WHS - Warehouse Group

[bull....]

Share price has sure reacted to paying the wage subsidy back, booming sales updates and restating dividends ....and even the prospects of a 20 cent divie over the full year

Share price now about $3.30 - a 7 year high -- and up 65% since October

Share price might even go 7 bucks again - the glory days of before the GFC etc ..... but as Springsteen says glory days often pass in the wink of a young girls eyes and 'A little of the glory of, well time slips away / And leaves you with nothing mister but
Boring stories of ... glory days'

I feel really bad that I (back in October I 9and to some extent percy) told Beagle why bother with WHS r and he sold o......t of what was going to be one of his high yielding shares. Why I feel really bad .... he could have been looking at maybe 15% plus yield (on what he paid) ...and would have got the 65% gain as well. Whatever he's probably done well with other things in the meantime.


- Momentum got me back in i(not that much) in spite of my bad view of Nick and the company ... I'm hoping for those glory days of 7 bucks again

in the last 3 mths

whs is up 29%
bgp is up 29%

and hallensteins is up 6.5% so as you say winner it looks like the winners were the stocks that paid the wage subsidy back

[winner69]

in the last 3 mths

whs is up 29%
bgp is up 29%

and hallensteins is up 6.5% so as you say winner it looks like the winners were the stocks that paid the wage subsidy back

Real spooky those comparisons

Might be saying that while HLG Board was acting in the best interests of shareholders by maximising shareholder wealth by keeping the subsidies they could actually have destroyed $100m of shareholder wealth because of less positive market sentiment towards them.

difference in market cap if share price had gone up 29% instead of 7%

[BlackPeter]

in the last 3 mths

whs is up 29%
bgp is up 29%

and hallensteins is up 6.5% so as you say winner it looks like the winners were the stocks that paid the wage subsidy back

In the last 12 months:

WHS is up 57%
BGP is up 53%

HLG is up 57%

It appears the decision whether to pay back or not makes no difference at all in the medium run - HLG just ramped up a bit earlier than the laggards WHS and BGP;

[winner69]

In the last 12 months:

WHS is up 57%
BGP is up 53%

HLG is up 57%

It appears the decision whether to pay back or not makes no difference at all in the medium run - HLG just ramped up a bit earlier than the laggards WHS and BGP;

Recent sentiment is what matters more

HLG meant to be 9 bucks by now according to some ...but something has held it back ..hmmm

[Beagle]

WHS certainly has been a surprise and they are doing well at present converting sales momentum into bottom line profit, that's for sure !
Don't feel bad mate, I can think for myself. I don't ever expect that every decision I make to buy or sell will be a winner but I did use the WHS sale proceeds as part of the funding to back up the truck on OCA at just on $1. 45% inclusive of dividend is not too shabby for the last 6 months with them, especially on top of the 100% profit on the first big tranche of them I bought back in May 2020..

I can't quite work out how WHS have been so successful at translating sales momentum to the bottom line given they're facing the same supply chain and transportation issues as other retailers ? Noel Leeming as we've discussed before several times is without any doubt the jewel in their crown...I guess sales there must be absolutely on fire and at close to full retail. Maybe there's been widespread buying of fridge-freezers to sure up their food reserves ?

How much of the current profitability and sales boom will be durable going forward is the $64,000 question ? Thoughts on second half profitability ?

Revised guidance is that H1 FY21 Adjusted NPAT will exceed $110m, compared to
a figure of $46.2m in H1 FY20. The half year result is still subject to the
finalisation of audit review.

People seem more interested in debating the ESG issue, (impossible for me to overstate how incredibly bored I am with that extremely repetitive nonsense) than actually trying to have a go at this $64,000 question....go figure ?

I guess seeing as nobody else will opine on it I will have a best guess.
1. Currency tailwinds look likely to prevail for the foreseeable future.
2. I have always said the most reliable indicator of the near term future is the near term past and will stick to that core belief.
3. Almost certain that some of the current half boom is people updating electronics and whiteware after the lockdown and some people buying more freezer capacity as a prudent measure to sure up their future food stock in the event of future lockdown(s), perfectly understandable and I've done this myself.

I reckon $70-80m net profit after tax is a reasonable enough guess, (and a guess is all it is) for second half profit. Mid point is $75m and add first half profit = $185m for FY21 which on 346.8m shares = 53.3 cps.
At $3.40 that puts them on a forward PE of just 6.4. Hmmm... TA looks compelling too.

[winner69]

People seem more interested in debating the ESG issue, (impossible for me to overstate how incredibly bored I am with that extremely repetitive nonsense) than actually trying to have a go at this $64,000 question....go figure ?

I guess seeing as nobody else will opine on it I will have a best guess.
1. Currency tailwinds look likely to prevail for the foreseeable future.
2. I have always said the most reliable indicator of the near term future is the near term past and will stick to that core belief.
3. Almost certain that some of the current half boom is people updating electronics and whiteware after the lockdown and some people buying more freezer capacity as a prudent measure to sure up their future food stock in the event of future lockdown(s), perfectly understandable and I've done this myself.

I reckon $70-80m net profit after tax is a reasonable enough guess, (and a guess is all it is) for second half profit. Mid point is $75m and add first half profit = $185m for FY21 which on 346.8m shares = 53.3 cps.
At $3.40 that puts them on a forward PE of just 6.4. Hmmm... TA looks compelling too.

Don’t forget the cash mountains ...probably well over $200m now



.......after paying the $68m welfare back too

[bull....]

cash pile easliy support a 10c dividend or more hopefully

[Beagle]

Don’t forget the cash mountains ...probably well over $200m now
.......after paying the $68m welfare back too

Haven't forgotten about their strong cash position.
I'm a numbers man, (its my life's work) and also believe TA matters but I am more than happy to leave the endlessly repetitive ESG nonsense to "experts" like you

[Rawz]

Good to see that WHS has been getting some attention from the ST legends of late as I am a recently new investor.

Bought in on the back of a text i got from a buddy of mine who is in lower management at their big depot out at Wiri.

He knows I like to put money into shares.. the text read along the lines of- ' you should put some money into Warehouse because every morning I sit in these planning meetings and volumes are always increasing, especially during lockdowns'.

Goodie.

[ratkin]

Very nice dividend today, can’t beat a decent dividend paying stock. Always makes me want to buy more