase could end up frustrated if there are delivery delays. Warehouse group stores will already have most/all their stock on hand ready for the season selling.
    Last edited by Habits; 13-01-2021 at 02:26 PM. Reason: Typo

  3. #3733
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    Quote Originally Posted by Clints View Post
    "They will be helped enormously by the massive delays in buying from overseas"

    Where do you think they get most of their stock?
    They seem to be keeping their supply chains going although there is likely some disruption. Point is customers will now buy whatever is there, as it is overnight delivery at the latest, rather than buy something in China that can now take literally months to arrive.

  4. #3734
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Bit more from Tom Fishbourne on 'Agility'

    I don't think 'agility' will fix The Warehouse because they don't really know what it means - but that's just my view
    '
    Anyway what Tom said -

    Next month marks the 20th anniversary of the Agile Manifesto. Twenty years ago, 17 software engineers went skiing in Utah. After bonding over their shared frustrations on the state of software development, they drafted the Manifesto for Agile Software Development.

    The principles they defined helped change software development forever, but also inspired more widespread organizational shifts. As the signers later put it,

    “This isn’t merely a software development problem, it runs throughout Dilbertesque organizations.”

    David Hieatt recently said that agile principles helped get his two businesses through the twists and turns of 2020:

    “Agile was no longer a nice management mindset, but how you saved your business. It bypassed adjective and went straight to a verb.”

    And yet, in spreading so mainstream, the concept of agile has lost much of its meaning. Like many business buzzwords, if you ask 10 co-workers what agile means, you may hear 10 different responses (or even more).

    One of the 17 original signers of the Agile Manifesto, Dave Thomas, wrote:

    “The word ‘agile’ has been subverted to the point where it is entirely meaningless.”

    For agile to stand for more than a buzzword, we have to define what we mean.
    I would argue that in software development it does mean something and is a tool that can be applied to some types of projects. However when you hear things like "Our IT department is moving to an agile approach to work" you can be very certain that those people have no idea what they are doing. It's about fitting the right tool to the right problem, agile for agiles sake would be wasteful and slow in many cases.

    It's the latest in a long line of these business fads where they start off meaning a specific principal but get so broadly abstracted as to be meaningless. Then the data comes in and it turns out adopting that approach produces no meaningful benefit for organisations because it's so poorly applied. I suspect many people already know this but need to keep up the corporate cheerleading for the sake of their careers.

  5. #3735
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    The current surge in the WHS shareprice is really stupendous and it hasn't stopped yet .... onwards and upwards I hope

    I still have a morbid fascination with things WHS and keep old stuff up to date

    I've updated this table - one I created years ago to remind myself that no matter how tempting WHS looks as a long term buy and hold investment it rarely is.

    It is one stock that defies the 'it's about time in the markets, not timing the markets' principle. Staying in WHS for long periods has not been that great a strategy - but timing the market has been very profitable.

    But then again there has not been many years buying WHS has produced above average results - and buying a year ago (or like ratkin in March last year) might have been one of those times.

    The table shows annual returns over many periods. It assumes you bought in July each year (WHS year end) and the returns include dividends.

    Read as if you bought in July 2006 at $4.74 your 1 year return was 31.8% (timing the market) but if held until today your 15 year return has been 2.0% pa (time in the market not good)

    Lots of red cells (negative returns) and a lot of orange cells (<5% pa returns) and not many green cells (above average returns)

    Probably boring as and relevant for most as these days things are different ........but I find it interesting - just an insight from my morbid fascination with some things.
    Last edited by winner69; 14-01-2021 at 07:52 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  6. #3736
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    The current surge in the WHS shareprice is really stupendous and it hasn't stopped yet .... onwards and upwards I hope

    I still have a morbid fascination with things WHS and keep old stuff up to date

    I've updated this table - one I created years ago to remind myself that no matter how tempting WHS looks as a long term buy and hold investment it rarely is.

    It is one stock that defies the 'it's about time in the markets, not timing the markets' principle. Staying in WHS for long periods has not been that great a strategy - but timing the market has been very profitable.

    But then again there has not been many years buying WHS has produced above average results - and buying a year ago (or like ratkin in March last year) might have been one of those times.

    The table shows annual returns over many periods. It assumes you bought in July each year (WHS year end) and the returns include dividends.

    Read as if you bought in July 2006 at $4.74 your 1 year return was 31.8% (timing the market) but if held until today your 15 year return has been 2.0% pa (time in the market not good)

    Lots of red cells (negative returns) and a lot of orange cells (<5% pa returns) and not many green cells (above average returns)

    Probably boring as and relevant for most as these days things are different ........but I find it interesting - just an insight from my morbid fascination with some things.
    Great work W69
    Just to clarify, I'm assuming the 2020 year still has six months to run until July 2021.. so it has potential to be the best performing year yet, mostly just the rebound. The company also seems very much stronger in terms of financial performance (higher gm on higher t/o) so I think that has not been factored in yet
    Last edited by Habits; 14-01-2021 at 10:48 AM.

  7. #3737
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Habits View Post
    Great work W69
    Just to clarify, I'm assuming the 2020 year still has six months to run until July 2021.. so it has potential to be the best performing year yet, mostly just the rebound. The company also seems very much stronger in terms of financial performance (higher gm on higher t/o) so I think that has not been factored in yet
    Yep just assumed July share price will be $3 odd ....so maybe a lot more to go.

    Exercise also also highlights the old adage of buy when PE is high and future returns aren’t that great ....and vice versa
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  8. #3738
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    The current surge in the WHS shareprice is really stupendous and it hasn't stopped yet .... onwards and upwards I hope

    I still have a morbid fascination with things WHS and keep old stuff up to date

    I've updated this table - one I created years ago to remind myself that no matter how tempting WHS looks as a long term buy and hold investment it rarely is.

    It is one stock that defies the 'it's about time in the markets, not timing the markets' principle. Staying in WHS for long periods has not been that great a strategy - but timing the market has been very profitable.

    But then again there has not been many years buying WHS has produced above average results - and buying a year ago (or like ratkin in March last year) might have been one of those times.

    The table shows annual returns over many periods. It assumes you bought in July each year (WHS year end) and the returns include dividends.

    Read as if you bought in July 2006 at $4.74 your 1 year return was 31.8% (timing the market) but if held until today your 15 year return has been 2.0% pa (time in the market not good)

    Lots of red cells (negative returns) and a lot of orange cells (<5% pa returns) and not many green cells (above average returns)

    Probably boring as and relevant for most as these days things are different ........but I find it interesting - just an insight from my morbid fascination with some things.
    When I bought I was firmly believing on "time in the market" and WHS has been my worse experience. I always says my learning increases everyday so in that regard last March it was hard for me to figure where the bottom was (to all the shares that I have in my watchlist). Neither I'd have thought of a recovery when I sold out a few months ago.

    Anyway, I still keep learning.

  9. #3739
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    things lining up for a great result and my guess div of 10 - 15c as a reward to s/h who have stuck with the company
    one step ahead of the herd

  10. #3740
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    things lining up for a great result and my guess div of 10 - 15c as a reward to s/h who have stuck with the company
    Whatever the dividend will be, it will be for any shareholder at registration date, has nothing to do with whether they stuck with the company for years ... or just bought them :

    But yes, I suppose most retailers will have a good result after this Christmas and a post-covid catchup ... though it is in my view not clear whether this allows extrapolations into the future.
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